From ccc252922483c594dd5b4d1edf88b4eae1fbfe83 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Jay Boice Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 11:26:51 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] Add WWC match probabilities --- womens-world-cup-predictions/README.md | 16 +++++++- .../wwc-matches-20150602-093000.csv | 37 +++++++++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 52 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150602-093000.csv diff --git a/womens-world-cup-predictions/README.md b/womens-world-cup-predictions/README.md index 70340cc..94fff3a 100644 --- a/womens-world-cup-predictions/README.md +++ b/womens-world-cup-predictions/README.md @@ -1,6 +1,10 @@ ### 2015 Women's World Cup tournament predictions -FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: `wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv`. All times are in EDT. +FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT. + +#### Overall forecasts + +Overall forecasts are stored in files named like `wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv`. Header | Definition ---|--------- @@ -20,6 +24,16 @@ Header | Definition __Note:__ These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A `win` probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations. +#### Match probabilities + +Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like `wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv`. + +Header | Definition +---|--------- +`team1_win` | The probability that team1 will beat team2 +`team2_win` | The probability that team2 will beat team1 +`tie` | The probability the game will end in a tie + For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, [click here](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/womens-world-cup/). For an explanation of WSPI, [click here](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-womens-world-cup-model-works/). \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150602-093000.csv b/womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150602-093000.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f2e3573 --- /dev/null +++ b/womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150602-093000.csv @@ -0,0 +1,37 @@ +date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie +2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,0.60631040,0.18163693,0.21205266 +2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.28198239,0.48122291,0.23679471 +2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,0.85205770,0.03486549,0.11307681 +2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,0.93303357,0.00563435,0.06133208 +2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.58416865,0.19815679,0.21767456 +2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,0.71195575,0.11006236,0.17798189 +2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,0.68316007,0.12837415,0.18846577 +2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,0.68646793,0.12622442,0.18730765 +2015-06-09,F,France,England,0.49540385,0.26973298,0.23486317 +2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.66244071,0.14210944,0.19544986 +2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.30909423,0.45075205,0.24015372 +2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,0.65239143,0.14893813,0.19867044 +2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.70071919,0.11709944,0.18218136 +2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,0.35041876,0.40654999,0.24303125 +2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.53949870,0.23309406,0.22740724 +2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.67870936,0.13128540,0.19000524 +2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,0.47318333,0.28902992,0.23778675 +2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,0.80622804,0.05674543,0.13702653 +2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.57582327,0.20451983,0.21965690 +2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,0.78403885,0.06833690,0.14762425 +2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.79888832,0.06051082,0.14060085 +2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,0.64063990,0.15706108,0.20229902 +2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,0.62653930,0.16700293,0.20645776 +2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.65077393,0.15004739,0.19917867 +2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00405491,0.95117263,0.04477245 +2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.10419151,0.72150623,0.17430226 +2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.20329669,0.57741985,0.21928345 +2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.45202932,0.30793570,0.24003498 +2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00473921,0.94328374,0.05197705 +2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.48802450,0.27607843,0.23589707 +2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.07662540,0.76884479,0.15452981 +2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.27644015,0.48760602,0.23595383 +2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.09493516,0.73691591,0.16814893 +2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.69672830,0.11963233,0.18363936 +2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.02389599,0.87785713,0.09824688 +2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.36650530,0.39002297,0.24347174