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+"Please enter your information and your polling organization's information. We won't publish your pollster ID, phone number and email address." "Which pollster did the best job in terms of Iowa horse-race numbers? (For your reference, here are links to Democratic and Republican polls.)" Why do you say that? "Which pollster did the worst job in terms of Iowa horse-race numbers? (For your reference, here are links to Democratic and Republican polls.)" Why do you say that? Which mode of polling was most successful in Iowa? How do you think polling in Iowa did overall? Was it a successful night for polls? How do you think your polling organization's polling in Iowa did overall? Was it a successful night for your polls? "What lessons, if any, should the polling industry learn from its polls in Iowa and the results of the caucuses about polling in the future in Iowa?" "What lessons, if any, should pollsters learn from Iowa that they can apply to primary polls in New Hampshire?" "What lessons, if any, will your polling organization learn from Iowa that you can apply to primary polls in New Hampshire and other states?" "Where do you expect Donald Trump to finish in New Hampshire (he led by 20 points early Tuesday morning)?" Who do you expect will be the Democratic nominee for president in the 2016 election? Who do you expect will be the Republican nominee for president in the 2016 election? What question or questions would you want us to ask your fellow pollsters in future rounds of this poll?
Respondent Name Polling Organization Open-Ended Response Open-Ended Response Open-Ended Response Open-Ended Response Live telephone IVR (Interactive Voice Response) Online Please explain your answer: Yes No Not sure Please explain your answer. Yes No Not sure Please explain your answer. Open-Ended Response Open-Ended Response Open-Ended Response Win by 20 percentage points or more Win by 10-19 points Win by 0-9 points Second place Third place Fourth place or worse Please explain your answer. Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Other (please specify) Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Ben Carson Jeb Bush Chris Christie Rand Paul Carly Fiorina John Kasich Rick Santorum Jim Gilmore Other (please specify) Open-Ended Response
Mack Shelley Iowa State University YouGov and Iowa State University for Democrats and Douglas Fulmer and Associates for Republicans "Correctly predicted the winners and closest to actual percentage outcomes. Pleeas note that the Iowa State University January poll had the Democratic race within the margin of error (Clinton +2) and Cruz +7 (a little high, but the correct outcome)." "Gravis, among the recent Democratic polls; Public Policy Polling, among the recent Republican polls." "Wrong winner, and off by a lot of percentage points." Live telephone Not sure "Both contests were quite volatile, and with large numbers of new participants, it is very difficult to have an accurate sampling frame, particularly to track late deciders." Yes "We had both winners correctly, although overstated their margins of victory (if you can refer to the Democratic outcome as a ""victory"" for either Clinton or Sanders)." "Use a good sampling frame, work with people who have boots-on-the-ground experience in the state, and be very careful to understand the local context of retail politics." "Probably not too much, although campaigns should learn not to overinterpret poll results they like or dismiss unfavorable poll results." We don't plan to poll in New Hampshire. Win by 0-9 points "Trump clearly is somewhat damaged goods from the Iowa result and he will have a more difficult time making his pitch of being a ""winner.""" Hillary Clinton Marco Rubio "It would be good to compare information about sampling frames and differential outcomes based on phone, personal interview, and online results."
Tom Jensen Public Policy Polling This question oversimplifies matters "This is a lot more complicated than simply declaring winners and losers. Clearly there was a large shift in the last few days in the Republican race; that's borne out in the exit polls. Props to Emerson College Polling Society for polling later than anyone else and picking up on that, but it doesn't mean the rest of the industry that stopped polling earlier did ""bad."" It just means things changed after their field periods ended. Similarly there was a shift to Bernie Sanders at the caucus sites because O'Malley supporters moved toward him when he failed to reach viability. So it was closer than the polls but that's partially because of the structure of the election that can't be taken into account with topline numbers." This question oversimplifies matters "Basically the same points as above. I think Selzer for instance is taking a lot of unfair criticism. Her poll was probably correct at the time she did it. It's unreasonable to think that everything is going to stay in amber as soon as her field period ends. You could probably look at the toplines from our GOP poll and say it was terrible, but if you actually read the analysis we wrote and our deeper look into the numbers, we anticipated some of what happened last night. It's very incomplete to just look at the toplines and say someone was ""good"" or ""bad."" Here's what we wrote last Thursday about our poll even as it had Trump ahead: ""There are reasons within these numbers to see the possibility of both Cruz and Rubio out performing their current standing on Monday night. Currently 30% of the likely electorate is supporting someone among the also rans- the 9 candidates in single digits. But 43% of those voters are open to the possibility of changing their minds- possibly casting a strategic vote. And among that group supporting the also rans 35% say they would pick Rubio, 25% say they would pick Cruz, and 17% say they would pick Trump if they had to choose between the leading contenders. That creates a real possibility if enough of those people really do end up peeling off for Rubio to get a surprise 20 or 25% on Monday night that gives him the momentum to be successful further down the road. Cruz is smart to try to frame the race as a one on one choice between him and Trump. Among supporters of the also rans, 50% say they'd vote for Cruz if they had to pick between the two leading contenders to only 21% who say they would cast their lot with Trump. Overall Cruz leads Trump 47/40 head to head- supporters of all 10 other candidates say they would vote for Cruz before they would vote for Trump. That means Cruz still has the real potential for victory if he can get enough of those people to gravitate to him in an effort to stop Trump.""" "I don't think there was any clear answer to this. Again, props to Emerson College Polling Society, but their success had more to do with their timing than their mode." Not sure "If you judge the polls solely based on whether their topline numbers matched the results last night, then no. But most polls finished up four, five days before the actual voting. Entrance polls showed that many voters made up their minds in the closing stretch and that they were much more likely to move toward Rubio or Cruz than Trump. Trump did lead among people who had made up their minds earlier. Polling found there were a lot of voters open to changing their minds, and there's also a lot of strategic voting that occurs in Iowa. It's not really reasonable to expect polling to pick up on those kinds of shifts before they even happen -- sometimes on Election Day itself. So I don't think the hit either the polling industry itself or that aggregators like FiveThirtyEight are getting is fair in this instance. If this was a general election and the polls were off by the same degree, sure. In a low-turnout caucus with a million candidates on the ballot? I don't think the industry really did that bad. The polls may very well have been right at the time they were conducted; things move fast in the closing stretch of these races." Not sure "If you look at just the toplines of our last polls, we did bad. But based on the underlying number,s we explained ahead of time why Rubio might do surprisingly well and suggested he could get 20-25%. We explained why if voters ended up seeing it as a choice between Cruz and Trump, it would benefit Cruz. We explained that O'Malley's support was likely to mostly disperse to Sanders and cause that to be a tighter race. Polling is about a lot more than just what your final topline numbers are, especially when you're polling a caucus and your field period ends five days before the election. I think a lot of the underlying analysis we did of our numbers proved to be very on target." "I guess if there's a lesson, it's to keep on polling through the night before the election. But polling's never been more expensive so I don't know how many organizations really have the resources to do more than they already are." "The debate Thursday night and Trump's nonappearance could have contributed to some of the shifts that happened in the closing stretch. The problem with waiting to poll until after the debates in New Hampshire is you have one Saturday night, then you have Super Bowl Sunday. So it's basically impossible to poll in New Hampshire after the debates at a time when you will reasonably be able to reach people. We are leaning toward skipping polling New Hampshire for that reason." See above "Not going to make any predictions, not based on hard data. Who knows at this point." Hillary Clinton Marco Rubio
Spencer Kimball Emerson College Emerson and YouGov Emerson poll showed Rubio and Cruz moving up and Trump dropping between the two polls in the last 10 days. YouGov was closest on the Democratic side. Des Moines Register "They continue to undercount the evangelicals in the GOP side. Huckabee and Santorum both did better in 2008 and 2012, as did Cruz in 2016 then their poll numbers projected." Yes "The GOP side showed a clear top 3, and the polls on the Democratic side showed both Clinton and Sanders with leads suggesting variance in the electorate. The method of caucus voting is very difficult to project because of the uniqueness of the voting process and I think even harder on the Democratic side, which relies on a delegate vote and not a popular vote." Yes "We saw Trump dropping and Cruz and Rubio moving up toward the finish. On the Democratic side, we undercounted young voters and will look into whether our regions reflected proper turnout based on delegate allocation." A different methodology should be employed for the Democratic caucus because of the uniqeness of the voting procedure. Turnout will be high this year. Turnout projections are clearer seeing what happened in Iowa. Win by 0-9 points "Assuming Rubio gets a bump and Cruz, I see the race tightening over the week, but since get-out-the-vote is easier in New Hampshire then Iowa, I see Trump's magnetism getting 25-30% of the vote. But I think the race is fluid and Rubio could springboard over the pack if GOP moderates leave Bush and Kasich." Hillary Clinton Marco Rubio
Doug Kaplan Gravis Marketing I am not sure at this point. The Democratic caucus was very tough for automated calls because of the difference of 18-29 voters to the rest of the Democratic caucus voters. Not sure "I think overall on the Republican side, we were ahead of the curve on Carson and Trump. On the Democratic side we were not as successful as we wanted to be. We have made adjustments moving forward." "We showed Cruz gaining; unfortunately we did not poll post-debate. Cruz gained in the raw numbers and weighted numbers. We asked a question yes-no are you an evangelical or a born-again christian. Internally when we weighted based on that question, we showed Cruz leading by two. We obviously did not release that, because we could not change our methods a few days before an election. We did not perform well on the Democratic side; the 18-29 year old voters using automated calls was the issue. We will be be making changes moving forward to adjust that." Look for the trend at the end. "Yes we have made adjustments moving forward: less weighting and more quotas, especially on age." Win by 0-9 points "The open primary system in NH and SC should help Mr. Trump. Iowa was tough for him because of the expectation game. It should have never been a state he won to begin with. Many unknowns in New Hampshire, Kasich, Christie, Rand, and Jeb. How much of a bounce will Rubio and Cruz get? Who else will drop out before?" Hillary Clinton Marco Rubio
Matthew Towery Opinion Savvy Opinion Savvy "While I don't like the idea of voting for myself, we were the closest in terms of the Republican spread. We went into the field later and saw the Rubio surge, which no one else (apart from Emerson) captured. The Democratic side was a wash, but to her credit, Selzer was ostensibly closest." Quinnipiac "Not only did Quinnipiac release a very late poll, but their numbers were off on both sides. They called the Republican caucus for Trump by one of the highest margins, and they called the Democratic caucus for Sanders. It doesn't get much worse than that." No "It wasn't a total disaster, but most of the polls failed to capture some of the basic trends. I don't know if it was simply that some were in the field too early, or if their screening, turnout, and weighting models were just off. Nevertheless, this will likely go down in history as the worst round of modern polling for the Iowa caucus to date." Yes "I covered this earlier, but honestly? I couldn't be happier with the result; (OK, if Trump had won by 1 point, I would be even happier). We caught Trump's fall and Rubio's rise; our screening process seemed to have worked very well; our turnout estimates were close; and we made it through the barrage of criticism following release. Incidentally, the only thing that I think we overestimated was the support for Rand Paul -- his supporters either didn't show up, or otherwise gave in to another candidate. Nevertheless, we had a great night." "Lesson #1: Screening. I threw in a question that asked whether respondents knew the location of their caucus (e.g. school, church), and excluded all who didn't know. Trump's support was overstated, and Cruz's ground force managed to both inform and mobilize folks who otherwise might have stayed home. Lesson #2: Don't pull a Quinnipiac and stay in the field for six days, then release a poll the day before caucusing. Yuge mistake." Win by 10-19 points "Honestly, I haven't been following New Hampshire closely, and I will not be polling there. It appears to be solid Trump territory, but if we've learned anything from Iowa, it's that Trump's support is often overstated. I'll call it a win, but not by 20 points."
Christine Matthews Burning Glass Consulting No "Polling for the Iowa caucus is the toughest type of polling to do, and this year, with so many Republican candidates, including one who was wholly unconventional, it was even more challenging. I would also argue that as campaigns become more sophisticated using data and voter information to drive turnout, it is difficult for a poll to fully capture the impact these campaign efforts have on turnout (i.e. Cruz's ground game and evangelicals last night). That said, it can't be argued that the polling was successful. Moving ahead to New Hampshire (where there have been high-profile misses and AAPOR studies of what has gone wrong with polling in the state), it won't be much easier. Determining turnout levels and intentions of undeclared voters who are -- right now -- making up their minds and could choose the Democratic or Republican ballot will be critical to polling success." Not sure Our focus has been New Hampshire -- we weren't polling Iowa these past few months. "Stay in the field until the night before the event, if possible."
Christopher Budzisz Loras College Not sure "As FiveThirtyEight and others always remind their readers, polling in caucuses is more difficult than primaries, which are more difficult than general elections. I don't think the public's perceptions of polling will really be impacted much by caucus polling results." Not sure "On the Republican side, I think we preformed well throughout the caucus cycle and captured the various trends and ups and downs (e.g., Carson's temporary rise, Rubio's rise in the last month, etc.) and did well up and down the ballot. On the Democratic side, we weren't as successful. We will be taking a much closer postmortem look at the Democratic side of things to see what was happening and why."
Brock McCleary Harper Polling
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+"Which pollster did the best job in terms of Iowa horse-race numbers? (For your reference, here are links to Democratic and Republican polls.)" Why do you say that? "Which pollster did the worst job in terms of Iowa horse-race numbers? (For your reference, here are links to Democratic and Republican polls.)" Why do you say that? Which mode of polling was most successful in Iowa? How do you think polling in Iowa did overall? Was it a successful night for polls? How do you think your polling organization's polling in Iowa did overall? Was it a successful night for your polls? "What lessons, if any, should the polling industry learn from its polls in Iowa and the results of the caucuses about polling in the future in Iowa?" "What lessons, if any, should pollsters learn from Iowa that they can apply to primary polls in New Hampshire?" "What lessons, if any, will your polling organization learn from Iowa that you can apply to primary polls in New Hampshire and other states?" "Where do you expect Donald Trump to finish in New Hampshire (he led by 20 points early Tuesday morning)?" Who do you expect will be the Democratic nominee for president in the 2016 election? Who do you expect will be the Republican nominee for president in the 2016 election? What question or questions would you want us to ask your fellow pollsters in future rounds of this poll?
Open-Ended Response Open-Ended Response Open-Ended Response Open-Ended Response Live telephone IVR (Interactive Voice Response) Online Please explain your answer: Yes No Not sure Please explain your answer. Yes No Not sure Please explain your answer. Open-Ended Response Open-Ended Response Open-Ended Response Win by 20 percentage points or more Win by 10-19 points Win by 0-9 points Second place Third place Fourth place or worse Please explain your answer. Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Other (please specify) Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Ben Carson Jeb Bush Chris Christie Rand Paul Carly Fiorina John Kasich Rick Santorum Jim Gilmore Other (please specify) Open-Ended Response
Democrats: YouGov; Republicans: Opinion Savvy Democrats: Gravis Marketing; Republicans: Gravis Marketing Live telephone "I wish there was a ""toss-up"" category here. Results were decidedly mixed, with some IVR and online/phone blends performing about as well as some of the live caller polls (e.g., Emerson's last poll compared to Quinnipiac's last)." No Not sure "I think more folks staying in the field longer would probably be beneficial. Also, I think many of us will want to examine some ways to better use registration-list samples (given contacts in the lists without phone numbers, non-working numbers, etc.)." Don't poll in New Hampshire Win by 10-19 points Hillary Clinton Donald Trump "Better explanation of Internet polling. Is it emails, Facebook, have them define panels? Do they change the weights often? What criteria do they weigh?"
N/A Des Moines Register/Selzer "There is no one who knows Iowa caucus polling better than Ann Selzer and she missed not only the horse race, but also the composition of the electorate (i.e. evangelicals)." "Haven't examined. Most were live telephone, I believe." "Old-fashioned politics still works; political consultants, ground game, data, and pollsters matter." Win by 0-9 points Hillary Clinton Marco Rubio
Selzer and Co. "Caucus polling is always difficult, and this year was especially difficult. In answering this question I am focusing most on polling that took place in the last two weeks of the race. The Selzer poll captured the general trends of the race well, and while the final poll may have been a little wide of the mark on Trump, it was very good a further down the ballot as it nailed Carson and Paul's support. Some late polling may have captured the narrower gap between Trump and Cruz, but Selzer was stronger up and down with the top five. Judging the Democratic side is inherently problematic given that vote totals are not reported--just the delegate equivalents. I think an honorable mention should go out to Emerson College for their last Republican poll as they captured Rubio's strong finish very well. Given their methodology and relatively small sample size, they did well with this last Republican poll. They were likely wider of the mark with the Democratic one (but, again, it is hard to say that definitively)." Public Policy Polling "Again, polling the caucus is tough stuff, and I am just focusing on the polling in the final two weeks for a consideration of the horserace. PPP was wide of the mark on both sides, Democratic and Republican, despite relatively large sample sizes." IVR (Interactive Voice Response) Second place "There is not a lot of time for a huge swing, but I think it is possible. There is a real ceiling to Trump's support, and I think we will be seeing him bounce up against it as the field narrows and more voters cast their ballots. I expect Trump to have a rough time going forward. His lack of favorability within the party's primary electorate, coupled with his baggage for a general election, make him a very unlikely nominee. Cruz's victory in Iowa is actually not surprising given that he is a candidate more suited to Iowa and his ground game was superior (high support amongst evangelicals, etc.). Beyond Iowa, things are rough for Cruz, as well." Hillary Clinton Marco Rubio
IVR (Interactive Voice Response) "I am biased since this is the method we used, but our poll saw Trump surge 10 days out and then saw it tighten. I was surprised to see online work well as when we tested it (unofficial and unreleased data). Bernie was ahead by double digits."
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