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NHL Elo
This file contains links to the data behind our NHL Predictions. More information on how our NHL Elo model works can be found in this article.
nhl_elo.csv contains game-by-game Elo ratings and forecasts since the NHL's inaugural 1917-18 season.
nhl_elo_latest.csv contains game-by-game Elo ratings and forecasts for only the latest NHL season.
| Column | Definition |
|---|---|
| season | Year of season |
| date | Date of game |
| playoff | Whether game was in playoffs |
| neutral | Whether game was on a neutral site |
| status | post if the game already happened; pre if it hasn't happened yet; live if it is being played at the time of data export |
| ot | Overtime status: OT if the game ended in overtime, SO if the game ended in a shootout, blank if the game ended in regulation or if the game hasn't happened yet (will be blank for pre and live games) |
| home_team | Home team name |
| away_team | Away team name |
| home_team_abbr | Home team abbreviation. Multiple team names can fall under the same team_abbr because of name changes or moves. Interactive is grouped by team_abbr. |
| away_team_abbr | Away team abbreviation. Multiple team names can fall under the same team_abbr because of name changes or moves. Interactive is grouped by team_abbr. |
| home_team_pregame_rating | Home team's Elo rating before the game |
| away_team_pregame_rating | Away team's Elo rating before the game |
| home_team_winprob | Home team's probability of winning according to team pregame ratings |
| away_team_winprob | Away team's probability of winning according to team pregame ratings |
| overtime_prob | Probability that the game ends in overtime according to team pregame ratings (including shootouts) |
| home_team_expected_points | Home team's expected points earned at the time the game started according to team pregame ratings (2 points for a win, 1 point for a loss in overtime) |
| away_team_expected_points | Away team's expected points earned at the time the game started according to team pregame ratings (2 points for a win, 1 point for a loss in overtime or shootout) |
| home_team_score | Home team's score (will be blank for pre and live games) |
| away_team_score | Away team's score (will be blank for pre and live games) |
| home_team_postgame_rating | Home team's rating after the game (will be blank for pre and live games) |
| away_team_postgame_rating | Away team's rating after the game (will be blank for pre and live games) |
| game_quality_rating | Rating of game's quality, based on the harmonic mean of the teams’ pregame Elo ratings, scaled from 0-100 |
| game_importance_rating | Rating of game's importance, based on how much the result would affect the model's forecasted playoff odds, scaled from 0-100. For post games, this rating is as of when the game started. (will be blank for all games played prior to 2021-22 season, the year we added a NHL forecast) |
| game_quality_rating | The average of game_quality_rating and game_importance_rating (will be blank for all games played prior to 2021-22 season, the year we added a NHL forecast) |