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Update WWC forecast

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Jay Boice
2015-06-08 21:01:40 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150608-210138.csv Normal file
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team,group,wspi,wspi_offense,wspi_defense,group_first,group_second,group_third_advance,group_third_no_advance,group_fourth,sixteen,quarter,semi,final,win
Germany,B,95.93792723,3.88094256,0.38856526,0.89080,0.10830,0.00085,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.84150,0.65245,0.43645,0.31135
USA,D,95.34577735,3.67160326,0.43359268,0.69355,0.18915,0.07135,0.01105,0.03490,0.95405,0.80695,0.66245,0.39740,0.26625
Japan,C,92.69064994,2.90306817,0.56145387,0.72875,0.20790,0.06035,0.00270,0.00030,0.99700,0.76920,0.39775,0.22135,0.08750
Canada,A,90.03790570,2.33863332,0.67879252,0.69855,0.22535,0.06070,0.00370,0.01170,0.98460,0.73485,0.39215,0.19165,0.07560
France,F,92.41683073,2.87356435,0.61316300,0.60155,0.29255,0.07500,0.01235,0.01855,0.96910,0.66375,0.29670,0.14330,0.06355
Brazil,E,92.19859860,2.80584988,0.60458384,0.69655,0.21710,0.06580,0.00925,0.01130,0.97945,0.51905,0.28235,0.15700,0.06290
Sweden,D,91.64510749,2.76691150,0.72224550,0.14565,0.35230,0.16055,0.15085,0.19065,0.65850,0.36800,0.22180,0.10595,0.04190
England,F,89.57239005,2.28535534,0.73303018,0.31760,0.43380,0.14740,0.03980,0.06140,0.89880,0.47770,0.19685,0.07645,0.02480
Norway,B,88.92240139,2.21081693,0.80372180,0.10865,0.84220,0.04240,0.00675,0.00000,0.99325,0.50025,0.23555,0.08960,0.02120
Australia,D,88.78652903,2.35818682,0.99583049,0.11005,0.26195,0.20310,0.07905,0.34585,0.57510,0.23655,0.12230,0.04525,0.01390
Netherlands,A,86.35867330,1.89758303,1.00659781,0.24090,0.41880,0.24525,0.04000,0.05505,0.90495,0.44705,0.13430,0.03865,0.01010
Nigeria,D,86.60256362,1.86296534,0.92006627,0.05075,0.19660,0.17580,0.14825,0.42860,0.42315,0.13960,0.05900,0.02020,0.00595
Spain,E,84.71566263,1.62047535,1.01572394,0.15105,0.36220,0.25920,0.08920,0.13835,0.77245,0.19350,0.05290,0.01365,0.00350
South Korea,E,84.26802320,1.75462579,1.24428067,0.14085,0.34815,0.27090,0.09565,0.14445,0.75990,0.17815,0.04835,0.01325,0.00315
Switzerland,C,83.68968372,1.88192381,1.48627652,0.13340,0.38585,0.39505,0.06985,0.01585,0.91430,0.32480,0.07740,0.01795,0.00295
China,A,85.08745418,1.44440534,0.75413195,0.03975,0.27215,0.25825,0.11210,0.31775,0.57015,0.22360,0.05565,0.01300,0.00255
Cameroon,C,80.56539514,1.24722882,1.31289404,0.13780,0.40555,0.44510,0.01100,0.00055,0.98845,0.27055,0.04990,0.00850,0.00110
Mexico,F,81.11271552,1.52648170,1.53003372,0.05560,0.16735,0.27625,0.13320,0.36760,0.49920,0.11795,0.02755,0.00510,0.00085
New Zealand,A,82.20347034,1.40702569,1.21948930,0.02080,0.08370,0.20050,0.07950,0.61550,0.30500,0.08325,0.01800,0.00295,0.00065
Colombia,F,77.89752486,0.85403823,1.29999870,0.02525,0.10630,0.19700,0.11900,0.55245,0.32855,0.05895,0.01200,0.00200,0.00020
Costa Rica,E,72.84661950,0.82478500,2.01103605,0.01155,0.07255,0.12520,0.08480,0.70590,0.20930,0.01450,0.00160,0.00020,0.00005
Ivory Coast,B,73.05618543,1.34705583,2.55334636,0.00040,0.04820,0.16865,0.32070,0.46205,0.21725,0.02570,0.00290,0.00015,0.00000
Thailand,B,67.47738090,0.87245726,2.79261745,0.00010,0.00130,0.08830,0.37235,0.53795,0.08970,0.00430,0.00010,0.00000,0.00000
Ecuador,C,58.96720721,0.43366262,3.39071868,0.00005,0.00070,0.00705,0.00890,0.98330,0.00780,0.00030,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
1 team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
2 Germany B 95.93792723 3.88094256 0.38856526 0.89080 0.10830 0.00085 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.84150 0.65245 0.43645 0.31135
3 USA D 95.34577735 3.67160326 0.43359268 0.69355 0.18915 0.07135 0.01105 0.03490 0.95405 0.80695 0.66245 0.39740 0.26625
4 Japan C 92.69064994 2.90306817 0.56145387 0.72875 0.20790 0.06035 0.00270 0.00030 0.99700 0.76920 0.39775 0.22135 0.08750
5 Canada A 90.03790570 2.33863332 0.67879252 0.69855 0.22535 0.06070 0.00370 0.01170 0.98460 0.73485 0.39215 0.19165 0.07560
6 France F 92.41683073 2.87356435 0.61316300 0.60155 0.29255 0.07500 0.01235 0.01855 0.96910 0.66375 0.29670 0.14330 0.06355
7 Brazil E 92.19859860 2.80584988 0.60458384 0.69655 0.21710 0.06580 0.00925 0.01130 0.97945 0.51905 0.28235 0.15700 0.06290
8 Sweden D 91.64510749 2.76691150 0.72224550 0.14565 0.35230 0.16055 0.15085 0.19065 0.65850 0.36800 0.22180 0.10595 0.04190
9 England F 89.57239005 2.28535534 0.73303018 0.31760 0.43380 0.14740 0.03980 0.06140 0.89880 0.47770 0.19685 0.07645 0.02480
10 Norway B 88.92240139 2.21081693 0.80372180 0.10865 0.84220 0.04240 0.00675 0.00000 0.99325 0.50025 0.23555 0.08960 0.02120
11 Australia D 88.78652903 2.35818682 0.99583049 0.11005 0.26195 0.20310 0.07905 0.34585 0.57510 0.23655 0.12230 0.04525 0.01390
12 Netherlands A 86.35867330 1.89758303 1.00659781 0.24090 0.41880 0.24525 0.04000 0.05505 0.90495 0.44705 0.13430 0.03865 0.01010
13 Nigeria D 86.60256362 1.86296534 0.92006627 0.05075 0.19660 0.17580 0.14825 0.42860 0.42315 0.13960 0.05900 0.02020 0.00595
14 Spain E 84.71566263 1.62047535 1.01572394 0.15105 0.36220 0.25920 0.08920 0.13835 0.77245 0.19350 0.05290 0.01365 0.00350
15 South Korea E 84.26802320 1.75462579 1.24428067 0.14085 0.34815 0.27090 0.09565 0.14445 0.75990 0.17815 0.04835 0.01325 0.00315
16 Switzerland C 83.68968372 1.88192381 1.48627652 0.13340 0.38585 0.39505 0.06985 0.01585 0.91430 0.32480 0.07740 0.01795 0.00295
17 China A 85.08745418 1.44440534 0.75413195 0.03975 0.27215 0.25825 0.11210 0.31775 0.57015 0.22360 0.05565 0.01300 0.00255
18 Cameroon C 80.56539514 1.24722882 1.31289404 0.13780 0.40555 0.44510 0.01100 0.00055 0.98845 0.27055 0.04990 0.00850 0.00110
19 Mexico F 81.11271552 1.52648170 1.53003372 0.05560 0.16735 0.27625 0.13320 0.36760 0.49920 0.11795 0.02755 0.00510 0.00085
20 New Zealand A 82.20347034 1.40702569 1.21948930 0.02080 0.08370 0.20050 0.07950 0.61550 0.30500 0.08325 0.01800 0.00295 0.00065
21 Colombia F 77.89752486 0.85403823 1.29999870 0.02525 0.10630 0.19700 0.11900 0.55245 0.32855 0.05895 0.01200 0.00200 0.00020
22 Costa Rica E 72.84661950 0.82478500 2.01103605 0.01155 0.07255 0.12520 0.08480 0.70590 0.20930 0.01450 0.00160 0.00020 0.00005
23 Ivory Coast B 73.05618543 1.34705583 2.55334636 0.00040 0.04820 0.16865 0.32070 0.46205 0.21725 0.02570 0.00290 0.00015 0.00000
24 Thailand B 67.47738090 0.87245726 2.79261745 0.00010 0.00130 0.08830 0.37235 0.53795 0.08970 0.00430 0.00010 0.00000 0.00000
25 Ecuador C 58.96720721 0.43366262 3.39071868 0.00005 0.00070 0.00705 0.00890 0.98330 0.00780 0.00030 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000

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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,0.68195050,0.12916321,0.18888628
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,0.68806675,0.12518964,0.18674361
2015-06-09,F,France,England,0.49457559,0.27044210,0.23498231
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.66252426,0.14205312,0.19542262
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.30541949,0.45481086,0.23976965
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,0.65137358,0.14963584,0.19899059
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.71641872,0.10730621,0.17627506
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,0.34257201,0.41474605,0.24268194
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.49380440,0.27110306,0.23509254
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.68472298,0.12735695,0.18792006
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,0.44870570,0.31095443,0.24033987
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,0.86839285,0.02779821,0.10380894
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.57418801,0.20577544,0.22003655
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,0.75976043,0.08171340,0.15852617
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.80195522,0.05892907,0.13911571
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,0.63926432,0.15802159,0.20271409
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,0.62714796,0.16656940,0.20628264
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.65051137,0.15022772,0.19926091
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00377426,0.95442334,0.04180240
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.07230370,0.77670304,0.15099326
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.20691236,0.57271057,0.22037708
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.45482464,0.30540705,0.23976832
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00397195,0.95213257,0.04389547
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.45716647,0.30329580,0.23953773
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.08912432,0.74682761,0.16404807
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.27613862,0.48795485,0.23590653
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.09503891,0.73674066,0.16822043
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.70104718,0.11689206,0.18206076
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.02424459,0.87699696,0.09875845
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.36616013,0.39037377,0.24346610
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 0.68195050 0.12916321 0.18888628
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 0.68806675 0.12518964 0.18674361
10 2015-06-09 F France England 0.49457559 0.27044210 0.23498231
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.66252426 0.14205312 0.19542262
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.30541949 0.45481086 0.23976965
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 0.65137358 0.14963584 0.19899059
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.71641872 0.10730621 0.17627506
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 0.34257201 0.41474605 0.24268194
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.49380440 0.27110306 0.23509254
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.68472298 0.12735695 0.18792006
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 0.44870570 0.31095443 0.24033987
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.86839285 0.02779821 0.10380894
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.57418801 0.20577544 0.22003655
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.75976043 0.08171340 0.15852617
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.80195522 0.05892907 0.13911571
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.63926432 0.15802159 0.20271409
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62714796 0.16656940 0.20628264
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.65051137 0.15022772 0.19926091
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00377426 0.95442334 0.04180240
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.07230370 0.77670304 0.15099326
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20691236 0.57271057 0.22037708
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45482464 0.30540705 0.23976832
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00397195 0.95213257 0.04389547
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.45716647 0.30329580 0.23953773
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08912432 0.74682761 0.16404807
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.27613862 0.48795485 0.23590653
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09503891 0.73674066 0.16822043
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.70104718 0.11689206 0.18206076
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02424459 0.87699696 0.09875845
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.36616013 0.39037377 0.24346610