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Update WWC forecast

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Jay Boice
2015-06-07 18:04:22 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150607-180420.csv Normal file
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team,group,wspi,wspi_offense,wspi_defense,group_first,group_second,group_third_advance,group_third_no_advance,group_fourth,sixteen,quarter,semi,final,win
Germany,B,95.96244315,3.88582480,0.38917037,0.88795,0.11130,0.00070,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.84555,0.65845,0.44425,0.32155
USA,D,95.36187927,3.67179536,0.43360639,0.64565,0.23660,0.07930,0.01145,0.02700,0.96155,0.79955,0.64795,0.39150,0.25850
Japan,C,92.71516942,2.90422452,0.56170946,0.79460,0.16965,0.03345,0.00150,0.00080,0.99770,0.77935,0.40010,0.22215,0.08765
Canada,A,90.07159814,2.34061146,0.67849899,0.69715,0.22285,0.06420,0.00300,0.01280,0.98420,0.73565,0.38965,0.18290,0.06840
France,F,92.44115291,2.87430844,0.61315560,0.60295,0.29100,0.07500,0.01085,0.02020,0.96895,0.66470,0.29765,0.14815,0.06805
Brazil,E,92.25388021,2.81418985,0.60381919,0.69530,0.22040,0.06505,0.00750,0.01175,0.98075,0.50695,0.27310,0.15310,0.06175
Sweden,D,91.63978686,2.69767184,0.65427273,0.21760,0.38165,0.20255,0.05550,0.14270,0.80180,0.45760,0.27715,0.12880,0.05040
England,F,89.59574852,2.28511686,0.73286285,0.31790,0.43345,0.14720,0.03830,0.06315,0.89855,0.47790,0.19450,0.07435,0.02155
Norway,B,88.94452306,2.21127408,0.80374862,0.11165,0.83775,0.04610,0.00445,0.00005,0.99550,0.50485,0.23130,0.08335,0.02110
Australia,D,88.80556149,2.35813644,0.99582273,0.09470,0.23850,0.26020,0.10020,0.30640,0.59340,0.24350,0.12215,0.04795,0.01540
Netherlands,A,86.36597944,1.89759546,1.00657464,0.23895,0.41315,0.25585,0.03510,0.05695,0.90795,0.44445,0.13820,0.03675,0.00865
Spain,E,84.71973835,1.62047309,1.01574338,0.15510,0.36110,0.27210,0.08090,0.13080,0.78830,0.19345,0.05120,0.01370,0.00345
Nigeria,D,85.70672075,1.65565061,0.86991926,0.04205,0.14325,0.19875,0.09205,0.52390,0.38405,0.11660,0.04710,0.01385,0.00290
China,A,85.09301478,1.44478943,0.75442295,0.04065,0.27785,0.26580,0.10005,0.31565,0.58430,0.23270,0.05895,0.01335,0.00285
Switzerland,C,83.71138727,1.88511389,1.48638627,0.14535,0.49270,0.24825,0.06435,0.04935,0.88630,0.33405,0.07445,0.01695,0.00275
South Korea,E,84.24516078,1.75169575,1.24582607,0.13850,0.34610,0.27755,0.08985,0.14800,0.76215,0.17840,0.04740,0.01225,0.00265
Mexico,F,81.11906488,1.52751824,1.52976527,0.05350,0.16915,0.28275,0.12760,0.36700,0.50540,0.11305,0.02795,0.00590,0.00100
New Zealand,A,82.20322954,1.40702925,1.21948134,0.02325,0.08615,0.20300,0.07300,0.61460,0.31240,0.08595,0.01745,0.00345,0.00060
Cameroon,C,79.22485170,1.11216401,1.37645252,0.05840,0.30740,0.37385,0.13200,0.12835,0.73965,0.17730,0.02825,0.00455,0.00045
Colombia,F,78.06807848,0.87093206,1.29111548,0.02565,0.10640,0.20265,0.11565,0.54965,0.33470,0.06005,0.01220,0.00230,0.00030
Costa Rica,E,72.83054607,0.82479051,2.01103831,0.01110,0.07240,0.12425,0.08280,0.70945,0.20775,0.01435,0.00190,0.00015,0.00005
Ivory Coast,B,72.83575461,1.35032858,2.58569462,0.00030,0.04965,0.15690,0.33625,0.45690,0.20685,0.02410,0.00260,0.00030,0.00000
Ecuador,C,63.37774164,0.48714627,2.89253619,0.00165,0.03025,0.07420,0.07240,0.82150,0.10610,0.00570,0.00025,0.00000,0.00000
Thailand,B,67.46867771,0.87308845,2.79142932,0.00005,0.00130,0.09035,0.36525,0.54305,0.09170,0.00425,0.00010,0.00000,0.00000
1 team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
2 Germany B 95.96244315 3.88582480 0.38917037 0.88795 0.11130 0.00070 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.84555 0.65845 0.44425 0.32155
3 USA D 95.36187927 3.67179536 0.43360639 0.64565 0.23660 0.07930 0.01145 0.02700 0.96155 0.79955 0.64795 0.39150 0.25850
4 Japan C 92.71516942 2.90422452 0.56170946 0.79460 0.16965 0.03345 0.00150 0.00080 0.99770 0.77935 0.40010 0.22215 0.08765
5 Canada A 90.07159814 2.34061146 0.67849899 0.69715 0.22285 0.06420 0.00300 0.01280 0.98420 0.73565 0.38965 0.18290 0.06840
6 France F 92.44115291 2.87430844 0.61315560 0.60295 0.29100 0.07500 0.01085 0.02020 0.96895 0.66470 0.29765 0.14815 0.06805
7 Brazil E 92.25388021 2.81418985 0.60381919 0.69530 0.22040 0.06505 0.00750 0.01175 0.98075 0.50695 0.27310 0.15310 0.06175
8 Sweden D 91.63978686 2.69767184 0.65427273 0.21760 0.38165 0.20255 0.05550 0.14270 0.80180 0.45760 0.27715 0.12880 0.05040
9 England F 89.59574852 2.28511686 0.73286285 0.31790 0.43345 0.14720 0.03830 0.06315 0.89855 0.47790 0.19450 0.07435 0.02155
10 Norway B 88.94452306 2.21127408 0.80374862 0.11165 0.83775 0.04610 0.00445 0.00005 0.99550 0.50485 0.23130 0.08335 0.02110
11 Australia D 88.80556149 2.35813644 0.99582273 0.09470 0.23850 0.26020 0.10020 0.30640 0.59340 0.24350 0.12215 0.04795 0.01540
12 Netherlands A 86.36597944 1.89759546 1.00657464 0.23895 0.41315 0.25585 0.03510 0.05695 0.90795 0.44445 0.13820 0.03675 0.00865
13 Spain E 84.71973835 1.62047309 1.01574338 0.15510 0.36110 0.27210 0.08090 0.13080 0.78830 0.19345 0.05120 0.01370 0.00345
14 Nigeria D 85.70672075 1.65565061 0.86991926 0.04205 0.14325 0.19875 0.09205 0.52390 0.38405 0.11660 0.04710 0.01385 0.00290
15 China A 85.09301478 1.44478943 0.75442295 0.04065 0.27785 0.26580 0.10005 0.31565 0.58430 0.23270 0.05895 0.01335 0.00285
16 Switzerland C 83.71138727 1.88511389 1.48638627 0.14535 0.49270 0.24825 0.06435 0.04935 0.88630 0.33405 0.07445 0.01695 0.00275
17 South Korea E 84.24516078 1.75169575 1.24582607 0.13850 0.34610 0.27755 0.08985 0.14800 0.76215 0.17840 0.04740 0.01225 0.00265
18 Mexico F 81.11906488 1.52751824 1.52976527 0.05350 0.16915 0.28275 0.12760 0.36700 0.50540 0.11305 0.02795 0.00590 0.00100
19 New Zealand A 82.20322954 1.40702925 1.21948134 0.02325 0.08615 0.20300 0.07300 0.61460 0.31240 0.08595 0.01745 0.00345 0.00060
20 Cameroon C 79.22485170 1.11216401 1.37645252 0.05840 0.30740 0.37385 0.13200 0.12835 0.73965 0.17730 0.02825 0.00455 0.00045
21 Colombia F 78.06807848 0.87093206 1.29111548 0.02565 0.10640 0.20265 0.11565 0.54965 0.33470 0.06005 0.01220 0.00230 0.00030
22 Costa Rica E 72.83054607 0.82479051 2.01103831 0.01110 0.07240 0.12425 0.08280 0.70945 0.20775 0.01435 0.00190 0.00015 0.00005
23 Ivory Coast B 72.83575461 1.35032858 2.58569462 0.00030 0.04965 0.15690 0.33625 0.45690 0.20685 0.02410 0.00260 0.00030 0.00000
24 Ecuador C 63.37774164 0.48714627 2.89253619 0.00165 0.03025 0.07420 0.07240 0.82150 0.10610 0.00570 0.00025 0.00000 0.00000
25 Thailand B 67.46867771 0.87308845 2.79142932 0.00005 0.00130 0.09035 0.36525 0.54305 0.09170 0.00425 0.00010 0.00000 0.00000

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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150607-180420.csv Normal file
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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.58603529,0.19674381,0.21722091
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,0.71037766,0.11104222,0.17858012
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,0.68198565,0.12914026,0.18887409
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,0.68772696,0.12540932,0.18686372
2015-06-09,F,France,England,0.49471733,0.27032069,0.23496198
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.66252050,0.14205565,0.19542385
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.30903152,0.45082113,0.24014735
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,0.65353454,0.14815589,0.19830957
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.71701152,0.10694180,0.17604668
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,0.34258537,0.41473201,0.24268262
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.48906299,0.27518168,0.23575534
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.68507450,0.12712854,0.18779696
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,0.47592165,0.28662106,0.23745729
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,0.80665208,0.05653000,0.13681792
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.57542022,0.20482904,0.21975074
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,0.78700092,0.06675389,0.14624519
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.79871394,0.06060112,0.14068494
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,0.64073986,0.15699135,0.20226878
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,0.62692345,0.16672927,0.20634728
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.64980846,0.15071084,0.19948070
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00377093,0.95446203,0.04176704
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.07028529,0.78042051,0.14929420
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.20662596,0.57308246,0.22029158
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.45484272,0.30539072,0.23976656
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00472105,0.94349243,0.05178653
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.49031461,0.27410252,0.23558287
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.07594022,0.77008172,0.15397806
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.27718024,0.48675050,0.23606926
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.09508556,0.73666188,0.16825255
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.69715576,0.11936020,0.18348404
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.02384726,0.87797762,0.09817513
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.36546493,0.39108081,0.24345426
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.58603529 0.19674381 0.21722091
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 0.71037766 0.11104222 0.17858012
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 0.68198565 0.12914026 0.18887409
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 0.68772696 0.12540932 0.18686372
10 2015-06-09 F France England 0.49471733 0.27032069 0.23496198
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.66252050 0.14205565 0.19542385
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.30903152 0.45082113 0.24014735
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 0.65353454 0.14815589 0.19830957
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.71701152 0.10694180 0.17604668
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 0.34258537 0.41473201 0.24268262
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.48906299 0.27518168 0.23575534
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.68507450 0.12712854 0.18779696
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 0.47592165 0.28662106 0.23745729
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.80665208 0.05653000 0.13681792
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.57542022 0.20482904 0.21975074
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.78700092 0.06675389 0.14624519
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.79871394 0.06060112 0.14068494
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.64073986 0.15699135 0.20226878
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62692345 0.16672927 0.20634728
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.64980846 0.15071084 0.19948070
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00377093 0.95446203 0.04176704
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.07028529 0.78042051 0.14929420
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20662596 0.57308246 0.22029158
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45484272 0.30539072 0.23976656
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00472105 0.94349243 0.05178653
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.49031461 0.27410252 0.23558287
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.07594022 0.77008172 0.15397806
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.27718024 0.48675050 0.23606926
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09508556 0.73666188 0.16825255
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.69715576 0.11936020 0.18348404
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02384726 0.87797762 0.09817513
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.36546493 0.39108081 0.24345426