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Update WWC forecast

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Jay Boice
2015-06-12 23:56:52 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150612-235650.csv Normal file
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team,group,wspi,wspi_offense,wspi_defense,group_first,group_second,group_third_advance,group_third_no_advance,group_fourth,sixteen,quarter,semi,final,win
USA,D,95.27163518,3.61275027,0.41716912,0.84655,0.13310,0.02030,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.88765,0.75970,0.43940,0.30085
Germany,B,95.75920062,3.79498355,0.39653698,0.95820,0.03775,0.00400,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.80830,0.60265,0.38420,0.27455
Japan,C,92.48142588,2.82936941,0.55783513,0.99735,0.00265,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.76830,0.39375,0.24160,0.09090
Canada,A,89.71791779,2.24343349,0.66181870,0.69425,0.11875,0.18695,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.73015,0.40945,0.19860,0.07305
France,F,92.47316000,2.85284866,0.58606049,0.89920,0.08230,0.01265,0.00015,0.00570,0.99415,0.75130,0.29530,0.13345,0.06900
Brazil,E,92.31085858,2.80028511,0.57761471,0.90305,0.08740,0.00730,0.00030,0.00195,0.99775,0.55140,0.29235,0.17420,0.06735
Sweden,D,91.48454935,2.68954934,0.69351727,0.07370,0.39255,0.26780,0.20440,0.06155,0.73405,0.32390,0.18395,0.09025,0.03510
Norway,B,89.14209161,2.22913725,0.78214121,0.04085,0.95895,0.00015,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.54740,0.27440,0.10255,0.02790
England,F,89.32090127,2.21179510,0.72140675,0.05905,0.62420,0.18420,0.03010,0.10245,0.86745,0.40775,0.20510,0.07765,0.02185
Australia,D,89.24704110,2.42062719,0.96735781,0.07465,0.45825,0.38555,0.04230,0.03925,0.91845,0.31250,0.14300,0.05815,0.01805
Netherlands,A,86.04501433,1.83677977,1.01022478,0.15010,0.10580,0.58840,0.05150,0.10420,0.84430,0.29105,0.09365,0.02790,0.00585
China,A,85.32350058,1.45222435,0.72738112,0.15560,0.50330,0.13255,0.00795,0.20060,0.79145,0.39635,0.09080,0.02095,0.00440
Switzerland,C,84.21491022,1.96276862,1.49073822,0.00165,0.69470,0.30305,0.00060,0.00000,0.99940,0.40745,0.08440,0.01630,0.00395
Spain,E,84.13516439,1.56328388,1.06764240,0.06960,0.36570,0.10370,0.26455,0.19645,0.53900,0.12595,0.02860,0.00865,0.00240
South Korea,E,83.89431564,1.67859637,1.23650762,0.01790,0.42120,0.27085,0.06655,0.22350,0.70995,0.13425,0.03150,0.00575,0.00170
Cameroon,C,80.93479893,1.28458574,1.30235085,0.00100,0.30265,0.69520,0.00115,0.00000,0.99885,0.26835,0.05500,0.00910,0.00090
New Zealand,A,82.45693596,1.37133488,1.14650482,0.00000,0.27215,0.03260,0.00005,0.69520,0.30475,0.13985,0.01830,0.00265,0.00070
Nigeria,D,86.05685678,1.77922134,0.94489128,0.00505,0.01610,0.06780,0.01185,0.89920,0.08895,0.01950,0.00745,0.00260,0.00070
Mexico,F,80.99654181,1.51467333,1.54426328,0.02685,0.17040,0.09060,0.32975,0.38240,0.28785,0.06825,0.01910,0.00420,0.00060
Colombia,F,78.09324213,0.85238486,1.27576695,0.01490,0.12310,0.07390,0.27865,0.50945,0.21190,0.03925,0.00915,0.00155,0.00020
Costa Rica,E,73.72813599,0.87255166,1.94527283,0.00945,0.12570,0.09140,0.19535,0.57810,0.22655,0.01425,0.00180,0.00025,0.00000
Thailand,B,68.20634433,0.92126795,2.75636709,0.00085,0.00330,0.48010,0.51320,0.00255,0.48425,0.00680,0.00055,0.00005,0.00000
Ivory Coast,B,71.31719322,1.32783092,2.78160937,0.00000,0.00000,0.00095,0.00160,0.99745,0.00095,0.00005,0.00005,0.00000,0.00000
Ecuador,C,55.32642992,0.49307992,3.91179446,0.00000,0.00000,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.00005,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
1 team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
2 USA D 95.27163518 3.61275027 0.41716912 0.84655 0.13310 0.02030 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.88765 0.75970 0.43940 0.30085
3 Germany B 95.75920062 3.79498355 0.39653698 0.95820 0.03775 0.00400 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.80830 0.60265 0.38420 0.27455
4 Japan C 92.48142588 2.82936941 0.55783513 0.99735 0.00265 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.76830 0.39375 0.24160 0.09090
5 Canada A 89.71791779 2.24343349 0.66181870 0.69425 0.11875 0.18695 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.73015 0.40945 0.19860 0.07305
6 France F 92.47316000 2.85284866 0.58606049 0.89920 0.08230 0.01265 0.00015 0.00570 0.99415 0.75130 0.29530 0.13345 0.06900
7 Brazil E 92.31085858 2.80028511 0.57761471 0.90305 0.08740 0.00730 0.00030 0.00195 0.99775 0.55140 0.29235 0.17420 0.06735
8 Sweden D 91.48454935 2.68954934 0.69351727 0.07370 0.39255 0.26780 0.20440 0.06155 0.73405 0.32390 0.18395 0.09025 0.03510
9 Norway B 89.14209161 2.22913725 0.78214121 0.04085 0.95895 0.00015 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.54740 0.27440 0.10255 0.02790
10 England F 89.32090127 2.21179510 0.72140675 0.05905 0.62420 0.18420 0.03010 0.10245 0.86745 0.40775 0.20510 0.07765 0.02185
11 Australia D 89.24704110 2.42062719 0.96735781 0.07465 0.45825 0.38555 0.04230 0.03925 0.91845 0.31250 0.14300 0.05815 0.01805
12 Netherlands A 86.04501433 1.83677977 1.01022478 0.15010 0.10580 0.58840 0.05150 0.10420 0.84430 0.29105 0.09365 0.02790 0.00585
13 China A 85.32350058 1.45222435 0.72738112 0.15560 0.50330 0.13255 0.00795 0.20060 0.79145 0.39635 0.09080 0.02095 0.00440
14 Switzerland C 84.21491022 1.96276862 1.49073822 0.00165 0.69470 0.30305 0.00060 0.00000 0.99940 0.40745 0.08440 0.01630 0.00395
15 Spain E 84.13516439 1.56328388 1.06764240 0.06960 0.36570 0.10370 0.26455 0.19645 0.53900 0.12595 0.02860 0.00865 0.00240
16 South Korea E 83.89431564 1.67859637 1.23650762 0.01790 0.42120 0.27085 0.06655 0.22350 0.70995 0.13425 0.03150 0.00575 0.00170
17 Cameroon C 80.93479893 1.28458574 1.30235085 0.00100 0.30265 0.69520 0.00115 0.00000 0.99885 0.26835 0.05500 0.00910 0.00090
18 New Zealand A 82.45693596 1.37133488 1.14650482 0.00000 0.27215 0.03260 0.00005 0.69520 0.30475 0.13985 0.01830 0.00265 0.00070
19 Nigeria D 86.05685678 1.77922134 0.94489128 0.00505 0.01610 0.06780 0.01185 0.89920 0.08895 0.01950 0.00745 0.00260 0.00070
20 Mexico F 80.99654181 1.51467333 1.54426328 0.02685 0.17040 0.09060 0.32975 0.38240 0.28785 0.06825 0.01910 0.00420 0.00060
21 Colombia F 78.09324213 0.85238486 1.27576695 0.01490 0.12310 0.07390 0.27865 0.50945 0.21190 0.03925 0.00915 0.00155 0.00020
22 Costa Rica E 73.72813599 0.87255166 1.94527283 0.00945 0.12570 0.09140 0.19535 0.57810 0.22655 0.01425 0.00180 0.00025 0.00000
23 Thailand B 68.20634433 0.92126795 2.75636709 0.00085 0.00330 0.48010 0.51320 0.00255 0.48425 0.00680 0.00055 0.00005 0.00000
24 Ivory Coast B 71.31719322 1.32783092 2.78160937 0.00000 0.00000 0.00095 0.00160 0.99745 0.00095 0.00005 0.00005 0.00000 0.00000
25 Ecuador C 55.32642992 0.49307992 3.91179446 0.00000 0.00000 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.00005 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000

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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150612-235650.csv Normal file
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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,F,France,England,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.79976071,0.06005967,0.14017962
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,0.65928280,0.14424360,0.19647360
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,0.62087522,0.17105635,0.20806843
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.62165208,0.17049837,0.20784955
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00400504,0.95174966,0.04424530
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.05354132,0.81258317,0.13387551
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.20893417,0.57009072,0.22097512
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.45504030,0.30521235,0.23974735
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00353314,0.95722405,0.03924281
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.46218396,0.29879429,0.23902175
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.08389163,0.75592361,0.16018476
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.29684890,0.46436268,0.23878842
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.09252223,0.74100839,0.16646939
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.68805094,0.12519986,0.18674920
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.02830867,0.86718011,0.10451122
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.37191388,0.38454769,0.24353842
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
10 2015-06-09 F France England 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.79976071 0.06005967 0.14017962
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.65928280 0.14424360 0.19647360
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62087522 0.17105635 0.20806843
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.62165208 0.17049837 0.20784955
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00400504 0.95174966 0.04424530
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.05354132 0.81258317 0.13387551
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20893417 0.57009072 0.22097512
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45504030 0.30521235 0.23974735
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00353314 0.95722405 0.03924281
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.46218396 0.29879429 0.23902175
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08389163 0.75592361 0.16018476
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.29684890 0.46436268 0.23878842
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09252223 0.74100839 0.16646939
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.68805094 0.12519986 0.18674920
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02830867 0.86718011 0.10451122
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.37191388 0.38454769 0.24353842