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Update WWC forecast

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Jay Boice
2015-06-15 17:57:49 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150615-175745.csv Normal file
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team,group,wspi,wspi_offense,wspi_defense,group_first,group_second,group_third_advance,group_third_no_advance,group_fourth,sixteen,quarter,semi,final,win
Germany,B,95.70604569,3.75786164,0.38744310,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.81990,0.68440,0.43410,0.31200
USA,D,95.27805283,3.60990734,0.41740470,0.85190,0.13020,0.01785,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.84825,0.73055,0.42170,0.28915
Japan,C,92.50588778,2.83311783,0.55572662,0.99730,0.00270,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.78140,0.39825,0.23755,0.08900
Brazil,E,92.20765171,2.74815648,0.55213390,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.54835,0.29430,0.18195,0.06985
Canada,A,89.70580390,2.24199953,0.66237470,0.68935,0.12235,0.18825,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.72525,0.39540,0.18630,0.06615
France,F,91.86410328,2.76000286,0.66457899,0.27275,0.48335,0.13285,0.00035,0.11070,0.88895,0.55785,0.28705,0.13430,0.05585
Sweden,D,91.46821825,2.68688554,0.69540583,0.07375,0.39580,0.20940,0.26445,0.05660,0.67895,0.29720,0.17610,0.08670,0.03260
Norway,B,89.02880437,2.21857626,0.79569614,0.00000,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.52855,0.27240,0.10025,0.02350
England,F,89.23346354,2.20776772,0.73647349,0.50695,0.17265,0.31295,0.00520,0.00225,0.99255,0.51755,0.17965,0.06070,0.02190
Australia,D,89.23050210,2.41757980,0.96687642,0.07040,0.45895,0.40560,0.02730,0.03775,0.93495,0.28795,0.14275,0.05695,0.01825
Netherlands,A,86.02741298,1.83711664,1.01192734,0.15420,0.10545,0.60505,0.03095,0.10435,0.86470,0.29350,0.09510,0.03075,0.00755
China,A,85.29283885,1.44790154,0.72614198,0.15640,0.49990,0.13555,0.00620,0.20195,0.79185,0.40305,0.09205,0.02230,0.00495
Switzerland,C,84.18821549,1.96139031,1.49125943,0.00190,0.69650,0.30130,0.00030,0.00000,0.99970,0.40845,0.08440,0.01685,0.00355
Spain,E,83.92021382,1.48403159,1.01614249,0.00000,0.54020,0.01355,0.08115,0.36510,0.55375,0.19390,0.02630,0.00545,0.00155
Cameroon,C,80.92597624,1.28522540,1.30118231,0.00080,0.30080,0.69795,0.00045,0.00000,0.99955,0.26350,0.04950,0.00840,0.00130
South Korea,E,83.32780715,1.68204423,1.33603021,0.00000,0.35125,0.01380,0.12370,0.51125,0.36505,0.12605,0.01780,0.00330,0.00100
Nigeria,D,86.03518886,1.77523720,0.94266118,0.00390,0.01505,0.06085,0.01455,0.90565,0.07980,0.01515,0.00675,0.00270,0.00085
Colombia,F,80.02198821,1.04381691,1.18170181,0.22030,0.26175,0.51785,0.00010,0.00000,0.99990,0.19510,0.03550,0.00515,0.00055
New Zealand,A,82.41742402,1.37154141,1.15029009,0.00000,0.27230,0.03400,0.00000,0.69370,0.30630,0.13695,0.02060,0.00290,0.00035
Mexico,F,81.28958001,1.54454892,1.52594317,0.00000,0.08225,0.03070,0.00000,0.88705,0.11295,0.02830,0.01010,0.00160,0.00010
Costa Rica,E,74.47406944,0.98071415,1.95269614,0.00000,0.10855,0.07625,0.69155,0.12365,0.18480,0.02005,0.00095,0.00010,0.00000
Thailand,B,68.33002325,0.90011005,2.71244876,0.00000,0.00000,0.24625,0.75375,0.00000,0.24625,0.00375,0.00010,0.00000,0.00000
Ecuador,C,55.74511094,0.49999971,3.86419264,0.00000,0.00000,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.00005,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
Ivory Coast,B,71.84368999,1.37917421,2.76116937,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
1 team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
2 Germany B 95.70604569 3.75786164 0.38744310 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.81990 0.68440 0.43410 0.31200
3 USA D 95.27805283 3.60990734 0.41740470 0.85190 0.13020 0.01785 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.84825 0.73055 0.42170 0.28915
4 Japan C 92.50588778 2.83311783 0.55572662 0.99730 0.00270 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.78140 0.39825 0.23755 0.08900
5 Brazil E 92.20765171 2.74815648 0.55213390 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.54835 0.29430 0.18195 0.06985
6 Canada A 89.70580390 2.24199953 0.66237470 0.68935 0.12235 0.18825 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.72525 0.39540 0.18630 0.06615
7 France F 91.86410328 2.76000286 0.66457899 0.27275 0.48335 0.13285 0.00035 0.11070 0.88895 0.55785 0.28705 0.13430 0.05585
8 Sweden D 91.46821825 2.68688554 0.69540583 0.07375 0.39580 0.20940 0.26445 0.05660 0.67895 0.29720 0.17610 0.08670 0.03260
9 Norway B 89.02880437 2.21857626 0.79569614 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.52855 0.27240 0.10025 0.02350
10 England F 89.23346354 2.20776772 0.73647349 0.50695 0.17265 0.31295 0.00520 0.00225 0.99255 0.51755 0.17965 0.06070 0.02190
11 Australia D 89.23050210 2.41757980 0.96687642 0.07040 0.45895 0.40560 0.02730 0.03775 0.93495 0.28795 0.14275 0.05695 0.01825
12 Netherlands A 86.02741298 1.83711664 1.01192734 0.15420 0.10545 0.60505 0.03095 0.10435 0.86470 0.29350 0.09510 0.03075 0.00755
13 China A 85.29283885 1.44790154 0.72614198 0.15640 0.49990 0.13555 0.00620 0.20195 0.79185 0.40305 0.09205 0.02230 0.00495
14 Switzerland C 84.18821549 1.96139031 1.49125943 0.00190 0.69650 0.30130 0.00030 0.00000 0.99970 0.40845 0.08440 0.01685 0.00355
15 Spain E 83.92021382 1.48403159 1.01614249 0.00000 0.54020 0.01355 0.08115 0.36510 0.55375 0.19390 0.02630 0.00545 0.00155
16 Cameroon C 80.92597624 1.28522540 1.30118231 0.00080 0.30080 0.69795 0.00045 0.00000 0.99955 0.26350 0.04950 0.00840 0.00130
17 South Korea E 83.32780715 1.68204423 1.33603021 0.00000 0.35125 0.01380 0.12370 0.51125 0.36505 0.12605 0.01780 0.00330 0.00100
18 Nigeria D 86.03518886 1.77523720 0.94266118 0.00390 0.01505 0.06085 0.01455 0.90565 0.07980 0.01515 0.00675 0.00270 0.00085
19 Colombia F 80.02198821 1.04381691 1.18170181 0.22030 0.26175 0.51785 0.00010 0.00000 0.99990 0.19510 0.03550 0.00515 0.00055
20 New Zealand A 82.41742402 1.37154141 1.15029009 0.00000 0.27230 0.03400 0.00000 0.69370 0.30630 0.13695 0.02060 0.00290 0.00035
21 Mexico F 81.28958001 1.54454892 1.52594317 0.00000 0.08225 0.03070 0.00000 0.88705 0.11295 0.02830 0.01010 0.00160 0.00010
22 Costa Rica E 74.47406944 0.98071415 1.95269614 0.00000 0.10855 0.07625 0.69155 0.12365 0.18480 0.02005 0.00095 0.00010 0.00000
23 Thailand B 68.33002325 0.90011005 2.71244876 0.00000 0.00000 0.24625 0.75375 0.00000 0.24625 0.00375 0.00010 0.00000 0.00000
24 Ecuador C 55.74511094 0.49999971 3.86419264 0.00000 0.00000 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.00005 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
25 Ivory Coast B 71.84368999 1.37917421 2.76116937 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000

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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150615-175745.csv Normal file
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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,F,France,England,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.20902828,0.56996900,0.22100272
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.45505036,0.30520327,0.23974637
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00358686,0.95659939,0.03981375
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.46158366,0.29933128,0.23908505
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.08398309,0.75576317,0.16025374
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.29711678,0.46406230,0.23882092
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.11176373,0.70921850,0.17901777
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.64084615,0.15691723,0.20223662
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.03480868,0.85218538,0.11300595
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.36301710,0.39357571,0.24340719
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
10 2015-06-09 F France England 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20902828 0.56996900 0.22100272
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45505036 0.30520327 0.23974637
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00358686 0.95659939 0.03981375
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.46158366 0.29933128 0.23908505
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08398309 0.75576317 0.16025374
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.29711678 0.46406230 0.23882092
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.11176373 0.70921850 0.17901777
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.64084615 0.15691723 0.20223662
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.03480868 0.85218538 0.11300595
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.36301710 0.39357571 0.24340719