538data/forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions.csv

1	state	year	candidate	forecast_prob	result	winflag Alabama	2008	Sessions	1.00	Win	1 Alabama	2008	Figures	0.00	Lose	0 Alabama	2010	Shelby	1.00	Win	1 Alabama	2010	Barnes	0.00	Loss	0 Alaska	2008	Begich	1.00	Win	1 Alaska	2008	Stevens	0.00	Lose	0 Alaska	2010	Miller	0.71	Lose	0 Alaska	2010	Murkowski	0.21	Win	1 Alaska	2010	McAdams	0.08	Loss	0 Arizona	2010	Glassman	1.00	Win	1 Arizona	2010	McCain	0.00	Loss	0 Arizona	2012	Flake	0.96	Win	1 Arizona	2012	Carmona	0.04	Loss	0 Arkansas	2008	Pryor	1.00	Win	1 Arkansas	2010	Boozman	1.00	Win	1 Arkansas	2010	Lincoln	0.00	Loss	0 California	2012	Feinstein	1.00	Win	1 California	2012	Emken	0.00	Loss	0 Colorado	2008	M. Udall	1.00	Win	1 Colorado	2008	Schaeffer	0.00	Lose	0 Colorado	2010	Buck	0.65	Loss	0 Colorado	2010	Bennett	0.35	Win	1 Connecticut	2010	Blumenthal	1.00	Win	1 Connecticut	2010	McMahon	0.00	Loss	0 Connecticut	2012	Murphy	0.96	Win	1 Connecticut	2012	McMahon	0.04	Loss	0 Delaware	2008	Biden	1.00	Win	1 Delaware	2008	O'Connell	0.00	Lose	0 Delaware	2010	Coons	1.00	Win	1 Delaware	2010	O'Donnell	0.00	Loss	0 Delaware	2012	Carper	1.00	Win	1 Delaware	2012	Wade	0.00	Loss	0 Florida	2010	Rubio	0.97	Win	1 Florida	2010	Crist	0.03	Loss	0 Florida	2010	Meeks	0.00	Loss	0 Florida	2012	Nelson	1.00	Win	1 Florida	2012	Mack	0.00	Loss	0 Georgia	2008	Chambilss	0.88	Win	1 Georgia	2008	Martin	0.12	Lose	0 Georgia	2010	Isakson	1.00	Win	1 Georgia	2010	Thurmond	0.00	Loss	0 Hawaii	2010	Inouye	1.00	Win	1 Hawaii	2010	Cavasso	0.00	Loss	0 Hawaii	2012	Hirono	1.00	Win	1 Hawaii	2012	Lingle	0.00	Loss	0 Idaho	2008	Risch	1.00	Win	1 Idaho	2008	LaRocco	0.00	Lose	0 Idaho	2010	Crapo	1.00	Win	1 Idaho	2010	Sullivan	0.00	Loss	0 Illinois	2008	Durbin	1.00	Win	1 Illinois	2008	Sauerberg	0.00	Lose	0 Illinois	2010	Kirk	0.69	Win	1 Illinois	2010	Giannoulias	0.31	Loss	0 Indiana	2010	Coats	1.00	Win	1 Indiana	2010	Ellsworth	0.00	Loss	0 Indiana	2012	Donnelly	0.70	Win	1 Indiana	2012	Lingle	0.30	Loss	0 Iowa	2008	Harkin	1.00	Win	1 Iowa	2008	Reed	0.00	Lose	0 Iowa	2010	Grassley	1.00	Win	1 Iowa	2010	Conlin	0.00	Loss	0 Kansas	2008	Roberts	1.00	Win	1 Kansas	2008	Slattery	0.00	Lose	0 Kansas	2010	Moran	1.00	Win	1 Kansas	2010	Johnston	0.00	Loss	0 Kentucky	2008	McConnell	0.92	Win	1 Kentucky	2008	Lunsford	0.08	Lose	0 Kentucky	2010	Paul	1.00	Win	1 Kentucky	2010	Conway	0.00	Loss	0 Louisiana	2008	Landireu	1.00	Win	1 Louisiana	2008	Kennedy	0.00	Lose	0 Louisiana	2010	Vitter	1.00	Win	1 Louisiana	2010	Melancon	0.00	Loss	0 Maine	2008	Collins	1.00	Win	1 Maine	2008	Allen	0.00	Lose	0 Maine	2012	King	0.93	Win	1 Maine	2012	Summers	0.06	Loss	0 Maine	2012	Dill	0.01	Loss	0 Maryland	2010	Murkowski	1.00	Win	1 Maryland	2010	Wargotz	0.00	Loss	0 Maryland	2012	Cardin	1.00	Win	1 Maryland	2012	Bongino	0.00	Loss	0 Massachusetts	2008	Kerry	1.00	Win	1 Massachusetts	2008	Beatty	0.00	Lose	0 Massachusetts	2012	Warren	0.94	Win	1 Massachusetts	2012	Brown	0.06	Loss	0 Michigan	2008	Levin	1.00	Win	1 Michigan	2008	Hoogendyk	0.00	Lose	0 Michigan	2012	Stabenow	1.00	Win	1 Michigan	2012	Hoekstra	0.00	Loss	0 Minnesota	2008	Franken	0.52	Win	1 Minnesota	2008	Coleman	0.48	Lose	0 Minnesota	2012	Klobuchar	1.00	Win	1 Minnesota	2012	Bills	0.00	Loss	0 Mississippi	2008	Cochran	1.00	Win	1 Mississippi	2008	Fleming	0.00	Lose	0 Mississippi	2012	Wicker	1.00	Win	1 Mississippi	2012	Gore	0.00	Loss	0 Mississippi (special election)	2008	Wicker	0.94	Win	1 Mississippi (special election)	2008	Musgrove	0.06	Lose	0 Missouri	2010	Blunt	0.99	Win	1 Missouri	2010	Carnahan	0.01	Loss	0 Missouri	2012	McCaskill	0.98	Win	1 Missouri	2012	Akin	0.02	Loss	0 Montana	2008	Baucus	1.00	Win	1 Montana	2008	Kelleher	0.00	Lose	0 Montana	2012	Rehberg	0.66	Win	1 Montana	2012	Tester	0.34	Loss	0 Nebraska	2008	Johanns	0.99	Win	1 Nebraska	2008	Kleeb	0.01	Lose	0 Nebraska	2012	Fischer	0.99	Win	1 Nebraska	2012	Kerrey	0.01	Loss	0 Nevada	2010	Angle	0.83	Loss	0 Nevada	2010	Reid	0.17	Win	1 Nevada	2012	Heller	0.83	Win	1 Nevada	2012	Berkeley	0.17	Loss	0 New Hampshire	2008	Shaheen	0.99	Win	1 New Hampshire	2008	Sununu	0.01	Lose	0 New Hampshire	2010	Ayotte	1.00	Win	1 New Hampshire	2010	Hodes	0.00	Loss	0 New Jersey	2008	Lautenberg	1.00	Win	1 New Jersey	2008	Zimmer	0.00	Lose	0 New Jersey	2012	Menendez	1.00	Win	1 New Jersey	2012	Kyrillos	0.00	Loss	0 New Mexico	2008	T. Udall	1.00	Win	1 New Mexico	2008	Pearce	0.00	Lose	0 New Mexico	2012	Heinrich	0.97	Win	1 New Mexico	2012	Wilson	0.03	Loss	0 New York	2010	Schumer	1.00	Win	1 New York	2010	Townsend	0.00	Loss	0 New York	2012	Gillibrand	1.00	Win	1 New York	2012	Long	0.00	Loss	0 New York (special election)	2010	Gillibrand	1.00	Win	1 New York (special election)	2010	DioGuardi	0.00	Loss	0 North Carolina	2008	Hagan	0.88	Win	1 North Carolina	2008	Dole	0.12	Lose	0 North Carolina	2010	Burr	1.00	Win	1 North Carolina	2010	Marshall	0.00	Loss	0 North Dakota	2010	Hoeven	1.00	Win	1 North Dakota	2010	Potter	0.00	Loss	0 North Dakota	2012	Berg	0.92	Loss	0 North Dakota	2012	Heitkamp	0.08	Win	1 Ohio	2010	Portman	1.00	Win	1 Ohio	2010	Fisher	0.00	Loss	0 Ohio	2012	Brown	0.97	Win	1 Ohio	2012	Mandel	0.03	Loss	0 Oklahoma	2008	Inhofe	1.00	Win	1 Oklahoma	2008	Rice	0.00	Lose	0 Oklahoma	2010	Coburn	1.00	Win	1 Oklahoma	2010	Rogers	0.00	Loss	0 Oregon	2008	Merkley	0.92	Win	1 Oregon	2008	Smith	0.08	Lose	0 Oregon	2010	Wyden	1.00	Win	1 Oregon	2010	Huffman	0.00	Loss	0 Pennsylvania	2010	Toomey	0.97	Win	1 Pennsylvania	2010	Sestak	0.03	Loss	0 Pennsylvania	2012	Casey	0.99	Win	1 Pennsylvania	2012	Smith	0.01	Loss	0 Rhode Island	2008	Reed	1.00	Win	1 Rhode Island	2008	Tingle	0.00	Lose	0 Rhode Island	2012	Whitehouse	1.00	Win	1 Rhode Island	2012	Hinkley	0.00	Loss	0 South Carolina	2008	Graham	1.00	Win	1 South Carolina	2008	Conley	0.00	Lose	0 South Carolina	2010	DeMint	1.00	Win	1 South Carolina	2010	Greene	0.00	Loss	0 South Dakota	2008	Johnson	1.00	Win	1 South Dakota	2008	Dykstra	0.00	Lose	0 South Dakota	2010	Thune	1.00	Win	1 Tennessee	2008	Alexander	1.00	Win	1 Tennessee	2008	Tuke	0.00	Lose	0 Tennessee	2012	Corker	1.00	Win	1 Tennessee	2012	Clayton	0.00	Loss	0 Texas	2008	Cornyn	1.00	Win	1 Texas	2008	Noriega	0.00	Lose	0 Texas	2012	Cruz	1.00	Win	1 Texas	2012	Sadler	0.00	Loss	0 Utah	2010	Lee	1.00	Win	1 Utah	2010	Granato	0.00	Loss	0 Utah	2012	Hatch	1.00	Win	1 Utah	2012	Lowell	0.00	Loss	0 Vermont	2010	Leahy	1.00	Win	1 Vermont	2010	Britton	0.00	Loss	0 Vermont	2012	Sanders	1.00	Win	1 Vermont	2012	MacGovern	0.00	Loss	0 Virginia	2008	Warner	1.00	Win	1 Virginia	2008	Gilmore	0.00	Lose	0 Virginia	2012	Kaine	0.88	Win	1 Virginia	2012	Allen	0.12	Loss	0 Washington	2010	Murray	0.80	Win	1 Washington	2010	Rossi	0.20	Loss	0 Washington	2012	Cantwell	0.88	Win	1 Washington	2012	Baumgartner	0.12	Loss	0 West Virginia	2010	Manchin	0.89	Win	1 West Virginia	2010	Raese	0.11	Loss	0 West Virginia	2012	Manchin	0.92	Win	1 West Virginia	2012	Raese	0.08	Loss	0 Wisconsin	2010	Johnson	0.97	Win	1 Wisconsin	2010	Feingold	0.03	Loss	0 Wisconsin	2012	Thompson	0.79	Win	1 Wisconsin	2012	Baldwin	0.21	Loss	0 Wyoming	2008	Enzi	1.00	Win	1 Wyoming	2008	Rothfuss	0.00	Lose	0 Wyoming	2012	Barrasso	1.00	Win	1 Wyoming	2012	Chestnut	0.00	Loss	0 Wyoming (special election)	2008	Barrasso	1.00	Win	1 Wyoming (special election)	2008	Carter	0.00	Lose	0