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Update WWC forecast

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Jay Boice
2015-06-13 14:56:42 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150613-145639.csv Normal file
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team,group,wspi,wspi_offense,wspi_defense,group_first,group_second,group_third_advance,group_third_no_advance,group_fourth,sixteen,quarter,semi,final,win
Germany,B,95.76021816,3.79446062,0.39688396,0.96075,0.03600,0.00320,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.82180,0.67850,0.43140,0.30695
USA,D,95.26726609,3.61081620,0.41777604,0.84440,0.13630,0.01925,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.85900,0.73910,0.43320,0.29165
Japan,C,92.47309045,2.82827471,0.55818392,0.99755,0.00245,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.77545,0.39920,0.24075,0.09420
Canada,A,89.70970076,2.24329599,0.66181678,0.68985,0.12140,0.18860,0.00015,0.00000,0.99985,0.72470,0.39680,0.18890,0.06865
Brazil,E,92.31345033,2.80014491,0.57562609,0.90520,0.08350,0.00830,0.00015,0.00285,0.99700,0.55050,0.28965,0.17280,0.06770
France,F,91.86729387,2.76247785,0.66458846,0.36210,0.39735,0.14725,0.00390,0.08940,0.90670,0.57675,0.28010,0.13080,0.05595
Sweden,D,91.46936770,2.68697042,0.69353539,0.07725,0.38425,0.20345,0.27385,0.06120,0.66495,0.30580,0.17690,0.08520,0.03175
Norway,B,89.11706299,2.22494801,0.78141637,0.03845,0.96120,0.00030,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.56700,0.28935,0.10655,0.02635
Australia,D,89.22609092,2.41821152,0.96767388,0.07450,0.46325,0.32075,0.10275,0.03875,0.85850,0.29325,0.14235,0.05740,0.01755
England,F,89.29457691,2.21036459,0.72411358,0.36405,0.15700,0.23370,0.03020,0.21505,0.75475,0.39020,0.13805,0.04975,0.01675
Netherlands,A,86.02994986,1.83648775,1.01050880,0.15450,0.10640,0.51990,0.11660,0.10260,0.78080,0.26695,0.08520,0.02490,0.00550
China,A,85.30912632,1.45179638,0.72723413,0.15565,0.50920,0.12060,0.01940,0.19515,0.78545,0.40390,0.09535,0.02165,0.00535
Switzerland,C,84.18619259,1.96144034,1.49172174,0.00135,0.70100,0.29500,0.00265,0.00000,0.99735,0.40375,0.07880,0.01550,0.00390
Spain,E,84.12624032,1.56584240,1.06933062,0.06715,0.36975,0.09385,0.27660,0.19265,0.53075,0.16950,0.03410,0.00935,0.00270
South Korea,E,83.87979747,1.67876376,1.23653162,0.01830,0.41785,0.20460,0.13045,0.22880,0.64075,0.18100,0.03605,0.00720,0.00160
Cameroon,C,80.91638172,1.28452202,1.30237876,0.00110,0.29655,0.69845,0.00390,0.00000,0.99610,0.25925,0.05465,0.00880,0.00115
Colombia,F,80.01228100,1.04297384,1.18281171,0.21730,0.36785,0.41475,0.00010,0.00000,0.99990,0.20625,0.04100,0.00660,0.00080
New Zealand,A,82.42609354,1.37139952,1.14894380,0.00000,0.26300,0.03470,0.00005,0.70225,0.29770,0.13565,0.01930,0.00385,0.00060
Mexico,F,81.11838861,1.52080195,1.52826689,0.05655,0.07780,0.14160,0.02850,0.69555,0.27595,0.06410,0.01570,0.00285,0.00050
Nigeria,D,86.04352260,1.77919089,0.94512619,0.00380,0.01620,0.06480,0.01515,0.90005,0.08480,0.01635,0.00720,0.00225,0.00040
Costa Rica,E,73.71020720,0.87277778,1.94508743,0.00935,0.12890,0.08325,0.20280,0.57570,0.22150,0.02545,0.00235,0.00030,0.00000
Thailand,B,68.18050129,0.92129428,2.75668557,0.00070,0.00280,0.20350,0.79145,0.00155,0.20700,0.00340,0.00030,0.00000,0.00000
Ivory Coast,B,71.29483430,1.32776579,2.78169327,0.00000,0.00000,0.00020,0.00135,0.99845,0.00020,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
Ecuador,C,55.75637703,0.49949739,3.86338039,0.00000,0.00000,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.00005,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
1 team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
2 Germany B 95.76021816 3.79446062 0.39688396 0.96075 0.03600 0.00320 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.82180 0.67850 0.43140 0.30695
3 USA D 95.26726609 3.61081620 0.41777604 0.84440 0.13630 0.01925 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.85900 0.73910 0.43320 0.29165
4 Japan C 92.47309045 2.82827471 0.55818392 0.99755 0.00245 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.77545 0.39920 0.24075 0.09420
5 Canada A 89.70970076 2.24329599 0.66181678 0.68985 0.12140 0.18860 0.00015 0.00000 0.99985 0.72470 0.39680 0.18890 0.06865
6 Brazil E 92.31345033 2.80014491 0.57562609 0.90520 0.08350 0.00830 0.00015 0.00285 0.99700 0.55050 0.28965 0.17280 0.06770
7 France F 91.86729387 2.76247785 0.66458846 0.36210 0.39735 0.14725 0.00390 0.08940 0.90670 0.57675 0.28010 0.13080 0.05595
8 Sweden D 91.46936770 2.68697042 0.69353539 0.07725 0.38425 0.20345 0.27385 0.06120 0.66495 0.30580 0.17690 0.08520 0.03175
9 Norway B 89.11706299 2.22494801 0.78141637 0.03845 0.96120 0.00030 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.56700 0.28935 0.10655 0.02635
10 Australia D 89.22609092 2.41821152 0.96767388 0.07450 0.46325 0.32075 0.10275 0.03875 0.85850 0.29325 0.14235 0.05740 0.01755
11 England F 89.29457691 2.21036459 0.72411358 0.36405 0.15700 0.23370 0.03020 0.21505 0.75475 0.39020 0.13805 0.04975 0.01675
12 Netherlands A 86.02994986 1.83648775 1.01050880 0.15450 0.10640 0.51990 0.11660 0.10260 0.78080 0.26695 0.08520 0.02490 0.00550
13 China A 85.30912632 1.45179638 0.72723413 0.15565 0.50920 0.12060 0.01940 0.19515 0.78545 0.40390 0.09535 0.02165 0.00535
14 Switzerland C 84.18619259 1.96144034 1.49172174 0.00135 0.70100 0.29500 0.00265 0.00000 0.99735 0.40375 0.07880 0.01550 0.00390
15 Spain E 84.12624032 1.56584240 1.06933062 0.06715 0.36975 0.09385 0.27660 0.19265 0.53075 0.16950 0.03410 0.00935 0.00270
16 South Korea E 83.87979747 1.67876376 1.23653162 0.01830 0.41785 0.20460 0.13045 0.22880 0.64075 0.18100 0.03605 0.00720 0.00160
17 Cameroon C 80.91638172 1.28452202 1.30237876 0.00110 0.29655 0.69845 0.00390 0.00000 0.99610 0.25925 0.05465 0.00880 0.00115
18 Colombia F 80.01228100 1.04297384 1.18281171 0.21730 0.36785 0.41475 0.00010 0.00000 0.99990 0.20625 0.04100 0.00660 0.00080
19 New Zealand A 82.42609354 1.37139952 1.14894380 0.00000 0.26300 0.03470 0.00005 0.70225 0.29770 0.13565 0.01930 0.00385 0.00060
20 Mexico F 81.11838861 1.52080195 1.52826689 0.05655 0.07780 0.14160 0.02850 0.69555 0.27595 0.06410 0.01570 0.00285 0.00050
21 Nigeria D 86.04352260 1.77919089 0.94512619 0.00380 0.01620 0.06480 0.01515 0.90005 0.08480 0.01635 0.00720 0.00225 0.00040
22 Costa Rica E 73.71020720 0.87277778 1.94508743 0.00935 0.12890 0.08325 0.20280 0.57570 0.22150 0.02545 0.00235 0.00030 0.00000
23 Thailand B 68.18050129 0.92129428 2.75668557 0.00070 0.00280 0.20350 0.79145 0.00155 0.20700 0.00340 0.00030 0.00000 0.00000
24 Ivory Coast B 71.29483430 1.32776579 2.78169327 0.00000 0.00000 0.00020 0.00135 0.99845 0.00020 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
25 Ecuador C 55.75637703 0.49949739 3.86338039 0.00000 0.00000 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.00005 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000

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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150613-145639.csv Normal file
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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,F,France,England,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,0.65938878,0.14417180,0.19643942
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,0.61681086,0.17398608,0.20920306
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.62161091,0.17052793,0.20786117
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00400582,0.95174061,0.04425357
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.05376200,0.81214209,0.13409591
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.20888011,0.57016064,0.22095925
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.45535485,0.30492847,0.23971668
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00359574,0.95649615,0.03990811
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.46182367,0.29911653,0.23905979
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.08407639,0.75559956,0.16032405
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.29683253,0.46438104,0.23878643
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.10907205,0.71355521,0.17737274
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.64340696,0.15513509,0.20145795
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.02824795,0.86732408,0.10442797
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.37177313,0.38468967,0.24353720
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
10 2015-06-09 F France England 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.65938878 0.14417180 0.19643942
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.61681086 0.17398608 0.20920306
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.62161091 0.17052793 0.20786117
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00400582 0.95174061 0.04425357
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.05376200 0.81214209 0.13409591
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20888011 0.57016064 0.22095925
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45535485 0.30492847 0.23971668
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00359574 0.95649615 0.03990811
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.46182367 0.29911653 0.23905979
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08407639 0.75559956 0.16032405
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.29683253 0.46438104 0.23878643
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.10907205 0.71355521 0.17737274
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.64340696 0.15513509 0.20145795
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02824795 0.86732408 0.10442797
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.37177313 0.38468967 0.24353720