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Update WWC forecast

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Jay Boice
2015-06-09 14:56:07 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150609-145605.csv Normal file
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team,group,wspi,wspi_offense,wspi_defense,group_first,group_second,group_third_advance,group_third_no_advance,group_fourth,sixteen,quarter,semi,final,win
Germany,B,95.94240515,3.88020014,0.38930763,0.89220,0.10730,0.00045,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.85420,0.65495,0.42150,0.30545
USA,D,95.41134423,3.69872773,0.43769705,0.81650,0.14605,0.03005,0.00130,0.00610,0.99260,0.86215,0.71625,0.42115,0.28805
Japan,C,92.55419836,2.83961915,0.53694739,0.85900,0.12045,0.02050,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.79320,0.41400,0.24040,0.09075
Canada,A,90.04710025,2.33920354,0.67958126,0.69435,0.22465,0.06525,0.00345,0.01230,0.98425,0.75280,0.40690,0.19545,0.07120
France,F,92.42914308,2.84828867,0.58464365,0.87405,0.09690,0.02485,0.00055,0.00365,0.99580,0.71145,0.27540,0.13060,0.06565
Brazil,E,92.21039127,2.80664717,0.60480284,0.69155,0.22040,0.06920,0.00730,0.01155,0.98115,0.51800,0.27710,0.15665,0.06075
Sweden,D,91.65275728,2.76727126,0.72321512,0.12315,0.39240,0.15015,0.15565,0.17865,0.66570,0.35985,0.21245,0.10180,0.03945
Norway,B,88.90930206,2.20525116,0.80284453,0.10750,0.84225,0.04550,0.00475,0.00000,0.99525,0.53365,0.25330,0.09790,0.02395
England,F,89.28841889,2.21074029,0.72094636,0.05155,0.59385,0.21015,0.05695,0.08750,0.85555,0.39875,0.18745,0.07220,0.01825
Australia,D,88.81760353,2.37825670,1.01301213,0.02025,0.25165,0.23360,0.08735,0.40715,0.50550,0.18450,0.08735,0.03775,0.01140
Netherlands,A,86.36880928,1.89806890,1.00702784,0.24590,0.41225,0.24630,0.04095,0.05460,0.90445,0.45610,0.13640,0.03755,0.00800
Nigeria,D,86.61056740,1.86284038,0.92026141,0.04010,0.20990,0.18025,0.16165,0.40810,0.43025,0.13675,0.05800,0.01890,0.00415
Spain,E,84.72551619,1.62091341,1.01611169,0.15545,0.36295,0.26160,0.08475,0.13525,0.78000,0.17785,0.04860,0.01415,0.00345
China,A,85.09506547,1.44500408,0.75512409,0.03980,0.27450,0.26035,0.10745,0.31790,0.57465,0.22485,0.05245,0.01190,0.00270
South Korea,E,84.27678298,1.75443658,1.24416555,0.14045,0.34630,0.27490,0.09325,0.14510,0.76165,0.17325,0.04685,0.01155,0.00240
Switzerland,C,83.52637196,1.80663399,1.43389098,0.00970,0.42300,0.47595,0.07140,0.01995,0.90865,0.28945,0.06220,0.01130,0.00240
Cameroon,C,80.57377141,1.24722206,1.31289424,0.13130,0.45580,0.40370,0.00900,0.00020,0.99080,0.27780,0.04920,0.00830,0.00095
New Zealand,A,82.21449094,1.40767371,1.21983316,0.01995,0.08860,0.19640,0.07985,0.61520,0.30495,0.08310,0.01650,0.00345,0.00060
Mexico,F,81.12292611,1.52626714,1.52952990,0.05010,0.19230,0.26890,0.13380,0.35490,0.51130,0.11500,0.02735,0.00510,0.00030
Colombia,F,77.90512281,0.85405310,1.30002664,0.02430,0.11695,0.18690,0.11790,0.55395,0.32815,0.05845,0.01280,0.00185,0.00010
Ivory Coast,B,73.06091869,1.34694783,2.55348262,0.00020,0.04955,0.17465,0.32105,0.45455,0.22440,0.02495,0.00320,0.00055,0.00005
Costa Rica,E,72.85634040,0.82461438,2.01039193,0.01255,0.07035,0.12260,0.08640,0.70810,0.20550,0.01060,0.00110,0.00000,0.00000
Thailand,B,67.47659992,0.87225619,2.79303283,0.00005,0.00090,0.08880,0.36480,0.54545,0.08975,0.00315,0.00015,0.00000,0.00000
Ecuador,C,58.96893620,0.43368042,3.39070014,0.00000,0.00075,0.00900,0.01040,0.97985,0.00975,0.00015,0.00005,0.00000,0.00000
1 team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
2 Germany B 95.94240515 3.88020014 0.38930763 0.89220 0.10730 0.00045 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.85420 0.65495 0.42150 0.30545
3 USA D 95.41134423 3.69872773 0.43769705 0.81650 0.14605 0.03005 0.00130 0.00610 0.99260 0.86215 0.71625 0.42115 0.28805
4 Japan C 92.55419836 2.83961915 0.53694739 0.85900 0.12045 0.02050 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.79320 0.41400 0.24040 0.09075
5 Canada A 90.04710025 2.33920354 0.67958126 0.69435 0.22465 0.06525 0.00345 0.01230 0.98425 0.75280 0.40690 0.19545 0.07120
6 France F 92.42914308 2.84828867 0.58464365 0.87405 0.09690 0.02485 0.00055 0.00365 0.99580 0.71145 0.27540 0.13060 0.06565
7 Brazil E 92.21039127 2.80664717 0.60480284 0.69155 0.22040 0.06920 0.00730 0.01155 0.98115 0.51800 0.27710 0.15665 0.06075
8 Sweden D 91.65275728 2.76727126 0.72321512 0.12315 0.39240 0.15015 0.15565 0.17865 0.66570 0.35985 0.21245 0.10180 0.03945
9 Norway B 88.90930206 2.20525116 0.80284453 0.10750 0.84225 0.04550 0.00475 0.00000 0.99525 0.53365 0.25330 0.09790 0.02395
10 England F 89.28841889 2.21074029 0.72094636 0.05155 0.59385 0.21015 0.05695 0.08750 0.85555 0.39875 0.18745 0.07220 0.01825
11 Australia D 88.81760353 2.37825670 1.01301213 0.02025 0.25165 0.23360 0.08735 0.40715 0.50550 0.18450 0.08735 0.03775 0.01140
12 Netherlands A 86.36880928 1.89806890 1.00702784 0.24590 0.41225 0.24630 0.04095 0.05460 0.90445 0.45610 0.13640 0.03755 0.00800
13 Nigeria D 86.61056740 1.86284038 0.92026141 0.04010 0.20990 0.18025 0.16165 0.40810 0.43025 0.13675 0.05800 0.01890 0.00415
14 Spain E 84.72551619 1.62091341 1.01611169 0.15545 0.36295 0.26160 0.08475 0.13525 0.78000 0.17785 0.04860 0.01415 0.00345
15 China A 85.09506547 1.44500408 0.75512409 0.03980 0.27450 0.26035 0.10745 0.31790 0.57465 0.22485 0.05245 0.01190 0.00270
16 South Korea E 84.27678298 1.75443658 1.24416555 0.14045 0.34630 0.27490 0.09325 0.14510 0.76165 0.17325 0.04685 0.01155 0.00240
17 Switzerland C 83.52637196 1.80663399 1.43389098 0.00970 0.42300 0.47595 0.07140 0.01995 0.90865 0.28945 0.06220 0.01130 0.00240
18 Cameroon C 80.57377141 1.24722206 1.31289424 0.13130 0.45580 0.40370 0.00900 0.00020 0.99080 0.27780 0.04920 0.00830 0.00095
19 New Zealand A 82.21449094 1.40767371 1.21983316 0.01995 0.08860 0.19640 0.07985 0.61520 0.30495 0.08310 0.01650 0.00345 0.00060
20 Mexico F 81.12292611 1.52626714 1.52952990 0.05010 0.19230 0.26890 0.13380 0.35490 0.51130 0.11500 0.02735 0.00510 0.00030
21 Colombia F 77.90512281 0.85405310 1.30002664 0.02430 0.11695 0.18690 0.11790 0.55395 0.32815 0.05845 0.01280 0.00185 0.00010
22 Ivory Coast B 73.06091869 1.34694783 2.55348262 0.00020 0.04955 0.17465 0.32105 0.45455 0.22440 0.02495 0.00320 0.00055 0.00005
23 Costa Rica E 72.85634040 0.82461438 2.01039193 0.01255 0.07035 0.12260 0.08640 0.70810 0.20550 0.01060 0.00110 0.00000 0.00000
24 Thailand B 67.47659992 0.87225619 2.79303283 0.00005 0.00090 0.08880 0.36480 0.54545 0.08975 0.00315 0.00015 0.00000 0.00000
25 Ecuador C 58.96893620 0.43368042 3.39070014 0.00000 0.00075 0.00900 0.01040 0.97985 0.00975 0.00015 0.00005 0.00000 0.00000

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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150609-145605.csv Normal file
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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,F,France,England,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.66247075,0.14208918,0.19544006
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.30538056,0.45485397,0.23976547
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,0.65148370,0.14956030,0.19895600
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.71692745,0.10699346,0.17607910
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,0.34250880,0.41481244,0.24267877
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.49386336,0.27105250,0.23508414
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.68464684,0.12740645,0.18794671
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,0.44949184,0.31023921,0.24026895
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,0.86529970,0.02910475,0.10559555
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.57820128,0.20269905,0.21909967
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,0.75383902,0.08508232,0.16107866
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.80205956,0.05887547,0.13906498
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,0.63934798,0.15796311,0.20268891
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,0.61663862,0.17411062,0.20925075
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.65043021,0.15028348,0.19928631
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00377534,0.95441089,0.04181377
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.07264921,0.77606978,0.15128101
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.20694386,0.57266967,0.22038647
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.45471672,0.30550450,0.23977878
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00402772,0.95148718,0.04448510
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.45255022,0.30746378,0.23998600
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.08712443,0.75028431,0.16259126
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.27685645,0.48712468,0.23601888
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.09499259,0.73681889,0.16818852
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.69115932,0.12319600,0.18564467
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.02423667,0.87701648,0.09874685
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.36613310,0.39040125,0.24346566
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
10 2015-06-09 F France England 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.66247075 0.14208918 0.19544006
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.30538056 0.45485397 0.23976547
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 0.65148370 0.14956030 0.19895600
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.71692745 0.10699346 0.17607910
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 0.34250880 0.41481244 0.24267877
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.49386336 0.27105250 0.23508414
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.68464684 0.12740645 0.18794671
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 0.44949184 0.31023921 0.24026895
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.86529970 0.02910475 0.10559555
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.57820128 0.20269905 0.21909967
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.75383902 0.08508232 0.16107866
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.80205956 0.05887547 0.13906498
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.63934798 0.15796311 0.20268891
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.61663862 0.17411062 0.20925075
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.65043021 0.15028348 0.19928631
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00377534 0.95441089 0.04181377
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.07264921 0.77606978 0.15128101
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20694386 0.57266967 0.22038647
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45471672 0.30550450 0.23977878
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00402772 0.95148718 0.04448510
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.45255022 0.30746378 0.23998600
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08712443 0.75028431 0.16259126
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.27685645 0.48712468 0.23601888
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09499259 0.73681889 0.16818852
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.69115932 0.12319600 0.18564467
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02423667 0.87701648 0.09874685
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.36613310 0.39040125 0.24346566