Update pollster-ratings 2024

pollster-ratings/README.md

@@ -5,53 +5,69 @@ This directory contains the data behind FiveThirtyEight's pollster ratings.
 See also:
 
 * [FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/)
-* [The Death Of Polling Is Greatly Exaggerated](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated/)
+* [What are the best pollsters in America?](https://abcnews.go.com/538/best-pollsters-america/story?id=105563951) (2024)
+* [The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) (2023)
+* [The Death Of Polling Is Greatly Exaggerated](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated/) (2021)
 * [The State Of The Polls, 2019](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2019/)
-* [The Polls Are All Right](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/)
+* [The Polls Are All Right](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/) (2018)
 * [The State Of The Polls, 2016](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2016/)
-* [How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-calculates-pollster-ratings/)
+* [How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-calculates-pollster-ratings/). Note: This methodology was in effect from 2014 through 2023.
+* [How 538's pollster ratings work](https://abcnews.go.com/538/538s-pollster-ratings-work/story?id=105398138). Note: This methodology is in effect from 2024 onward.
 
-Past data:
+Past data can be found in the directories in this repository. The codebook for data calculated between 2014 and 2023 can be found [here](README_PRE2024.md). 
 
-* [2014](2014/)
-* [2016](2016/)
-* [2018](2018/)
-* [2019](2019/)
-* [2020](2020/)
-* [2021](2021/)
+---
 
-`pollster-stats-full.xlsx` contains a spreadsheet with all of the summary data and calculations involved in determining the pollster ratings as well as descriptions for each column.
-
-`pollster-ratings.csv` has ratings and calculations for each pollster. A copy of this data and descriptions for each column can also be found in `pollster-stats-full.xlsx`.
-
-`raw-polls.csv` contains all of the polls analyzed to give each pollster a grade. Descriptions for each column are in the table below.
+`raw-polls.csv` contains all of the polls analyzed to give each pollster a rating. Descriptions for each column are in the table below.
 
 Header | Definition
 ---|---------
-`pollno` | FiveThirtyEight poll ID number
-`race` | Election polled
-`year` | Year of election (not year of poll)
-`location` | Location (state or Congressional district, or "US" for national polls)
-`type_simple` | Type of election (5 categories)
-`type_detail` | Detailed type of election (this distinguishes between Republican and Democratic primaries, for example, whereas `type_simple` does not)
-`pollster` | Pollster name
-`methodology` | Methodology used to conduct this poll. One or more of the following values: <ul><li>`Live Phone` — Live telephone interviews, may or may not include calls to cell phones</li><li>`IVR`  — Interactive voice response, otherwise known as automated polls or "robopolls"</li><li>`Mail`— By U.S. mail or other “snail mail” service</li><li>`Online`— Poll conducted by Internet; generally this mean by web browser, or application-based polling of mobile phones</li><li>`Text` — Poll conducted by text message</li><li>`Face-to-face` — Poll conducted in person</ul> Mixed method polls list the methods involved in the poll separated by slashes.
+`poll_id` | FiveThirtyEight poll ID number.
+`question_id` | FiveThirtyEight question ID number. Note that there may be more than one question from the same poll included in the data.
+`race_id` | FiveThirtyEight race ID number.
+`cycle` | Election cycle.
+`location` | Geography of the question. This may be a state, House district, or the US.
+`type_simple` | Category of the race. This value is structured with the type of election (`Sen`, `Gov`, `Pres`, or `House`) followed by a dash, and then either `P` or `G` to indicate if the survey is of a primary or general election, respectively. House generic ballot polls are noted as `House-G-US`.
+`race` | Race for this question. This is structured as the year, followed by an underscore and the simple type, followed by an underscore and the location. For presidential primaries, the party is indicated with a `-R` or `-D` after `Pres`.
+`pollster` | Pollster name.
+`pollster_rating_id` | FiveThirtyEight pollster rating ID number.
+`aapor_roper` | Boolean flag for whether the pollster is a member of the [AAPOR Transparency Initiative](https://aapor.org/standards-and-ethics/transparency-initiative/) or contributes polls to the [Roper Center](https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/).
+`inactive` | Boolean flag for whether the pollster appears to still be conducting publicly available opinion polls.
+`methodology` | Mode used to conduct this poll. This should be a combination of one or more of the following values, separated by a forward slash:<ul><li>`Live Phone` — Live telephone interviews, may or may not include calls to cell phones</li><li>`IVR`  — Interactive voice response, otherwise known as automated polls or "robopolls"</li><li>`Online Panel` — Opt-in online panel, either proprietary or contracted to a panel provider</li><li>`Text-to-Web` — Recruitment via text messages that direct participants to a website to complete the survey</li><li>`Probability Panel` — [Probability based online panel](https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-do-probability-based-online-panels-work)</li><li>`Email` — Recruitment via emails that direct participants to a website to complete the survey</li><li>`Mail-to-Web` — Recruitment via snail mail that directs participants to a website to complete the survey</li><li>`Mail-to-Phone` — Recruitment via snail mail that directs participants to call a phone number to complete the survey</li><li>`Text` — Recruitment via text message in which questions are asked directly over SMS</li><li>`Mail`— By U.S. mail or other “snail mail” service</li><li>`Online Ad` — Recruitment via advertisement on websites, mobile games, or other online medium</li><li>`App Panel` — Opt-in panel using a proprietary app</li><li>`Face-to-face` — Poll conducted in person</li></ul>
 `partisan` | Flag for internal/partisan poll. "D" indicates Democratic poll, "R" indicates Republican poll, "I" indicates poll put out by independent candidate's campaign. Note that different sources define these categories differently and our categorization will often reflect the original source's definition. In other words, these definitions may be inconsistent and should be used carefully.
-`polldate` | Median field date of the poll
-`samplesize` | Sample size of the poll. Where missing, this is estimated from the poll's margin of error, or similar polls conducted by the same polling firm. A sample size of 600 is used if no better estimate is available.
+`polldate` | Median field date of the poll.
+`electiondate` | Date of the election.
+`time_to_election` | Number of days between the median field date of the poll and the election date.
+`samplesize` | Sample size of the question. For questions with no sample size available, this is approximated as the median sample size for races of the same type.
 `cand1_name` | Name of Candidate #1. Candidates #1 and #2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election (regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll). In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate #1 is the Democrat.
-`cand1_party` | Name of Candidate #1. Candidates #1 and #2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election (regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll). In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate #1 is the Democrat.
+`cand1_id` | FiveThirtyEight ID number for Candidate #1.
+`cand1_party` | Party code for Candidate #1.
 `cand1_pct` | Candidate #1's share of the vote in the poll.
-`cand2_name` | Name of Candidate #2. Candidates #1 and #2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election (regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll). In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate #2 is the Republican.
+`cand1_actual` | Actual share of vote for Candidate #1
+`cand2_name` | Name of Candidate #2. 
+`cand2_id` | FiveThirtyEight ID number for Candidate #2.
 `cand2_party` | Party of Candidate #2.
 `cand2_pct` | Candidate #2's share of the vote in the poll.
-`cand3_pct` | Share of the vote for the top candidate listed in the poll, other than Candidate #1 and Candidate #2.
-`margin_poll` | Projected margin of victory (defeat) for Candidate #1. This is calculated as `cand1_pct - cand2_pct`. In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic lead; negative values a Repubican lead.
-`electiondate` | Date of election
-`cand1_actual` | Actual share of vote for Candidate #1
 `cand2_actual` | Actual share of vote for Candidate #2
+`margin_poll` | Projected margin of victory (defeat) for Candidate #1. This is calculated as `cand1_pct - cand2_pct`. In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic lead; negative values a Repubican lead.
 `margin_actual` | Actual margin in the election. This is calculated as `cand1_actual - cand2_actual`. In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic win; negative values a Republican win.
-`error` | Absolute value of the difference between the actual and polled result. This is calculated as `abs(margin_poll - margin_actual)`
-`bias` | Statistical bias of the poll. This is calculated only for races in which the top two finishers were a Democrat and a Republican. It is calculated as `margin_poll - margin_actual`. Positive values indicate a Democratic bias (the Democrat did better in the poll than the election). Negative values indicate a Republican bias.
-`rightcall` | Flag to indicate whether the pollster called the outcome correctly, i.e. whether the candidate they had listed in 1st place won the election. A 1 indicates a correct call and a 0 an incorrect call; 0.5 indicates that the pollster had two or more candidates tied for the lead and one of the tied candidates won.
-`comment` | Additional information, such as alternate names for the poll.
+
+
+`pollster-ratings-combined.csv` contains the output of the pollster ratings algorithm for each pollster. A description of the columns is in the table below.
+
+Header | Definition
+---|---------
+`pollster` | Pollster name.
+`pollster_rating_id` | FiveThirtyEight pollster rating ID number.
+`aapor_roper` | Boolean flag for whether the pollster is a member of the [AAPOR Transparency Initiative](https://aapor.org/standards-and-ethics/transparency-initiative/) or contributes polls to the [Roper Center](https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/).
+`inactive` | Boolean flag for whether the pollster appears to still be conducting publicly available opinion polls.
+`numeric_grade` | FiveThirtyEight numeric overall rating for the pollster.
+`rank` | FiveThirtyEight pollster rank based on numeric grade. Note that pollsters that are flagged as inactive do not have a numeric grade and appear at the end of the rankings; this is not intended to indicate anything about their skill level.
+`POLLSCORE` | Score including both error and bias (but not transparency). Lower numbers are better. Stands for Predictive Optimization of Latent skill Level in Surveys, Considering Overall Record, Empirically.
+`wtd_avg_transparency` | Average transparency score for polls conducted by this pollster, weighted by the age of the survey.
+`number_polls_pollster_total` | Number of questions used to evaluate the pollster.
+`percent_partisan_work` | Percent of the pollster's polls that are considered partisan by FiveThirtyEight's standards.
+`error_ppm` | Predictive Plus-Minus for pollster's absolute error, as described in the pollster ratings methodology.
+`bias_ppm` | Predictive Plus-Minus for pollster bias, as described in the pollster ratings methodology.
+`number_polls_pollster_time_weighted` | Number of questions used to evaluate the pollster, weighted by the age of the survey.
+`ranking_value` | Value used to determine pollster rank, as described in the pollster ratings methodology.

pollster-ratings/README_PRE2024.md

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+# FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings Historical Codebook
+
+`pollster-stats-full.xlsx` contains a spreadsheet with all of the summary data and calculations involved in determining the pollster ratings as well as descriptions for each column.
+
+`pollster-ratings.csv` has ratings and calculations for each pollster. A copy of this data and descriptions for each column can also be found in `pollster-stats-full.xlsx`.
+
+`raw-polls.csv` contains all of the polls analyzed to give each pollster a grade. Descriptions for each column are in the table below.
+
+Header | Definition
+---|---------
+`pollno` | FiveThirtyEight poll ID number
+`race` | Election polled
+`year` | Year of election (not year of poll)
+`location` | Location (state or Congressional district, or "US" for national polls)
+`type_simple` | Type of election (5 categories)
+`type_detail` | Detailed type of election (this distinguishes between Republican and Democratic primaries, for example, whereas `type_simple` does not)
+`pollster` | Pollster name
+`methodology` | Methodology used to conduct this poll. One or more of the following values: <ul><li>`Live Phone` — Live telephone interviews, may or may not include calls to cell phones</li><li>`IVR`  — Interactive voice response, otherwise known as automated polls or "robopolls"</li><li>`Mail`— By U.S. mail or other “snail mail” service</li><li>`Online`— Poll conducted by Internet; generally this mean by web browser, or application-based polling of mobile phones</li><li>`Text` — Poll conducted by text message</li><li>`Face-to-face` — Poll conducted in person</ul> Mixed method polls list the methods involved in the poll separated by slashes.
+`partisan` | Flag for internal/partisan poll. "D" indicates Democratic poll, "R" indicates Republican poll, "I" indicates poll put out by independent candidate's campaign. Note that different sources define these categories differently and our categorization will often reflect the original source's definition. In other words, these definitions may be inconsistent and should be used carefully.
+`polldate` | Median field date of the poll
+`samplesize` | Sample size of the poll. Where missing, this is estimated from the poll's margin of error, or similar polls conducted by the same polling firm. A sample size of 600 is used if no better estimate is available.
+`cand1_name` | Name of Candidate #1. Candidates #1 and #2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election (regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll). In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate #1 is the Democrat.
+`cand1_party` | Name of Candidate #1. Candidates #1 and #2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election (regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll). In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate #1 is the Democrat.
+`cand1_pct` | Candidate #1's share of the vote in the poll.
+`cand2_name` | Name of Candidate #2. Candidates #1 and #2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election (regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll). In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate #2 is the Republican.
+`cand2_party` | Party of Candidate #2.
+`cand2_pct` | Candidate #2's share of the vote in the poll.
+`cand3_pct` | Share of the vote for the top candidate listed in the poll, other than Candidate #1 and Candidate #2.
+`margin_poll` | Projected margin of victory (defeat) for Candidate #1. This is calculated as `cand1_pct - cand2_pct`. In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic lead; negative values a Repubican lead.
+`electiondate` | Date of election
+`cand1_actual` | Actual share of vote for Candidate #1
+`cand2_actual` | Actual share of vote for Candidate #2
+`margin_actual` | Actual margin in the election. This is calculated as `cand1_actual - cand2_actual`. In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic win; negative values a Republican win.
+`error` | Absolute value of the difference between the actual and polled result. This is calculated as `abs(margin_poll - margin_actual)`
+`bias` | Statistical bias of the poll. This is calculated only for races in which the top two finishers were a Democrat and a Republican. It is calculated as `margin_poll - margin_actual`. Positive values indicate a Democratic bias (the Democrat did better in the poll than the election). Negative values indicate a Republican bias.
+`rightcall` | Flag to indicate whether the pollster called the outcome correctly, i.e. whether the candidate they had listed in 1st place won the election. A 1 indicates a correct call and a 0 an incorrect call; 0.5 indicates that the pollster had two or more candidates tied for the lead and one of the tied candidates won.
+`comment` | Additional information, such as alternate names for the poll.

pollster-ratings/pollster-ratings-combined.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,537 @@
+pollster,pollster_rating_id,aapor_roper,inactive,numeric_grade,rank,POLLSCORE,wtd_avg_transparency,number_polls_pollster_total,percent_partisan_work,error_ppm,bias_ppm,number_polls_pollster_time_weighted,ranking_value
+The New York Times/Siena College,448,TRUE,FALSE,3,1,-1.5,8.7,122,0,-1.1,-2,114,-2
+Marquette University Law School,195,TRUE,FALSE,3,2,-1,9.7,21,0,-1,-1,12.8,-2
+SurveyUSA,325,FALSE,FALSE,3,3,-1.3,8.7,1111,0,-0.7,-1.8,235.6,-2
+Monmouth University,215,TRUE,FALSE,3,4,-0.9,9.9,148,0,-0.7,-1.1,84.2,-2
+YouGov,391,FALSE,FALSE,3,5,-1.1,8.7,624,0,-0.4,-1.7,291.4,-2
+Suffolk University,323,TRUE,FALSE,2.9,6,-1,8.5,123,0,-0.6,-1.4,58.1,-1.9
+Marist College,183,TRUE,FALSE,2.9,7,-0.8,9,211,0,-0.7,-1,94.9,-1.9
+Data Orbital,73,TRUE,FALSE,2.9,8,-0.9,9,19,0,-0.7,-1.1,16,-1.9
+University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion,355,TRUE,FALSE,2.9,9,-0.9,8.6,31,0,-0.8,-1.1,25.1,-1.9
+Emerson College,88,TRUE,FALSE,2.9,10,-0.9,8.1,273,0,-0.8,-1.1,248.9,-1.9
+University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab,360,TRUE,FALSE,2.9,11,-0.6,9.8,15,0,-0.5,-0.7,11.9,-1.8
+Muhlenberg College,219,TRUE,FALSE,2.9,12,-0.9,8,39,0,-0.8,-1.1,16.3,-1.8
+Selzer & Co.,304,TRUE,FALSE,2.8,13,-1,7.4,64,0,-1.1,-1,23.3,-1.8
+ABC News/The Washington Post,3,TRUE,FALSE,2.8,14,-1.1,7,98,0,-1,-1.2,25.8,-1.8
+Quinnipiac University,267,TRUE,FALSE,2.8,15,-0.5,9.5,296,0,-0,-0.9,111.2,-1.8
+Ipsos,154,TRUE,FALSE,2.8,16,-0.9,7.7,268,0,-0.3,-1.4,162.4,-1.7
+Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research,103,TRUE,FALSE,2.8,17,-1,6.8,73,0,-0.8,-1.3,53.4,-1.7
+Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership,50,TRUE,FALSE,2.8,18,-0.6,8.3,19,0,-0.6,-0.5,13.3,-1.7
+Siena College,305,TRUE,FALSE,2.8,19,-0.8,7.3,83,0,-0.5,-1.1,41.6,-1.7
+MassINC Polling Group,198,TRUE,FALSE,2.8,20,-0.8,6.8,28,0,-0.9,-0.6,16.5,-1.6
+AtlasIntel,546,TRUE,FALSE,2.7,21,-0.7,6.5,24,0,-1.2,-0.2,25.9,-1.6
+East Carolina University Center for Survey Research,523,TRUE,FALSE,2.7,22,-0.5,7.7,19,0,-0.2,-0.9,22.8,-1.6
+Echelon Insights,407,FALSE,FALSE,2.7,23,-0.7,5.8,10,0,-0.8,-0.6,13.5,-1.6
+Data for Progress,522,FALSE,FALSE,2.7,24,-1.1,4,125,0.1,-0.4,-1.8,154.8,-1.5
+Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies,221,TRUE,FALSE,2.7,25,-0.6,6,53,0,-0.2,-0.9,21.2,-1.5
+Stockton University,317,TRUE,FALSE,2.7,26,-0.5,7.3,20,0,-0.3,-0.6,12.8,-1.5
+The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government,754,TRUE,FALSE,2.7,27,-0.7,9.3,8,0,-0.8,-0.8,6.8,-1.9
+Remington Research Group,279,FALSE,FALSE,2.7,28,-0.6,4.8,58,0,-0.2,-1,44.5,-1.5
+University of New Hampshire Survey Center,357,TRUE,FALSE,2.6,29,-0.3,9.4,152,0,0.2,-0.7,60.8,-1.5
+Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy,197,FALSE,FALSE,2.6,30,-1,3.9,504,0,-0.5,-1.6,71.2,-1.5
+Civiqs,471,FALSE,FALSE,2.6,31,-0.3,8.6,57,0.1,-0.4,-0.2,70.9,-1.4
+University of Arkansas Department of Political Science,345,TRUE,FALSE,2.6,32,-0.4,6.7,14,0,-0.1,-0.7,8.2,-1.4
+Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research,292,TRUE,FALSE,2.6,33,-0.3,8,21,0,0.2,-0.8,9.7,-1.4
+Gallup,112,TRUE,FALSE,2.6,34,-0.4,7.2,105,0,-0.1,-0.7,10.8,-1.4
+Fairleigh Dickinson University,92,TRUE,FALSE,2.6,35,-0.6,7.8,28,0,-0.4,-0.8,6.2,-1.6
+Saint Anselm College Survey Center,494,FALSE,FALSE,2.6,36,-0.5,4.4,17,0,-0.4,-0.6,18.3,-1.3
+Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group,114,TRUE,FALSE,2.6,37,-0.5,6.9,48,0,-0.2,-0.8,6.7,-1.5
+Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research,463,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,38,-0.6,10,2,0,-0.5,-0.6,1.6,-1.7
+Elon University,86,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,39,-0.5,8.5,8,0,-0.3,-0.7,2.7,-1.6
+Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute,430,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,40,-0.5,7,4,0,-0.3,-0.6,1,-1.5
+Reconnect Research/Roanoke College,587,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,41,-0.4,9,2,0,-0.2,-0.6,2.2,-1.5
+University of Florida Bob Graham Center for Public Service,349,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,42,-0.4,7.3,2,0,-0.2,-0.6,0.8,-1.5
+University of Illinois Springfield Survey Research Office,498,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,43,-0.4,7.5,2,0,-0.2,-0.6,0.8,-1.5
+Temple University Institute for Survey Research,336,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,44,-0.4,7.1,5,0,-0.2,-0.6,0.5,-1.5
+Pew Research Center,253,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,45,-0.4,7.7,29,0,-0.1,-0.7,4.9,-1.5
+Public Policy Institute of California,262,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,46,-0.3,9.4,20,0,-0.3,-0.3,6.5,-1.5
+Harvard University,135,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,47,-0.4,6.9,1,0,-0.2,-0.6,0,-1.5
+Belden Russonello,28,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,48,-0.4,6.9,3,0,-0.2,-0.6,0.2,-1.5
+High Point University Survey Research Center,139,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,49,-0.4,8.2,6,0,-0.1,-0.6,3,-1.4
+Western New England University Polling Institute,380,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,50,-0.4,6.5,11,0,-0.2,-0.6,4.3,-1.4
+Abt Associates,7,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,51,-0.4,7.5,15,0,-0.1,-0.6,3.8,-1.4
+University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies,457,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,52,-0.3,9.3,5,0,-0.1,-0.5,4.7,-1.4
+The Winston Group,385,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,53,-0.4,5.7,13,1,-0.4,-0.3,5.1,-1.4
+The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement,755,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,54,-0.3,8.8,2,0,-0.1,-0.5,0.9,-1.4
+St. Pete Polls,314,FALSE,FALSE,2.5,55,-0.4,5.3,30,0,-0.1,-0.6,20.5,-1.2
+Øptimus Analytics,245,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,56,-0.3,6.8,20,0.2,-0.3,-0.2,11.8,-1.2
+Research Co.,449,FALSE,FALSE,2.5,57,-0.4,4.2,58,0,0.1,-1,65.1,-1.2
+Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research,386,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,58,-0.3,7.2,6,0,-0.2,-0.4,1.3,-1.3
+Middle Tennessee State University,208,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,59,-0.3,7.1,5,0,-0.1,-0.6,1.3,-1.4
+KFF,419,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,60,-0.2,9.7,2,0,-0,-0.5,1.3,-1.3
+RMG Research,555,FALSE,FALSE,2.5,61,-0.5,4,38,0,-0.1,-0.9,41,-1.2
+University of Southern California Center for Economic and Social Research,343,TRUE,FALSE,2.5,62,-0.2,8.3,11,0,0.4,-0.7,8.3,-1.2
+Blueprint Polling,470,FALSE,FALSE,2.5,63,-0.3,5.6,2,0,-0.6,-0.1,3,-1.1
+Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.,326,FALSE,FALSE,2.5,64,-0.4,4.1,59,0,-0.4,-0.5,33.8,-1.1
+Noble Predictive Insights,235,FALSE,FALSE,2.4,65,-0.4,4.1,14,0,-0.1,-0.6,14.4,-1.1
+Braun Research,33,FALSE,FALSE,2.4,66,-0.3,5.2,10,0,-0.3,-0.3,4.5,-1.1
+American Research Group,9,TRUE,FALSE,2.4,67,-0.2,6.7,304,0,0.8,-1.2,65.9,-1.1
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+Kiaer Research,585,FALSE,FALSE,1.5,243,0.4,5.6,2,0,0.6,0.2,2.2,0.5
+Keating Research,161,FALSE,FALSE,1.5,244,0.1,3.4,6,0.3,-0.1,0.4,2.3,0.4
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+Digital Research,64,FALSE,FALSE,1.4,249,0.1,3.4,29,0.1,0.4,-0.2,6,0.5
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+Nelson Research,703,FALSE,FALSE,1.4,251,0.1,2.8,1,0,0.2,0,1,0.5
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+Mercury Public Affairs,657,FALSE,FALSE,1.4,272,0.2,2.8,1,1,0.1,0.4,0.1,0.6
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+Zogby Analytics,395,FALSE,FALSE,1.3,282,0.6,4,601,0,1.5,-0.4,60.4,0.7
+SmithJohnson Opinion Research,367,FALSE,FALSE,1.3,283,0.3,2.4,1,1,0.1,0.4,0.1,0.7
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+Probolsky Research,259,FALSE,FALSE,1.3,291,0.3,3.3,3,0.2,0.1,0.4,1.7,0.8
+RBI Strategies & Research,271,FALSE,FALSE,1.3,292,0.2,3,4,0,0.2,0.2,2.1,0.8
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+Harstad Strategic Research,134,FALSE,FALSE,1.2,304,0.6,3.7,18,1,0.3,0.8,4.9,0.9
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+DeSales University Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center,474,FALSE,FALSE,1.1,323,0.2,1.3,3,0,0.3,0.1,2.4,1.1
+MRG Research,207,FALSE,FALSE,1,324,0.6,3.5,35,0,0.5,0.7,9.8,1.1
+Strategies 360,321,FALSE,FALSE,1,325,0.2,2.1,10,0.2,0.1,0.3,7.3,1.2
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+Thomas Partners Strategies,452,FALSE,FALSE,1,329,0.3,0.7,2,0,0.4,0.1,1.6,1.2
+OnMessage Inc.,239,FALSE,FALSE,1,330,0.2,1.7,16,1,-0.2,0.6,7.1,1.2
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+EMC Research,130,FALSE,FALSE,0.9,340,0.6,3.1,18,0.9,0.4,0.9,2.8,1.3
+brilliant corners Research & Strategies,564,FALSE,FALSE,0.9,341,0.4,0.7,1,1,0.3,0.6,0.7,1.3
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+Dynata,283,FALSE,TRUE,NA,407,-0,2.8,2,0,0.1,-0.1,1.1,NA
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+Financial Dynamics,95,FALSE,TRUE,NA,412,0.2,3.9,22,0,0.3,0.2,3.2,NA
+Florida International University/Univision,98,FALSE,TRUE,NA,413,-0,4.2,1,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+Forman Center,100,FALSE,TRUE,NA,414,0,3.3,2,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+Forward Strategies,102,FALSE,TRUE,NA,415,-0,3.6,2,0,0,-0.1,0.4,NA
+Frank N. Magid Associates Inc.,105,FALSE,TRUE,NA,416,-0,4,7,0,0.1,-0.1,0.4,NA
+Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication,107,FALSE,TRUE,NA,417,-0,3.9,20,0,0.1,-0.1,1.2,NA
+Gannett New Jersey,760,FALSE,TRUE,NA,418,-0,3.9,8,0,0.1,-0.1,0.3,NA
+GaPundit.com,111,FALSE,TRUE,NA,419,0.1,3.7,2,0,0.2,-0.1,0.8,NA
+Garin-Hart-Yang/Global Strategy Group,412,FALSE,TRUE,NA,420,0.2,3.2,1,1,-0,0.4,0.2,NA
+Gazette Communications,640,FALSE,TRUE,NA,421,-0,3.6,2,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+GfK Group,115,TRUE,TRUE,NA,422,-0.4,7.8,21,0,-0.1,-0.7,4.4,NA
+Glascock Group,116,FALSE,TRUE,NA,423,0.2,2.9,1,0,0.3,0.1,0.3,NA
+Global Strategy Group/Lester & Associates,806,FALSE,TRUE,NA,424,0.2,1.8,2,1,-0,0.4,0.9,NA
+Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer),119,FALSE,TRUE,NA,425,-0,4,8,0,0.1,-0.1,2.2,NA
+GOP Calls,654,FALSE,TRUE,NA,426,0.4,1.6,2,1,0.3,0.6,0.4,NA
+Gordon S. Black Corp.,123,TRUE,TRUE,NA,427,-0.4,6.8,2,0,-0.2,-0.6,0.1,NA
+GQR Research/Public Opinion Strategies,222,TRUE,TRUE,NA,428,-0.4,7.3,1,0,-0.2,-0.6,0,NA
+Great Lakes Strategies Group,125,FALSE,TRUE,NA,429,0.3,3.1,1,1,0.1,0.4,0.1,NA
+Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint,127,TRUE,TRUE,NA,430,-0.3,7.1,8,0,-0.2,-0.5,2.9,NA
+Grove Insight,129,FALSE,TRUE,NA,431,-0.1,3.9,39,1,-0.6,0.4,8.7,NA
+Harper Polling/Clarity Campaign Labs,513,FALSE,TRUE,NA,432,0.1,2.1,1,0,0.1,-0,0.7,NA
+Hellenthal & Associates,137,FALSE,TRUE,NA,433,0.2,3.5,5,0.1,0.1,0.3,1.4,NA
+Howey Politics/DePauw University,142,FALSE,TRUE,NA,434,-0,3.5,8,0,0.1,-0.1,1.5,NA
+icitizen,438,FALSE,TRUE,NA,435,0.1,4.9,1,0,0.2,0,0.4,NA
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+Independent Market Research,148,FALSE,TRUE,NA,437,-0,4.2,2,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+Indiana State University Department of Multidisciplinary Studies,658,FALSE,TRUE,NA,438,-0,2.9,1,0,0,-0.1,0.1,NA
+Indiana University Public Opinion Laboratory,149,TRUE,TRUE,NA,439,-0.4,5.8,3,0,-0.2,-0.6,0.2,NA
+Iona University Political Science Department,152,FALSE,TRUE,NA,440,-0,4.1,2,0,0.1,-0.1,0.4,NA
+IVR Polls,146,FALSE,TRUE,NA,441,-0.1,3.8,4,0,0,-0.1,0.5,NA
+Jeffrey Stonecash,158,FALSE,TRUE,NA,442,0.3,2.8,1,1,0.1,0.5,0.1,NA
+Jim Meader (KELOLAND-TV),159,FALSE,TRUE,NA,443,-0,3.8,5,0,0.1,-0.1,0.2,NA
+JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns,503,FALSE,TRUE,NA,444,0.1,3,5,0,0.1,0,3.4,NA
+Kiley & Company,162,FALSE,TRUE,NA,445,0.5,4.1,6,1,0.2,0.8,1.7,NA
+Kimball Political Consulting,163,FALSE,TRUE,NA,446,0.1,3.7,7,0,0.2,-0,2,NA
+Knowledge Networks,164,TRUE,TRUE,NA,447,-0.4,8.2,6,0,-0.2,-0.6,0.6,NA
+KRC Research,160,TRUE,TRUE,NA,448,-0.3,6.9,24,0,-0.1,-0.5,1.1,NA
+Lauer Johnson Research,167,FALSE,TRUE,NA,449,0.3,3.5,1,1,0.1,0.4,0.1,NA
+"Lauer, Lalley, Victoria",168,FALSE,TRUE,NA,450,0.2,2.7,1,1,0.1,0.4,0,NA
+Liberty Opinion Research,169,FALSE,TRUE,NA,451,0.1,2.8,1,0,0.2,0,0.4,NA
+Los Angeles Times,172,TRUE,TRUE,NA,452,-0.4,6.9,39,0,-0.1,-0.6,3.2,NA
+Louis Harris & Associates,173,TRUE,TRUE,NA,453,-0.4,7,2,0,-0.2,-0.6,0.1,NA
+Louisville Courier-Journal,174,FALSE,TRUE,NA,454,-0.1,3.3,10,0,0.1,-0.2,0.7,NA
+Lycoming College Polling Institute,176,FALSE,TRUE,NA,455,0,3.4,3,0,0.1,-0.1,0.4,NA
+Manhattanville College,181,FALSE,TRUE,NA,456,-0,4.4,4,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+MarblePort,182,FALSE,TRUE,NA,457,0.1,4.1,1,0,0.1,0,0.4,NA
+Market Decisions Research,184,FALSE,TRUE,NA,458,-0,4.8,4,0,0,-0.1,0.3,NA
+Market Research Institute Inc.,186,FALSE,TRUE,NA,459,-0.1,3.8,11,0,0.1,-0.2,0.7,NA
+Market Shares Corp.,187,FALSE,TRUE,NA,460,-0,3.8,38,0,0.1,-0.1,3.5,NA
+Market Solutions Group,188,FALSE,TRUE,NA,461,-0,4,5,0,0,-0.1,0.3,NA
+Market Trends Pacific,190,FALSE,TRUE,NA,462,-0,3.3,1,0,0.1,-0.1,0,NA
+MarketAide Services Inc.,191,FALSE,TRUE,NA,463,0,3.7,1,0,0.1,-0.1,0,NA
+Marketing Research Institute,192,FALSE,TRUE,NA,464,0.2,3.9,1,1,0.1,0.4,0,NA
+Marketing Workshop,194,FALSE,TRUE,NA,465,0.1,3.6,8,0,0.2,-0.1,0.4,NA
+Mason Strategies,464,FALSE,TRUE,NA,466,-0.1,4.2,1,0,-0.1,-0.1,0.5,NA
+Massie & Associates,199,FALSE,TRUE,NA,467,0.3,2.3,2,1,0.1,0.4,0.1,NA
+McKeon & Associates,202,FALSE,TRUE,NA,468,-0.1,3.5,3,0,-0.1,-0.1,1.2,NA
+Merrill Poll,206,FALSE,TRUE,NA,469,-0,3.5,2,0,0,-0.1,1.1,NA
+Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs,210,FALSE,TRUE,NA,470,0.1,4,5,0,0.2,-0,0.2,NA
+Minneapolis Star Tribune,315,FALSE,TRUE,NA,471,0,3.7,21,0,0.1,-0,1.5,NA
+Minnesota State University Moorhead Public Affairs Institute,211,FALSE,TRUE,NA,472,0.1,4.1,6,0,0.2,-0.1,0.6,NA
+Missouri State University Center for Social Science and Public Policy Research,212,FALSE,TRUE,NA,473,-0,3.1,3,0,0,-0.1,0.6,NA
+Momentum Analysis,214,FALSE,TRUE,NA,474,0.3,2.8,4,1,0.2,0.4,0.5,NA
+Myers Research & Strategic Services,319,FALSE,TRUE,NA,475,0.2,4.5,2,0.7,0.1,0.4,0.1,NA
+National Journal,224,TRUE,TRUE,NA,476,-0.5,7.1,12,0,-0.3,-0.6,1.7,NA
+Neighbor,226,FALSE,TRUE,NA,477,0,4.1,1,0,0.1,-0.1,0,NA
+New England College Polling Center,228,FALSE,TRUE,NA,478,-0.3,3.3,24,0,-0.5,-0.2,8.7,NA
+New Frontier Strategy,229,FALSE,TRUE,NA,479,0.2,3.3,2,0,0.3,0.1,0.6,NA
+New Mexico State University,230,FALSE,TRUE,NA,480,-0,3.2,1,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+Nielson Brothers Polling,231,FALSE,TRUE,NA,481,1.4,1.4,11,0,1.4,1.4,5,NA
+Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory,234,FALSE,TRUE,NA,482,-0,3.5,7,0,0,-0.1,0.7,NA
+NRECA Market Research,223,FALSE,TRUE,NA,483,-0,3.4,1,0,0.1,-0.1,0,NA
+Ohio State University,236,TRUE,TRUE,NA,484,-0.4,6.9,3,0,-0.2,-0.6,0.1,NA
+Ohio University,237,FALSE,TRUE,NA,485,0.1,4.4,4,0,0.1,-0,0.3,NA
+OnPoint,240,FALSE,TRUE,NA,486,-0,3.4,6,0,0.1,-0.1,0.6,NA
+Opinion Consultants,241,FALSE,TRUE,NA,487,0,4.3,2,0,0.1,-0.1,0.2,NA
+Opinion Dynamics,104,TRUE,TRUE,NA,488,-0.4,7.3,40,0,-0.3,-0.5,4,NA
+Opinion Research Associates,242,FALSE,TRUE,NA,489,0.9,4.1,16,0.6,0.8,1,2.2,NA
+Polling Company/Global Strategy Group,255,TRUE,TRUE,NA,490,-0.4,7,5,0,-0.2,-0.6,0.2,NA
+Potomac Incorporated,256,FALSE,TRUE,NA,491,0,3.6,8,0,0.1,-0.1,0.5,NA
+Princeton Survey Research Associates International,258,TRUE,TRUE,NA,492,-0.4,7,44,0,-0.1,-0.7,5.2,NA
+PSI,248,FALSE,TRUE,NA,493,-0,3.9,2,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+Public Policy Polling/Harper Polling,647,FALSE,TRUE,NA,494,-0,3.5,1,0,0.1,-0.1,0.3,NA
+Public Strategies Inc.,264,FALSE,TRUE,NA,495,-0,3.9,6,0,0.1,-0.1,0.8,NA
+Quest Research Group,285,FALSE,TRUE,NA,496,0.1,3.5,8,0,0.2,-0,1.4,NA
+Rainmaker Media Group,276,FALSE,TRUE,NA,497,0,3.2,1,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+Richard Day Research,287,FALSE,TRUE,NA,498,-0,3.4,13,0,0.1,-0.1,0.8,NA
+Richmond Times-Dispatch,288,FALSE,TRUE,NA,499,-0,3.7,4,0,0.1,-0.1,0.2,NA
+Riggs Research Services,289,FALSE,TRUE,NA,500,0.4,3.9,1,1,0.3,0.6,0.1,NA
+Rivercity Polling,291,FALSE,TRUE,NA,501,0.2,2.3,1,1,0.1,0.4,0.1,NA
+RMS Research,273,FALSE,TRUE,NA,502,0,3,3,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+Rossman Group,294,FALSE,TRUE,NA,503,0.1,3.6,2,0,0.2,-0.1,0.4,NA
+RT Strategies,275,FALSE,TRUE,NA,504,-0.3,2.9,84,0,-0,-0.5,9.3,NA
+Schapiro Group,300,FALSE,TRUE,NA,505,0,4.2,2,0,0.1,-0.1,0.3,NA
+Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports),776,FALSE,TRUE,NA,506,-0.3,3.5,792,0,-0,-0.5,132.5,NA
+Scripps Howard,303,FALSE,TRUE,NA,507,-0,4.2,6,0,0.1,-0.1,0.3,NA
+Southeastern Louisiana University Social Science Research Center,309,FALSE,TRUE,NA,508,0.1,3.8,6,0,0.2,-0.1,0.5,NA
+Southern Opinion Research,311,FALSE,TRUE,NA,509,-0,3.7,2,0,0.1,-0.1,0,NA
+TeleResearch Corporation,335,FALSE,TRUE,NA,510,-0,4.6,1,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+The Florida Poll,99,FALSE,TRUE,NA,511,-0,4.1,5,0,0.1,-0.1,0.4,NA
+TMR Research,328,FALSE,TRUE,NA,512,-0,3.4,2,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+Tulsa Surveys,341,FALSE,TRUE,NA,513,0,4,1,0,0.1,-0.1,0,NA
+University of Alabama at Birmingham,344,FALSE,TRUE,NA,514,0,4.1,3,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+University of Colorado Boulder American Politics Research Lab,580,FALSE,TRUE,NA,515,0.2,6.3,2,0,0.3,0.1,1.1,NA
+University of Connecticut,347,TRUE,TRUE,NA,516,-0.6,6.6,19,0,-0.4,-0.7,2.1,NA
+University of Illinois at Chicago,352,FALSE,TRUE,NA,517,-0,3.9,1,0,0.1,-0.1,0,NA
+University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science,354,FALSE,TRUE,NA,518,-0,4,10,0,0.1,-0.1,0.4,NA
+University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs,143,FALSE,TRUE,NA,519,0.1,4.1,12,0,0.3,-0,1.6,NA
+University of North Carolina School of Journalism and Mass Communication,359,FALSE,TRUE,NA,520,0,3.1,1,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+University of Washington Center for Survey Research,364,FALSE,TRUE,NA,521,-0,4.2,13,0,0.1,-0.1,2.7,NA
+University of Wisconsin Survey Center,365,TRUE,TRUE,NA,522,-0.3,6.8,9,0,-0.1,-0.5,0.8,NA
+University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Urban Initiatives and Research,749,FALSE,TRUE,NA,523,-0,4.3,1,0,0.1,-0.1,0,NA
+University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Institute for Survey and Policy Research,366,FALSE,TRUE,NA,524,-0,3.4,3,0,0,-0.1,0.2,NA
+Valley Research,368,FALSE,TRUE,NA,525,-0,3.2,8,0,0.1,-0.1,0.5,NA
+Voter/Consumer Research,371,FALSE,TRUE,NA,526,0.4,3.5,12,0.9,0.3,0.6,2,NA
+War Room Logistics,374,FALSE,TRUE,NA,527,0.1,3.8,1,0,0.2,0.1,0.2,NA
+WCIA-TV,373,FALSE,TRUE,NA,528,0,4.1,2,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+West Chester University,377,FALSE,TRUE,NA,529,0,3.9,14,0,0.2,-0.1,1.3,NA
+West Virginia Research Center,378,FALSE,TRUE,NA,530,-0,3.2,2,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+Wick Communications,381,FALSE,TRUE,NA,531,0.2,1.7,1,1,0.1,0.4,0.1,NA
+Wirthlin Worldwide,387,TRUE,TRUE,NA,532,-0.1,7.2,7,0.2,-0.1,0,0.2,NA
+Wood Communications Group,388,FALSE,TRUE,NA,533,-0,3.8,1,0,0.1,-0.1,0.1,NA
+Yankelovich Partners Inc.,390,TRUE,TRUE,NA,534,-0.4,7.2,8,0,-0.2,-0.6,0.3,NA
+Zata3,392,FALSE,TRUE,NA,535,0.2,2,1,1,0.1,0.4,0.1,NA
+Zimmerman & Associates/Marketing Intelligence,394,FALSE,TRUE,NA,536,-0,3.3,3,0,0.1,-0.1,0.3,NA