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Update WWC forecast

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Jay Boice
2015-06-11 18:22:25 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150611-182114.csv Normal file
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team,group,wspi,wspi_offense,wspi_defense,group_first,group_second,group_third_advance,group_third_no_advance,group_fourth,sixteen,quarter,semi,final,win
USA,D,95.42806577,3.70047116,0.43741419,0.81505,0.14490,0.03285,0.00065,0.00655,0.99280,0.87045,0.72790,0.43215,0.30360
Germany,B,95.78021737,3.81206702,0.39797638,0.95930,0.03955,0.00110,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.83150,0.62510,0.39010,0.28105
Japan,C,92.54926680,2.83636874,0.53786046,0.86025,0.12085,0.01885,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.79075,0.40625,0.24255,0.09065
Canada,A,90.05465203,2.33945124,0.68005770,0.69385,0.22575,0.06595,0.00200,0.01245,0.98555,0.75630,0.41370,0.19380,0.07195
Brazil,E,92.29068457,2.80078657,0.57738888,0.89885,0.08930,0.00940,0.00015,0.00230,0.99755,0.55105,0.30920,0.18240,0.07165
France,F,92.44230774,2.84962269,0.58502645,0.89330,0.08635,0.01525,0.00015,0.00495,0.99490,0.75650,0.28840,0.12755,0.06380
Sweden,D,91.65912411,2.76679528,0.72349623,0.12315,0.38700,0.19330,0.11630,0.18025,0.70345,0.35400,0.21000,0.10195,0.03775
Norway,B,89.11478895,2.22789229,0.78212022,0.03890,0.92280,0.03825,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.54525,0.26960,0.10160,0.02485
England,F,89.29381923,2.21047358,0.72126998,0.05890,0.61895,0.19070,0.02770,0.10375,0.86855,0.40860,0.19260,0.07505,0.01950
Australia,D,88.82446837,2.37871831,1.01372486,0.01945,0.25315,0.27290,0.04595,0.40855,0.54550,0.17280,0.08015,0.03390,0.01040
Netherlands,A,86.38808940,1.89982630,1.00639471,0.24330,0.42055,0.26665,0.01815,0.05135,0.93050,0.46560,0.13695,0.03830,0.00790
Nigeria,D,86.61434156,1.86250157,0.92044203,0.04235,0.21495,0.21120,0.12685,0.40465,0.46850,0.13320,0.05740,0.01995,0.00520
China,A,85.09644435,1.44572676,0.75672228,0.03975,0.27105,0.29305,0.07660,0.31955,0.60385,0.23825,0.05475,0.01275,0.00280
Switzerland,C,83.53738389,1.80772992,1.43403059,0.00765,0.42800,0.49125,0.05320,0.01990,0.92690,0.29725,0.06635,0.01440,0.00240
Spain,E,84.09925220,1.56327333,1.06774690,0.07070,0.36730,0.14595,0.22155,0.19450,0.58395,0.13595,0.03145,0.00865,0.00195
South Korea,E,83.83366214,1.67671527,1.23885692,0.01975,0.41740,0.27360,0.06050,0.22875,0.71075,0.13980,0.02960,0.00585,0.00165
New Zealand,A,82.21878752,1.40819038,1.22038868,0.02310,0.08265,0.22630,0.05130,0.61665,0.33205,0.09440,0.01810,0.00465,0.00115
Cameroon,C,80.57597276,1.24706731,1.31292113,0.13200,0.45065,0.41330,0.00380,0.00025,0.99595,0.28550,0.04600,0.00785,0.00100
Mexico,F,80.97936649,1.51418181,1.54026572,0.02875,0.17460,0.12335,0.29700,0.37630,0.32670,0.07795,0.02060,0.00410,0.00060
Ivory Coast,B,72.98859289,1.34597674,2.56252030,0.00160,0.03660,0.31000,0.19265,0.45915,0.34820,0.02790,0.00385,0.00055,0.00010
Colombia,F,78.09223453,0.86604793,1.28458920,0.01905,0.12010,0.10135,0.24450,0.51500,0.24050,0.04580,0.01030,0.00165,0.00005
Costa Rica,E,73.69808949,0.87078190,1.94154129,0.01070,0.12600,0.11905,0.16980,0.57445,0.25575,0.01500,0.00145,0.00020,0.00000
Thailand,B,67.55780405,0.87197800,2.78188416,0.00010,0.00105,0.17230,0.28570,0.54085,0.17345,0.00585,0.00030,0.00005,0.00000
Ecuador,C,59.00720306,0.43527700,3.38742496,0.00005,0.00050,0.01410,0.00550,0.97985,0.01465,0.00035,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
1 team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
2 USA D 95.42806577 3.70047116 0.43741419 0.81505 0.14490 0.03285 0.00065 0.00655 0.99280 0.87045 0.72790 0.43215 0.30360
3 Germany B 95.78021737 3.81206702 0.39797638 0.95930 0.03955 0.00110 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.83150 0.62510 0.39010 0.28105
4 Japan C 92.54926680 2.83636874 0.53786046 0.86025 0.12085 0.01885 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.79075 0.40625 0.24255 0.09065
5 Canada A 90.05465203 2.33945124 0.68005770 0.69385 0.22575 0.06595 0.00200 0.01245 0.98555 0.75630 0.41370 0.19380 0.07195
6 Brazil E 92.29068457 2.80078657 0.57738888 0.89885 0.08930 0.00940 0.00015 0.00230 0.99755 0.55105 0.30920 0.18240 0.07165
7 France F 92.44230774 2.84962269 0.58502645 0.89330 0.08635 0.01525 0.00015 0.00495 0.99490 0.75650 0.28840 0.12755 0.06380
8 Sweden D 91.65912411 2.76679528 0.72349623 0.12315 0.38700 0.19330 0.11630 0.18025 0.70345 0.35400 0.21000 0.10195 0.03775
9 Norway B 89.11478895 2.22789229 0.78212022 0.03890 0.92280 0.03825 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.54525 0.26960 0.10160 0.02485
10 England F 89.29381923 2.21047358 0.72126998 0.05890 0.61895 0.19070 0.02770 0.10375 0.86855 0.40860 0.19260 0.07505 0.01950
11 Australia D 88.82446837 2.37871831 1.01372486 0.01945 0.25315 0.27290 0.04595 0.40855 0.54550 0.17280 0.08015 0.03390 0.01040
12 Netherlands A 86.38808940 1.89982630 1.00639471 0.24330 0.42055 0.26665 0.01815 0.05135 0.93050 0.46560 0.13695 0.03830 0.00790
13 Nigeria D 86.61434156 1.86250157 0.92044203 0.04235 0.21495 0.21120 0.12685 0.40465 0.46850 0.13320 0.05740 0.01995 0.00520
14 China A 85.09644435 1.44572676 0.75672228 0.03975 0.27105 0.29305 0.07660 0.31955 0.60385 0.23825 0.05475 0.01275 0.00280
15 Switzerland C 83.53738389 1.80772992 1.43403059 0.00765 0.42800 0.49125 0.05320 0.01990 0.92690 0.29725 0.06635 0.01440 0.00240
16 Spain E 84.09925220 1.56327333 1.06774690 0.07070 0.36730 0.14595 0.22155 0.19450 0.58395 0.13595 0.03145 0.00865 0.00195
17 South Korea E 83.83366214 1.67671527 1.23885692 0.01975 0.41740 0.27360 0.06050 0.22875 0.71075 0.13980 0.02960 0.00585 0.00165
18 New Zealand A 82.21878752 1.40819038 1.22038868 0.02310 0.08265 0.22630 0.05130 0.61665 0.33205 0.09440 0.01810 0.00465 0.00115
19 Cameroon C 80.57597276 1.24706731 1.31292113 0.13200 0.45065 0.41330 0.00380 0.00025 0.99595 0.28550 0.04600 0.00785 0.00100
20 Mexico F 80.97936649 1.51418181 1.54026572 0.02875 0.17460 0.12335 0.29700 0.37630 0.32670 0.07795 0.02060 0.00410 0.00060
21 Ivory Coast B 72.98859289 1.34597674 2.56252030 0.00160 0.03660 0.31000 0.19265 0.45915 0.34820 0.02790 0.00385 0.00055 0.00010
22 Colombia F 78.09223453 0.86604793 1.28458920 0.01905 0.12010 0.10135 0.24450 0.51500 0.24050 0.04580 0.01030 0.00165 0.00005
23 Costa Rica E 73.69808949 0.87078190 1.94154129 0.01070 0.12600 0.11905 0.16980 0.57445 0.25575 0.01500 0.00145 0.00020 0.00000
24 Thailand B 67.55780405 0.87197800 2.78188416 0.00010 0.00105 0.17230 0.28570 0.54085 0.17345 0.00585 0.00030 0.00005 0.00000
25 Ecuador C 59.00720306 0.43527700 3.38742496 0.00005 0.00050 0.01410 0.00550 0.97985 0.01465 0.00035 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000

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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150611-182114.csv Normal file
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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,F,France,England,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,0.34202399,0.41532182,0.24265419
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.49062241,0.27383741,0.23554018
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.68461589,0.12742657,0.18795754
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,0.44954466,0.31019118,0.24026416
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,0.86488991,0.02927898,0.10583112
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.57866011,0.20234844,0.21899146
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,0.75327309,0.08540645,0.16132046
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.79870451,0.06060601,0.14068949
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,0.65941355,0.14415502,0.19643143
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,0.62015735,0.17157253,0.20827012
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.62071882,0.17116876,0.20811242
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00388683,0.95311840,0.04299478
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.06882605,0.78312766,0.14804630
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.20727069,0.57224554,0.22048377
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.45459115,0.30561790,0.23979095
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00403959,0.95134984,0.04461057
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.45274322,0.30728901,0.23996777
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.08691421,0.75064907,0.16243672
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.27693605,0.48703267,0.23603128
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.09299428,0.74020518,0.16680053
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.68698399,0.12589011,0.18712590
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.02835284,0.86707542,0.10457174
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.37128046,0.38518684,0.24353270
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
10 2015-06-09 F France England 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 0.34202399 0.41532182 0.24265419
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.49062241 0.27383741 0.23554018
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.68461589 0.12742657 0.18795754
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 0.44954466 0.31019118 0.24026416
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.86488991 0.02927898 0.10583112
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.57866011 0.20234844 0.21899146
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.75327309 0.08540645 0.16132046
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.79870451 0.06060601 0.14068949
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.65941355 0.14415502 0.19643143
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62015735 0.17157253 0.20827012
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.62071882 0.17116876 0.20811242
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00388683 0.95311840 0.04299478
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.06882605 0.78312766 0.14804630
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20727069 0.57224554 0.22048377
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45459115 0.30561790 0.23979095
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00403959 0.95134984 0.04461057
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.45274322 0.30728901 0.23996777
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08691421 0.75064907 0.16243672
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.27693605 0.48703267 0.23603128
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09299428 0.74020518 0.16680053
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.68698399 0.12589011 0.18712590
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02835284 0.86707542 0.10457174
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.37128046 0.38518684 0.24353270