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Update WWC forecast

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Jay Boice
2015-06-15 21:35:43 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150615-213540.csv Normal file
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team,group,wspi,wspi_offense,wspi_defense,group_first,group_second,group_third_advance,group_third_no_advance,group_fourth,sixteen,quarter,semi,final,win
Germany,B,95.70278239,3.75700988,0.38744414,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.82730,0.69290,0.43975,0.31675
USA,D,95.27199220,3.60761198,0.41685075,0.84315,0.13680,0.02000,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.84570,0.73695,0.42620,0.29470
Japan,C,92.49655981,2.83066067,0.55509327,0.99725,0.00275,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.79315,0.39835,0.23585,0.08800
Canada,A,89.48663963,2.20450402,0.67258603,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.80700,0.46265,0.21620,0.07175
Brazil,E,92.20151735,2.74667404,0.55153209,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.54480,0.29800,0.17155,0.06185
France,F,91.86229527,2.75994623,0.66423541,0.27455,0.48300,0.13235,0.00010,0.11000,0.88990,0.56705,0.28110,0.12995,0.05180
Sweden,D,91.46095872,2.68585304,0.69547583,0.07825,0.38570,0.20645,0.26820,0.06140,0.67040,0.29110,0.17615,0.08635,0.03270
Norway,B,89.03152686,2.21884910,0.79456345,0.00000,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.52585,0.24475,0.08945,0.02420
England,F,89.22663883,2.20680924,0.73620412,0.51230,0.16970,0.30795,0.00850,0.00155,0.98995,0.51740,0.17185,0.05940,0.02260
Australia,D,89.22646948,2.41648156,0.96580428,0.07460,0.46030,0.38205,0.04290,0.04015,0.91695,0.29245,0.14600,0.06040,0.01745
Netherlands,A,86.25827639,1.85865642,0.98939868,0.00000,0.00000,0.99995,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.21970,0.07085,0.02495,0.00500
China,A,85.26258762,1.49017684,0.77733582,0.00000,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.55220,0.09750,0.01760,0.00460
Switzerland,C,84.18604549,1.96127015,1.49076970,0.00145,0.69435,0.30375,0.00045,0.00000,0.99955,0.40225,0.08110,0.01535,0.00290
Spain,E,83.91743339,1.48399124,1.01584968,0.00000,0.54840,0.01285,0.07850,0.36025,0.56125,0.19525,0.02735,0.00695,0.00215
Cameroon,C,80.92182581,1.28530933,1.30124503,0.00130,0.30290,0.69470,0.00110,0.00000,0.99890,0.23710,0.04570,0.00760,0.00105
South Korea,E,83.30212814,1.67748517,1.33473725,0.00000,0.34730,0.01295,0.12775,0.51200,0.36025,0.11980,0.01605,0.00345,0.00090
Colombia,F,80.01802084,1.04392551,1.18176089,0.21315,0.26760,0.51920,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.19460,0.03630,0.00545,0.00085
Nigeria,D,86.03082982,1.77523450,0.94273050,0.00400,0.01720,0.06585,0.01450,0.89845,0.08705,0.01770,0.00715,0.00230,0.00065
Mexico,F,81.28085190,1.54354700,1.52556614,0.00000,0.07970,0.03185,0.00000,0.88845,0.11155,0.02605,0.00770,0.00120,0.00010
Costa Rica,E,74.46848601,0.98090239,1.95309483,0.00000,0.10430,0.07040,0.69755,0.12775,0.17470,0.01990,0.00150,0.00005,0.00000
Thailand,B,68.33349734,0.89889336,2.71014832,0.00000,0.00000,0.23970,0.76030,0.00000,0.23970,0.00365,0.00010,0.00000,0.00000
Ecuador,C,55.74307688,0.50004650,3.86426127,0.00000,0.00000,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.00005,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
Ivory Coast,B,71.83844380,1.37944188,2.76162647,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
New Zealand,A,82.79811430,1.47447794,1.19842544,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
1 team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
2 Germany B 95.70278239 3.75700988 0.38744414 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.82730 0.69290 0.43975 0.31675
3 USA D 95.27199220 3.60761198 0.41685075 0.84315 0.13680 0.02000 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.84570 0.73695 0.42620 0.29470
4 Japan C 92.49655981 2.83066067 0.55509327 0.99725 0.00275 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.79315 0.39835 0.23585 0.08800
5 Canada A 89.48663963 2.20450402 0.67258603 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.80700 0.46265 0.21620 0.07175
6 Brazil E 92.20151735 2.74667404 0.55153209 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.54480 0.29800 0.17155 0.06185
7 France F 91.86229527 2.75994623 0.66423541 0.27455 0.48300 0.13235 0.00010 0.11000 0.88990 0.56705 0.28110 0.12995 0.05180
8 Sweden D 91.46095872 2.68585304 0.69547583 0.07825 0.38570 0.20645 0.26820 0.06140 0.67040 0.29110 0.17615 0.08635 0.03270
9 Norway B 89.03152686 2.21884910 0.79456345 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.52585 0.24475 0.08945 0.02420
10 England F 89.22663883 2.20680924 0.73620412 0.51230 0.16970 0.30795 0.00850 0.00155 0.98995 0.51740 0.17185 0.05940 0.02260
11 Australia D 89.22646948 2.41648156 0.96580428 0.07460 0.46030 0.38205 0.04290 0.04015 0.91695 0.29245 0.14600 0.06040 0.01745
12 Netherlands A 86.25827639 1.85865642 0.98939868 0.00000 0.00000 0.99995 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.21970 0.07085 0.02495 0.00500
13 China A 85.26258762 1.49017684 0.77733582 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.55220 0.09750 0.01760 0.00460
14 Switzerland C 84.18604549 1.96127015 1.49076970 0.00145 0.69435 0.30375 0.00045 0.00000 0.99955 0.40225 0.08110 0.01535 0.00290
15 Spain E 83.91743339 1.48399124 1.01584968 0.00000 0.54840 0.01285 0.07850 0.36025 0.56125 0.19525 0.02735 0.00695 0.00215
16 Cameroon C 80.92182581 1.28530933 1.30124503 0.00130 0.30290 0.69470 0.00110 0.00000 0.99890 0.23710 0.04570 0.00760 0.00105
17 South Korea E 83.30212814 1.67748517 1.33473725 0.00000 0.34730 0.01295 0.12775 0.51200 0.36025 0.11980 0.01605 0.00345 0.00090
18 Colombia F 80.01802084 1.04392551 1.18176089 0.21315 0.26760 0.51920 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.19460 0.03630 0.00545 0.00085
19 Nigeria D 86.03082982 1.77523450 0.94273050 0.00400 0.01720 0.06585 0.01450 0.89845 0.08705 0.01770 0.00715 0.00230 0.00065
20 Mexico F 81.28085190 1.54354700 1.52556614 0.00000 0.07970 0.03185 0.00000 0.88845 0.11155 0.02605 0.00770 0.00120 0.00010
21 Costa Rica E 74.46848601 0.98090239 1.95309483 0.00000 0.10430 0.07040 0.69755 0.12775 0.17470 0.01990 0.00150 0.00005 0.00000
22 Thailand B 68.33349734 0.89889336 2.71014832 0.00000 0.00000 0.23970 0.76030 0.00000 0.23970 0.00365 0.00010 0.00000 0.00000
23 Ecuador C 55.74307688 0.50004650 3.86426127 0.00000 0.00000 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.00005 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
24 Ivory Coast B 71.83844380 1.37944188 2.76162647 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
25 New Zealand A 82.79811430 1.47447794 1.19842544 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000

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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150615-213540.csv Normal file
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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,F,France,England,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00358912,0.95657317,0.03983772
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.46163431,0.29928596,0.23907973
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.08412508,0.75551419,0.16036073
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.29726383,0.46389746,0.23883871
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.11167630,0.70935883,0.17896487
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.64072126,0.15700433,0.20227441
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.03484835,0.85209621,0.11305544
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.36243850,0.39416666,0.24339484
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
10 2015-06-09 F France England 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00358912 0.95657317 0.03983772
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.46163431 0.29928596 0.23907973
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08412508 0.75551419 0.16036073
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.29726383 0.46389746 0.23883871
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.11167630 0.70935883 0.17896487
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.64072126 0.15700433 0.20227441
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.03484835 0.85209621 0.11305544
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.36243850 0.39416666 0.24339484