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2020 forecast data update (#43)

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* add scenario analysis and economic_index data to 2020 forecasts
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Dhrumil Mehta
2020-08-17 09:35:43 -05:00
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election-forecasts-2020/README.md
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@@ -3,6 +3,8 @@ files:
- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_national_toplines_2020.csv
- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_state_toplines_2020.csv
- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_ev_probabilities_2020.csv
- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_scenario_analysis_2020.csv
- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/economic_index.csv
---
# election-forecasts-2020
@@ -70,3 +72,23 @@ Column | Description
`evprob_chal` | Chance that the challenger wins `total_ev` electoral votes
`evprob_3rd` | Chance that the third-party candidate wins `total_ev` electoral votes
`total_ev` | Number of electoral votes in question
`presidential_scenario_analysis_2020.csv` contains the forecasted chances of various possible election outcome scenarios. This sheet contains the following additional columns:
Column | Description
-------|------------
`scenario_id` | A unique identifier for each scenario
`probability` | The forecasted chance that the scenario will happen
`scenario_description` | A description of the scenario in question
`economic_index.csv` contains economic indicators that serve as inputs to the forecast. For more information on these indicators, see [this post](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/measuring-the-effect-of-the-economy-on-elections/). The economic indexes were collected from the [Federal Reserve Bank Of St. Louis]( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96) and the stock prices data from [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/). This sheet contains the following additional columns:
Column | Description
-------|------------
`indicator` | Name of the economic indicator
`category` | What that indicator helps measure
`current_zscore` | Number of standard deviations from the previous 2-year average for the current value of the indicator
`projected_zscore` | Number of standard deviations from the previous 2-year average for the projected value of the indicator on Election Day
`projected_hi` | Upper bound of an 80% confidence interval for `projected_zscore`
`projected_lo` | Lower bound of an 80% confidence interval for `projected_zscore`