diff --git a/forecast-methodology/README.md b/forecast-methodology/README.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..11c07bf
--- /dev/null
+++ b/forecast-methodology/README.md
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+### Airline safety data
+
+The data behind the story, [Here’s What’s Under The Hood Of Our Senate Forecasting Model](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-whats-under-the-hood-of-our-senate-forecasting-model)
+
+Header | Definition
+---|---------
+`state` | Election
+`year` | Year of election
+`candidate` | Last name
+`forecast_prob` | Probability of winning election per FiveThirtyEight Election Day forecast
+`result` | `Win` or `Loss`
+
+For archived results, see:
+
+ * *2008* https://web.archive.org/web/20081106113055/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
+ * *2010* http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate
+ * *2012* http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/
diff --git a/forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions.csv b/forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..1de2ae1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions.csv
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+state,year,candidate,forecast_prob,result,winflag
Alabama,2008,Sessions,1.00,Win,1
Alabama,2008,Figures,0.00,Lose,0
Alabama,2010,Shelby,1.00,Win,1
Alabama,2010,Barnes,0.00,Loss,0
Alaska,2008,Begich,1.00,Win,1
Alaska,2008,Stevens,0.00,Lose,0
Alaska,2010,Miller,0.71,Lose,0
Alaska,2010,Murkowski,0.21,Win,1
Alaska,2010,McAdams,0.08,Loss,0
Arizona,2010,Glassman,1.00,Win,1
Arizona,2010,McCain,0.00,Loss,0
Arizona,2012,Flake,0.96,Win,1
Arizona,2012,Carmona,0.04,Loss,0
Arkansas,2008,Pryor,1.00,Win,1
Arkansas,2010,Boozman,1.00,Win,1
Arkansas,2010,Lincoln,0.00,Loss,0
California,2012,Feinstein,1.00,Win,1
California,2012,Emken,0.00,Loss,0
Colorado,2008,M. Udall,1.00,Win,1
Colorado,2008,Schaeffer,0.00,Lose,0
Colorado,2010,Buck,0.65,Loss,0
Colorado,2010,Bennett,0.35,Win,1
Connecticut,2010,Blumenthal,1.00,Win,1
Connecticut,2010,McMahon,0.00,Loss,0
Connecticut,2012,Murphy,0.96,Win,1
Connecticut,2012,McMahon,0.04,Loss,0
Delaware,2008,Biden,1.00,Win,1
Delaware,2008,O'Connell,0.00,Lose,0
Delaware,2010,Coons,1.00,Win,1
Delaware,2010,O'Donnell,0.00,Loss,0
Delaware,2012,Carper,1.00,Win,1
Delaware,2012,Wade,0.00,Loss,0
Florida,2010,Rubio,0.97,Win,1
Florida,2010,Crist,0.03,Loss,0
Florida,2010,Meeks,0.00,Loss,0
Florida,2012,Nelson,1.00,Win,1
Florida,2012,Mack,0.00,Loss,0
Georgia,2008,Chambilss,0.88,Win,1
Georgia,2008,Martin,0.12,Lose,0
Georgia,2010,Isakson,1.00,Win,1
Georgia,2010,Thurmond,0.00,Loss,0
Hawaii,2010,Inouye,1.00,Win,1
Hawaii,2010,Cavasso,0.00,Loss,0
Hawaii,2012,Hirono,1.00,Win,1
Hawaii,2012,Lingle,0.00,Loss,0
Idaho,2008,Risch,1.00,Win,1
Idaho,2008,LaRocco,0.00,Lose,0
Idaho,2010,Crapo,1.00,Win,1
Idaho,2010,Sullivan,0.00,Loss,0
Illinois,2008,Durbin,1.00,Win,1
Illinois,2008,Sauerberg,0.00,Lose,0
Illinois,2010,Kirk,0.69,Win,1
Illinois,2010,Giannoulias,0.31,Loss,0
Indiana,2010,Coats,1.00,Win,1
Indiana,2010,Ellsworth,0.00,Loss,0
Indiana,2012,Donnelly,0.70,Win,1
Indiana,2012,Lingle,0.30,Loss,0
Iowa,2008,Harkin,1.00,Win,1
Iowa,2008,Reed,0.00,Lose,0
Iowa,2010,Grassley,1.00,Win,1
Iowa,2010,Conlin,0.00,Loss,0
Kansas,2008,Roberts,1.00,Win,1
Kansas,2008,Slattery,0.00,Lose,0
Kansas,2010,Moran,1.00,Win,1
Kansas,2010,Johnston,0.00,Loss,0
Kentucky,2008,McConnell,0.92,Win,1
Kentucky,2008,Lunsford,0.08,Lose,0
Kentucky,2010,Paul,1.00,Win,1
Kentucky,2010,Conway,0.00,Loss,0
Louisiana,2008,Landireu,1.00,Win,1
Louisiana,2008,Kennedy,0.00,Lose,0
Louisiana,2010,Vitter,1.00,Win,1
Louisiana,2010,Melancon,0.00,Loss,0
Maine,2008,Collins,1.00,Win,1
Maine,2008,Allen,0.00,Lose,0
Maine,2012,King,0.93,Win,1
Maine,2012,Summers,0.06,Loss,0
Maine,2012,Dill,0.01,Loss,0
Maryland,2010,Murkowski,1.00,Win,1
Maryland,2010,Wargotz,0.00,Loss,0
Maryland,2012,Cardin,1.00,Win,1
Maryland,2012,Bongino,0.00,Loss,0
Massachusetts,2008,Kerry,1.00,Win,1
Massachusetts,2008,Beatty,0.00,Lose,0
Massachusetts,2012,Warren,0.94,Win,1
Massachusetts,2012,Brown,0.06,Loss,0
Michigan,2008,Levin,1.00,Win,1
Michigan,2008,Hoogendyk,0.00,Lose,0
Michigan,2012,Stabenow,1.00,Win,1
Michigan,2012,Hoekstra,0.00,Loss,0
Minnesota,2008,Franken,0.52,Win,1
Minnesota,2008,Coleman,0.48,Lose,0
Minnesota,2012,Klobuchar,1.00,Win,1
Minnesota,2012,Bills,0.00,Loss,0
Mississippi,2008,Cochran,1.00,Win,1
Mississippi,2008,Fleming,0.00,Lose,0
Mississippi,2012,Wicker,1.00,Win,1
Mississippi,2012,Gore,0.00,Loss,0
Mississippi (special election),2008,Wicker,0.94,Win,1
Mississippi (special election),2008,Musgrove,0.06,Lose,0
Missouri,2010,Blunt,0.99,Win,1
Missouri,2010,Carnahan,0.01,Loss,0
Missouri,2012,McCaskill,0.98,Win,1
Missouri,2012,Akin,0.02,Loss,0
Montana,2008,Baucus,1.00,Win,1
Montana,2008,Kelleher,0.00,Lose,0
Montana,2012,Rehberg,0.66,Win,1
Montana,2012,Tester,0.34,Loss,0
Nebraska,2008,Johanns,0.99,Win,1
Nebraska,2008,Kleeb,0.01,Lose,0
Nebraska,2012,Fischer,0.99,Win,1
Nebraska,2012,Kerrey,0.01,Loss,0
Nevada,2010,Angle,0.83,Loss,0
Nevada,2010,Reid,0.17,Win,1
Nevada,2012,Heller,0.83,Win,1
Nevada,2012,Berkeley,0.17,Loss,0
New Hampshire,2008,Shaheen,0.99,Win,1
New Hampshire,2008,Sununu,0.01,Lose,0
New Hampshire,2010,Ayotte,1.00,Win,1
New Hampshire,2010,Hodes,0.00,Loss,0
New Jersey,2008,Lautenberg,1.00,Win,1
New Jersey,2008,Zimmer,0.00,Lose,0
New Jersey,2012,Menendez,1.00,Win,1
New Jersey,2012,Kyrillos,0.00,Loss,0
New Mexico,2008,T. Udall,1.00,Win,1
New Mexico,2008,Pearce,0.00,Lose,0
New Mexico,2012,Heinrich,0.97,Win,1
New Mexico,2012,Wilson,0.03,Loss,0
New York,2010,Schumer,1.00,Win,1
New York,2010,Townsend,0.00,Loss,0
New York,2012,Gillibrand,1.00,Win,1
New York,2012,Long,0.00,Loss,0
New York (special election),2010,Gillibrand,1.00,Win,1
New York (special election),2010,DioGuardi,0.00,Loss,0
North Carolina,2008,Hagan,0.88,Win,1
North Carolina,2008,Dole,0.12,Lose,0
North Carolina,2010,Burr,1.00,Win,1
North Carolina,2010,Marshall,0.00,Loss,0
North Dakota,2010,Hoeven,1.00,Win,1
North Dakota,2010,Potter,0.00,Loss,0
North Dakota,2012,Berg,0.92,Loss,0
North Dakota,2012,Heitkamp,0.08,Win,1
Ohio,2010,Portman,1.00,Win,1
Ohio,2010,Fisher,0.00,Loss,0
Ohio,2012,Brown,0.97,Win,1
Ohio,2012,Mandel,0.03,Loss,0
Oklahoma,2008,Inhofe,1.00,Win,1
Oklahoma,2008,Rice,0.00,Lose,0
Oklahoma,2010,Coburn,1.00,Win,1
Oklahoma,2010,Rogers,0.00,Loss,0
Oregon,2008,Merkley,0.92,Win,1
Oregon,2008,Smith,0.08,Lose,0
Oregon,2010,Wyden,1.00,Win,1
Oregon,2010,Huffman,0.00,Loss,0
Pennsylvania,2010,Toomey,0.97,Win,1
Pennsylvania,2010,Sestak,0.03,Loss,0
Pennsylvania,2012,Casey,0.99,Win,1
Pennsylvania,2012,Smith,0.01,Loss,0
Rhode Island,2008,Reed,1.00,Win,1
Rhode Island,2008,Tingle,0.00,Lose,0
Rhode Island,2012,Whitehouse,1.00,Win,1
Rhode Island,2012,Hinkley,0.00,Loss,0
South Carolina,2008,Graham,1.00,Win,1
South Carolina,2008,Conley,0.00,Lose,0
South Carolina,2010,DeMint,1.00,Win,1
South Carolina,2010,Greene,0.00,Loss,0
South Dakota,2008,Johnson,1.00,Win,1
South Dakota,2008,Dykstra,0.00,Lose,0
South Dakota,2010,Thune,1.00,Win,1
Tennessee,2008,Alexander,1.00,Win,1
Tennessee,2008,Tuke,0.00,Lose,0
Tennessee,2012,Corker,1.00,Win,1
Tennessee,2012,Clayton,0.00,Loss,0
Texas,2008,Cornyn,1.00,Win,1
Texas,2008,Noriega,0.00,Lose,0
Texas,2012,Cruz,1.00,Win,1
Texas,2012,Sadler,0.00,Loss,0
Utah,2010,Lee,1.00,Win,1
Utah,2010,Granato,0.00,Loss,0
Utah,2012,Hatch,1.00,Win,1
Utah,2012,Lowell,0.00,Loss,0
Vermont,2010,Leahy,1.00,Win,1
Vermont,2010,Britton,0.00,Loss,0
Vermont,2012,Sanders,1.00,Win,1
Vermont,2012,MacGovern,0.00,Loss,0
Virginia,2008,Warner,1.00,Win,1
Virginia,2008,Gilmore,0.00,Lose,0
Virginia,2012,Kaine,0.88,Win,1
Virginia,2012,Allen,0.12,Loss,0
Washington,2010,Murray,0.80,Win,1
Washington,2010,Rossi,0.20,Loss,0
Washington,2012,Cantwell,0.88,Win,1
Washington,2012,Baumgartner,0.12,Loss,0
West Virginia,2010,Manchin,0.89,Win,1
West Virginia,2010,Raese,0.11,Loss,0
West Virginia,2012,Manchin,0.92,Win,1
West Virginia,2012,Raese,0.08,Loss,0
Wisconsin,2010,Johnson,0.97,Win,1
Wisconsin,2010,Feingold,0.03,Loss,0
Wisconsin,2012,Thompson,0.79,Win,1
Wisconsin,2012,Baldwin,0.21,Loss,0
Wyoming,2008,Enzi,1.00,Win,1
Wyoming,2008,Rothfuss,0.00,Lose,0
Wyoming,2012,Barrasso,1.00,Win,1
Wyoming,2012,Chestnut,0.00,Loss,0
Wyoming (special election),2008,Barrasso,1.00,Win,1
Wyoming (special election),2008,Carter,0.00,Lose,0
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/forecast-methodology/senate-calibration.csv b/forecast-methodology/senate-calibration.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..1de2ae1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/forecast-methodology/senate-calibration.csv
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+state,year,candidate,forecast_prob,result,winflag
Alabama,2008,Sessions,1.00,Win,1
Alabama,2008,Figures,0.00,Lose,0
Alabama,2010,Shelby,1.00,Win,1
Alabama,2010,Barnes,0.00,Loss,0
Alaska,2008,Begich,1.00,Win,1
Alaska,2008,Stevens,0.00,Lose,0
Alaska,2010,Miller,0.71,Lose,0
Alaska,2010,Murkowski,0.21,Win,1
Alaska,2010,McAdams,0.08,Loss,0
Arizona,2010,Glassman,1.00,Win,1
Arizona,2010,McCain,0.00,Loss,0
Arizona,2012,Flake,0.96,Win,1
Arizona,2012,Carmona,0.04,Loss,0
Arkansas,2008,Pryor,1.00,Win,1
Arkansas,2010,Boozman,1.00,Win,1
Arkansas,2010,Lincoln,0.00,Loss,0
California,2012,Feinstein,1.00,Win,1
California,2012,Emken,0.00,Loss,0
Colorado,2008,M. Udall,1.00,Win,1
Colorado,2008,Schaeffer,0.00,Lose,0
Colorado,2010,Buck,0.65,Loss,0
Colorado,2010,Bennett,0.35,Win,1
Connecticut,2010,Blumenthal,1.00,Win,1
Connecticut,2010,McMahon,0.00,Loss,0
Connecticut,2012,Murphy,0.96,Win,1
Connecticut,2012,McMahon,0.04,Loss,0
Delaware,2008,Biden,1.00,Win,1
Delaware,2008,O'Connell,0.00,Lose,0
Delaware,2010,Coons,1.00,Win,1
Delaware,2010,O'Donnell,0.00,Loss,0
Delaware,2012,Carper,1.00,Win,1
Delaware,2012,Wade,0.00,Loss,0
Florida,2010,Rubio,0.97,Win,1
Florida,2010,Crist,0.03,Loss,0
Florida,2010,Meeks,0.00,Loss,0
Florida,2012,Nelson,1.00,Win,1
Florida,2012,Mack,0.00,Loss,0
Georgia,2008,Chambilss,0.88,Win,1
Georgia,2008,Martin,0.12,Lose,0
Georgia,2010,Isakson,1.00,Win,1
Georgia,2010,Thurmond,0.00,Loss,0
Hawaii,2010,Inouye,1.00,Win,1
Hawaii,2010,Cavasso,0.00,Loss,0
Hawaii,2012,Hirono,1.00,Win,1
Hawaii,2012,Lingle,0.00,Loss,0
Idaho,2008,Risch,1.00,Win,1
Idaho,2008,LaRocco,0.00,Lose,0
Idaho,2010,Crapo,1.00,Win,1
Idaho,2010,Sullivan,0.00,Loss,0
Illinois,2008,Durbin,1.00,Win,1
Illinois,2008,Sauerberg,0.00,Lose,0
Illinois,2010,Kirk,0.69,Win,1
Illinois,2010,Giannoulias,0.31,Loss,0
Indiana,2010,Coats,1.00,Win,1
Indiana,2010,Ellsworth,0.00,Loss,0
Indiana,2012,Donnelly,0.70,Win,1
Indiana,2012,Lingle,0.30,Loss,0
Iowa,2008,Harkin,1.00,Win,1
Iowa,2008,Reed,0.00,Lose,0
Iowa,2010,Grassley,1.00,Win,1
Iowa,2010,Conlin,0.00,Loss,0
Kansas,2008,Roberts,1.00,Win,1
Kansas,2008,Slattery,0.00,Lose,0
Kansas,2010,Moran,1.00,Win,1
Kansas,2010,Johnston,0.00,Loss,0
Kentucky,2008,McConnell,0.92,Win,1
Kentucky,2008,Lunsford,0.08,Lose,0
Kentucky,2010,Paul,1.00,Win,1
Kentucky,2010,Conway,0.00,Loss,0
Louisiana,2008,Landireu,1.00,Win,1
Louisiana,2008,Kennedy,0.00,Lose,0
Louisiana,2010,Vitter,1.00,Win,1
Louisiana,2010,Melancon,0.00,Loss,0
Maine,2008,Collins,1.00,Win,1
Maine,2008,Allen,0.00,Lose,0
Maine,2012,King,0.93,Win,1
Maine,2012,Summers,0.06,Loss,0
Maine,2012,Dill,0.01,Loss,0
Maryland,2010,Murkowski,1.00,Win,1
Maryland,2010,Wargotz,0.00,Loss,0
Maryland,2012,Cardin,1.00,Win,1
Maryland,2012,Bongino,0.00,Loss,0
Massachusetts,2008,Kerry,1.00,Win,1
Massachusetts,2008,Beatty,0.00,Lose,0
Massachusetts,2012,Warren,0.94,Win,1
Massachusetts,2012,Brown,0.06,Loss,0
Michigan,2008,Levin,1.00,Win,1
Michigan,2008,Hoogendyk,0.00,Lose,0
Michigan,2012,Stabenow,1.00,Win,1
Michigan,2012,Hoekstra,0.00,Loss,0
Minnesota,2008,Franken,0.52,Win,1
Minnesota,2008,Coleman,0.48,Lose,0
Minnesota,2012,Klobuchar,1.00,Win,1
Minnesota,2012,Bills,0.00,Loss,0
Mississippi,2008,Cochran,1.00,Win,1
Mississippi,2008,Fleming,0.00,Lose,0
Mississippi,2012,Wicker,1.00,Win,1
Mississippi,2012,Gore,0.00,Loss,0
Mississippi (special election),2008,Wicker,0.94,Win,1
Mississippi (special election),2008,Musgrove,0.06,Lose,0
Missouri,2010,Blunt,0.99,Win,1
Missouri,2010,Carnahan,0.01,Loss,0
Missouri,2012,McCaskill,0.98,Win,1
Missouri,2012,Akin,0.02,Loss,0
Montana,2008,Baucus,1.00,Win,1
Montana,2008,Kelleher,0.00,Lose,0
Montana,2012,Rehberg,0.66,Win,1
Montana,2012,Tester,0.34,Loss,0
Nebraska,2008,Johanns,0.99,Win,1
Nebraska,2008,Kleeb,0.01,Lose,0
Nebraska,2012,Fischer,0.99,Win,1
Nebraska,2012,Kerrey,0.01,Loss,0
Nevada,2010,Angle,0.83,Loss,0
Nevada,2010,Reid,0.17,Win,1
Nevada,2012,Heller,0.83,Win,1
Nevada,2012,Berkeley,0.17,Loss,0
New Hampshire,2008,Shaheen,0.99,Win,1
New Hampshire,2008,Sununu,0.01,Lose,0
New Hampshire,2010,Ayotte,1.00,Win,1
New Hampshire,2010,Hodes,0.00,Loss,0
New Jersey,2008,Lautenberg,1.00,Win,1
New Jersey,2008,Zimmer,0.00,Lose,0
New Jersey,2012,Menendez,1.00,Win,1
New Jersey,2012,Kyrillos,0.00,Loss,0
New Mexico,2008,T. Udall,1.00,Win,1
New Mexico,2008,Pearce,0.00,Lose,0
New Mexico,2012,Heinrich,0.97,Win,1
New Mexico,2012,Wilson,0.03,Loss,0
New York,2010,Schumer,1.00,Win,1
New York,2010,Townsend,0.00,Loss,0
New York,2012,Gillibrand,1.00,Win,1
New York,2012,Long,0.00,Loss,0
New York (special election),2010,Gillibrand,1.00,Win,1
New York (special election),2010,DioGuardi,0.00,Loss,0
North Carolina,2008,Hagan,0.88,Win,1
North Carolina,2008,Dole,0.12,Lose,0
North Carolina,2010,Burr,1.00,Win,1
North Carolina,2010,Marshall,0.00,Loss,0
North Dakota,2010,Hoeven,1.00,Win,1
North Dakota,2010,Potter,0.00,Loss,0
North Dakota,2012,Berg,0.92,Loss,0
North Dakota,2012,Heitkamp,0.08,Win,1
Ohio,2010,Portman,1.00,Win,1
Ohio,2010,Fisher,0.00,Loss,0
Ohio,2012,Brown,0.97,Win,1
Ohio,2012,Mandel,0.03,Loss,0
Oklahoma,2008,Inhofe,1.00,Win,1
Oklahoma,2008,Rice,0.00,Lose,0
Oklahoma,2010,Coburn,1.00,Win,1
Oklahoma,2010,Rogers,0.00,Loss,0
Oregon,2008,Merkley,0.92,Win,1
Oregon,2008,Smith,0.08,Lose,0
Oregon,2010,Wyden,1.00,Win,1
Oregon,2010,Huffman,0.00,Loss,0
Pennsylvania,2010,Toomey,0.97,Win,1
Pennsylvania,2010,Sestak,0.03,Loss,0
Pennsylvania,2012,Casey,0.99,Win,1
Pennsylvania,2012,Smith,0.01,Loss,0
Rhode Island,2008,Reed,1.00,Win,1
Rhode Island,2008,Tingle,0.00,Lose,0
Rhode Island,2012,Whitehouse,1.00,Win,1
Rhode Island,2012,Hinkley,0.00,Loss,0
South Carolina,2008,Graham,1.00,Win,1
South Carolina,2008,Conley,0.00,Lose,0
South Carolina,2010,DeMint,1.00,Win,1
South Carolina,2010,Greene,0.00,Loss,0
South Dakota,2008,Johnson,1.00,Win,1
South Dakota,2008,Dykstra,0.00,Lose,0
South Dakota,2010,Thune,1.00,Win,1
Tennessee,2008,Alexander,1.00,Win,1
Tennessee,2008,Tuke,0.00,Lose,0
Tennessee,2012,Corker,1.00,Win,1
Tennessee,2012,Clayton,0.00,Loss,0
Texas,2008,Cornyn,1.00,Win,1
Texas,2008,Noriega,0.00,Lose,0
Texas,2012,Cruz,1.00,Win,1
Texas,2012,Sadler,0.00,Loss,0
Utah,2010,Lee,1.00,Win,1
Utah,2010,Granato,0.00,Loss,0
Utah,2012,Hatch,1.00,Win,1
Utah,2012,Lowell,0.00,Loss,0
Vermont,2010,Leahy,1.00,Win,1
Vermont,2010,Britton,0.00,Loss,0
Vermont,2012,Sanders,1.00,Win,1
Vermont,2012,MacGovern,0.00,Loss,0
Virginia,2008,Warner,1.00,Win,1
Virginia,2008,Gilmore,0.00,Lose,0
Virginia,2012,Kaine,0.88,Win,1
Virginia,2012,Allen,0.12,Loss,0
Washington,2010,Murray,0.80,Win,1
Washington,2010,Rossi,0.20,Loss,0
Washington,2012,Cantwell,0.88,Win,1
Washington,2012,Baumgartner,0.12,Loss,0
West Virginia,2010,Manchin,0.89,Win,1
West Virginia,2010,Raese,0.11,Loss,0
West Virginia,2012,Manchin,0.92,Win,1
West Virginia,2012,Raese,0.08,Loss,0
Wisconsin,2010,Johnson,0.97,Win,1
Wisconsin,2010,Feingold,0.03,Loss,0
Wisconsin,2012,Thompson,0.79,Win,1
Wisconsin,2012,Baldwin,0.21,Loss,0
Wyoming,2008,Enzi,1.00,Win,1
Wyoming,2008,Rothfuss,0.00,Lose,0
Wyoming,2012,Barrasso,1.00,Win,1
Wyoming,2012,Chestnut,0.00,Loss,0
Wyoming (special election),2008,Barrasso,1.00,Win,1
Wyoming (special election),2008,Carter,0.00,Lose,0
\ No newline at end of file