From cb446bc0e28f9ffcf996f2dd77251409f3ec2471 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: ryan Date: Wed, 6 Oct 2021 12:03:26 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 1/4] add README for nhl-forecasts --- nhl-forecasts/README.md | 40 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 40 insertions(+) create mode 100644 nhl-forecasts/README.md diff --git a/nhl-forecasts/README.md b/nhl-forecasts/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2e47280 --- /dev/null +++ b/nhl-forecasts/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,40 @@ +--- +files: + - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nhl-api/nhl_elo.csv + - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nhl-api/nhl_elo_latest.csv +--- +# NHL Elo + +This file contains links to the data behind our [NHL Predictions](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nhl-predictions/). More information on how our NHL Elo model works can be found in [this article](https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nhl-predictions-work/). + +`nhl_elo.csv` contains game-by-game Elo ratings and forecasts since the NHL's inaugural 1917-18 season. + +`nhl_elo_latest.csv` contains game-by-game Elo ratings and forecasts for only the latest NHL season. + + +Column | Definition +-----| --------- +season | Year of season +date | Date of game +playoff | Whether game was in playoffs +neutral | Whether game was on a neutral site +status | `post` if the game already happened; `pre` if it hasn't happened yet; `live` if it is being played at the time of data export +ot | Overtime status: `OT` if the game ended in overtime, `SO` if the game ended in a shootout, blank if the game ended in regulation or if the game hasn't happened yet (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games) +home_team | Home team name +away_team | Away team name +home_team_abbr | Home team abbreviation. Multiple team names can fall under the same team_abbr because of name changes or moves. Interactive is grouped by team_abbr. +away_team_abbr | Away team abbreviation. Multiple team names can fall under the same team_abbr because of name changes or moves. Interactive is grouped by team_abbr. +home_team_pregame_rating | Home team's Elo rating before the game +away_team_pregame_rating | Away team's Elo rating before the game +home_team_winprob | Home team's probability of winning according to team pregame ratings +away_team_winprob | Away team's probability of winning according to team pregame ratings +overtime_prob | Probability that the game ends in overtime according to team pregame ratings (including shootouts) +home_team_expected_points | Home team's expected points earned at the time the game started according to team pregame ratings (2 points for a win, 1 point for a loss in overtime) +away_team_expected_points | Away team's expected points earned at the time the game started according to team pregame ratings (2 points for a win, 1 point for a loss in overtime or shootout) +home_team_score | Home team's score (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games) +away_team_score | Away team's score (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games) +home_team_postgame_rating | Home team's rating after the game (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games) +away_team_postgame_rating | Away team's rating after the game (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games) +game_quality_rating | Rating of game's quality, based on the harmonic mean of the teams’ pregame Elo ratings, scaled from 0-100 +game_importance_rating | Rating of game's importance, based on how much the result would affect the model's forecasted playoff odds, scaled from 0-100. For `post` games, this rating is as of when the game started. (will be blank for all games played prior to 2021-22 season, the year we added a NHL forecast) +game_quality_rating | The average of `game_quality_rating` and `game_importance_rating` (will be blank for all games played prior to 2021-22 season, the year we added a NHL forecast) From 404f1804513c05632ae73e2fd9df1e873cbb9da6 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: ryan Date: Wed, 6 Oct 2021 12:53:52 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 2/4] change 2021 --> 2022 --- nhl-forecasts/README.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/nhl-forecasts/README.md b/nhl-forecasts/README.md index 2e47280..306b478 100644 --- a/nhl-forecasts/README.md +++ b/nhl-forecasts/README.md @@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ files: --- # NHL Elo -This file contains links to the data behind our [NHL Predictions](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nhl-predictions/). More information on how our NHL Elo model works can be found in [this article](https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nhl-predictions-work/). +This file contains links to the data behind our [NHL Predictions](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nhl-predictions/). More information on how our NHL Elo model works can be found in [this article](https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nhl-predictions-work/). `nhl_elo.csv` contains game-by-game Elo ratings and forecasts since the NHL's inaugural 1917-18 season. From 723087636dcbc2c97180b4c22f731dabe51d4a60 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: ryan Date: Wed, 6 Oct 2021 15:30:50 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 3/4] multiple overtimes --- nhl-forecasts/README.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/nhl-forecasts/README.md b/nhl-forecasts/README.md index 306b478..9e83e65 100644 --- a/nhl-forecasts/README.md +++ b/nhl-forecasts/README.md @@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ date | Date of game playoff | Whether game was in playoffs neutral | Whether game was on a neutral site status | `post` if the game already happened; `pre` if it hasn't happened yet; `live` if it is being played at the time of data export -ot | Overtime status: `OT` if the game ended in overtime, `SO` if the game ended in a shootout, blank if the game ended in regulation or if the game hasn't happened yet (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games) +ot | Overtime status: `OT` if the game ended in overtime, `SO` if the game ended in a shootout, blank if the game ended in regulation or if the game hasn't happened yet (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games). Games that went into multiple overtimes have the number of overtimes listed before `OT`: `2OT`, `3OT`, etc. home_team | Home team name away_team | Away team name home_team_abbr | Home team abbreviation. Multiple team names can fall under the same team_abbr because of name changes or moves. Interactive is grouped by team_abbr. From 910f43e171add9667029d19f852568550f4dac67 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: ryan Date: Wed, 6 Oct 2021 17:47:18 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 4/4] address copy edits --- nhl-forecasts/README.md | 8 ++++---- 1 file changed, 4 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-) diff --git a/nhl-forecasts/README.md b/nhl-forecasts/README.md index 9e83e65..89cc8c7 100644 --- a/nhl-forecasts/README.md +++ b/nhl-forecasts/README.md @@ -16,8 +16,8 @@ Column | Definition -----| --------- season | Year of season date | Date of game -playoff | Whether game was in playoffs -neutral | Whether game was on a neutral site +playoff | Whether game was a playoff game +neutral | Whether game was played at a neutral site status | `post` if the game already happened; `pre` if it hasn't happened yet; `live` if it is being played at the time of data export ot | Overtime status: `OT` if the game ended in overtime, `SO` if the game ended in a shootout, blank if the game ended in regulation or if the game hasn't happened yet (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games). Games that went into multiple overtimes have the number of overtimes listed before `OT`: `2OT`, `3OT`, etc. home_team | Home team name @@ -29,8 +29,8 @@ away_team_pregame_rating | Away team's Elo rating before the game home_team_winprob | Home team's probability of winning according to team pregame ratings away_team_winprob | Away team's probability of winning according to team pregame ratings overtime_prob | Probability that the game ends in overtime according to team pregame ratings (including shootouts) -home_team_expected_points | Home team's expected points earned at the time the game started according to team pregame ratings (2 points for a win, 1 point for a loss in overtime) -away_team_expected_points | Away team's expected points earned at the time the game started according to team pregame ratings (2 points for a win, 1 point for a loss in overtime or shootout) +home_team_expected_points | Home team's expected points earned at the time the game started, according to team pregame ratings (2 points for a win, 1 point for a loss in overtime) +away_team_expected_points | Away team's expected points earned at the time the game started, according to team pregame ratings (2 points for a win, 1 point for a loss in overtime or shootout) home_team_score | Home team's score (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games) away_team_score | Away team's score (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games) home_team_postgame_rating | Home team's rating after the game (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games)