From 00fd8148d2754e58658b433ea522d918e689bb29 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Dhrumil Mehta Date: Mon, 17 Aug 2020 09:35:43 -0500 Subject: [PATCH] 2020 forecast data update (#43) * add scenario analysis and economic_index data to 2020 forecasts --- election-forecasts-2020/README.md | 22 ++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 22 insertions(+) diff --git a/election-forecasts-2020/README.md b/election-forecasts-2020/README.md index a0ce8da..caf11b3 100644 --- a/election-forecasts-2020/README.md +++ b/election-forecasts-2020/README.md @@ -3,6 +3,8 @@ files: - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_national_toplines_2020.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_state_toplines_2020.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_ev_probabilities_2020.csv + - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_scenario_analysis_2020.csv + - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/economic_index.csv --- # election-forecasts-2020 @@ -70,3 +72,23 @@ Column | Description `evprob_chal` | Chance that the challenger wins `total_ev` electoral votes `evprob_3rd` | Chance that the third-party candidate wins `total_ev` electoral votes `total_ev` | Number of electoral votes in question + +`presidential_scenario_analysis_2020.csv` contains the forecasted chances of various possible election outcome scenarios. This sheet contains the following additional columns: + +Column | Description +-------|------------ +`scenario_id` | A unique identifier for each scenario +`probability` | The forecasted chance that the scenario will happen +`scenario_description` | A description of the scenario in question + + +`economic_index.csv` contains economic indicators that serve as inputs to the forecast. For more information on these indicators, see [this post](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/measuring-the-effect-of-the-economy-on-elections/). The economic indexes were collected from the [Federal Reserve Bank Of St. Louis]( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96) and the stock prices data from [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/). This sheet contains the following additional columns: + +Column | Description +-------|------------ +`indicator` | Name of the economic indicator +`category` | What that indicator helps measure +`current_zscore` | Number of standard deviations from the previous 2-year average for the current value of the indicator +`projected_zscore` | Number of standard deviations from the previous 2-year average for the projected value of the indicator on Election Day +`projected_hi` | Upper bound of an 80% confidence interval for `projected_zscore` +`projected_lo` | Lower bound of an 80% confidence interval for `projected_zscore`