From cb446bc0e28f9ffcf996f2dd77251409f3ec2471 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: ryan Date: Wed, 6 Oct 2021 12:03:26 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] add README for nhl-forecasts --- nhl-forecasts/README.md | 40 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 40 insertions(+) create mode 100644 nhl-forecasts/README.md diff --git a/nhl-forecasts/README.md b/nhl-forecasts/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2e47280 --- /dev/null +++ b/nhl-forecasts/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,40 @@ +--- +files: + - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nhl-api/nhl_elo.csv + - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nhl-api/nhl_elo_latest.csv +--- +# NHL Elo + +This file contains links to the data behind our [NHL Predictions](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nhl-predictions/). More information on how our NHL Elo model works can be found in [this article](https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nhl-predictions-work/). + +`nhl_elo.csv` contains game-by-game Elo ratings and forecasts since the NHL's inaugural 1917-18 season. + +`nhl_elo_latest.csv` contains game-by-game Elo ratings and forecasts for only the latest NHL season. + + +Column | Definition +-----| --------- +season | Year of season +date | Date of game +playoff | Whether game was in playoffs +neutral | Whether game was on a neutral site +status | `post` if the game already happened; `pre` if it hasn't happened yet; `live` if it is being played at the time of data export +ot | Overtime status: `OT` if the game ended in overtime, `SO` if the game ended in a shootout, blank if the game ended in regulation or if the game hasn't happened yet (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games) +home_team | Home team name +away_team | Away team name +home_team_abbr | Home team abbreviation. Multiple team names can fall under the same team_abbr because of name changes or moves. Interactive is grouped by team_abbr. +away_team_abbr | Away team abbreviation. Multiple team names can fall under the same team_abbr because of name changes or moves. Interactive is grouped by team_abbr. +home_team_pregame_rating | Home team's Elo rating before the game +away_team_pregame_rating | Away team's Elo rating before the game +home_team_winprob | Home team's probability of winning according to team pregame ratings +away_team_winprob | Away team's probability of winning according to team pregame ratings +overtime_prob | Probability that the game ends in overtime according to team pregame ratings (including shootouts) +home_team_expected_points | Home team's expected points earned at the time the game started according to team pregame ratings (2 points for a win, 1 point for a loss in overtime) +away_team_expected_points | Away team's expected points earned at the time the game started according to team pregame ratings (2 points for a win, 1 point for a loss in overtime or shootout) +home_team_score | Home team's score (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games) +away_team_score | Away team's score (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games) +home_team_postgame_rating | Home team's rating after the game (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games) +away_team_postgame_rating | Away team's rating after the game (will be blank for `pre` and `live` games) +game_quality_rating | Rating of game's quality, based on the harmonic mean of the teams’ pregame Elo ratings, scaled from 0-100 +game_importance_rating | Rating of game's importance, based on how much the result would affect the model's forecasted playoff odds, scaled from 0-100. For `post` games, this rating is as of when the game started. (will be blank for all games played prior to 2021-22 season, the year we added a NHL forecast) +game_quality_rating | The average of `game_quality_rating` and `game_importance_rating` (will be blank for all games played prior to 2021-22 season, the year we added a NHL forecast)