538data/forecast-methodology

Historical FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasts

The data behind the story How The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Model Works

Header	Definition
state	Election
year	Year of election
candidate	Last name
forecast_prob	Probability of winning election per FiveThirtyEight Election Day forecast
result	Win or Loss

For archived results, see:

• 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20081106113055/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
• 2010 http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate
• 2012 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/