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Update WWC forecast

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Jay Boice
2015-06-12 20:55:28 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150612-205525.csv Normal file
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team,group,wspi,wspi_offense,wspi_defense,group_first,group_second,group_third_advance,group_third_no_advance,group_fourth,sixteen,quarter,semi,final,win
USA,D,95.45258729,3.70670664,0.43661394,0.83120,0.14365,0.01500,0.00025,0.00990,0.98985,0.88025,0.75275,0.44685,0.31220
Germany,B,95.74933425,3.79385302,0.39593267,0.95900,0.03695,0.00400,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.82000,0.61190,0.37760,0.27175
Japan,C,92.58618730,2.83997609,0.53550587,0.86360,0.10085,0.03550,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.77695,0.39465,0.23615,0.09095
Brazil,E,92.29951461,2.79851577,0.57728392,0.89850,0.08960,0.00980,0.00015,0.00195,0.99790,0.53345,0.29640,0.17885,0.06695
France,F,92.46626518,2.85230995,0.58571044,0.89625,0.08355,0.01395,0.00035,0.00590,0.99375,0.76050,0.29395,0.13005,0.06625
Canada,A,89.71423000,2.24317949,0.66146145,0.68945,0.12460,0.18590,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.72510,0.39650,0.18640,0.06505
Sweden,D,91.63559023,2.75974428,0.72676405,0.12580,0.39885,0.14035,0.22590,0.10910,0.66500,0.34490,0.20835,0.10420,0.04090
Norway,B,89.13804380,2.22887301,0.78195420,0.04020,0.95950,0.00025,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.54075,0.27370,0.10485,0.02640
England,F,89.31446506,2.21101600,0.72119016,0.05950,0.62520,0.18555,0.02805,0.10170,0.87025,0.41090,0.20210,0.07590,0.02065
Australia,D,89.24755427,2.41965105,0.96530941,0.04195,0.43645,0.44390,0.04320,0.03450,0.92230,0.29705,0.13865,0.05915,0.01870
Netherlands,A,86.04379842,1.83680314,1.01017759,0.15005,0.10480,0.60015,0.04005,0.10495,0.85500,0.30105,0.09495,0.02920,0.00625
China,A,85.32763332,1.45250263,0.72668872,0.16050,0.50095,0.13280,0.00725,0.19850,0.79425,0.39540,0.09105,0.01945,0.00415
Switzerland,C,84.20604951,1.96055439,1.48994284,0.04245,0.61400,0.34285,0.00070,0.00000,0.99930,0.40075,0.07990,0.01735,0.00335
Spain,E,84.13540785,1.56336958,1.06773886,0.07390,0.35895,0.11570,0.25755,0.19390,0.54855,0.12285,0.02885,0.00770,0.00170
South Korea,E,83.89662686,1.67874704,1.23633693,0.01810,0.42005,0.27520,0.06065,0.22600,0.71335,0.13340,0.02970,0.00565,0.00155
Cameroon,C,80.40516800,1.21596261,1.31293477,0.09390,0.28515,0.61855,0.00240,0.00000,0.99760,0.27280,0.05185,0.00930,0.00095
Nigeria,D,86.02023110,1.77123940,0.94300306,0.00105,0.02105,0.06150,0.06990,0.84650,0.08360,0.01615,0.00630,0.00235,0.00080
New Zealand,A,82.46137284,1.37130291,1.14593139,0.00000,0.26965,0.03380,0.00000,0.69655,0.30345,0.13080,0.01660,0.00270,0.00065
Mexico,F,81.00151371,1.51370976,1.54272389,0.02790,0.17205,0.09800,0.32395,0.37810,0.29795,0.07120,0.02075,0.00455,0.00060
Colombia,F,78.09182807,0.85181403,1.27586629,0.01635,0.11920,0.07600,0.27415,0.51430,0.21155,0.03835,0.00890,0.00165,0.00020
Costa Rica,E,73.74211141,0.87175706,1.94324525,0.00950,0.13140,0.09415,0.18680,0.57815,0.23505,0.01375,0.00120,0.00005,0.00000
Thailand,B,68.21170173,0.92110512,2.75637495,0.00070,0.00355,0.51600,0.47750,0.00225,0.52025,0.01350,0.00095,0.00005,0.00000
Ivory Coast,B,71.28425747,1.32768145,2.78682572,0.00000,0.00000,0.00110,0.00115,0.99775,0.00110,0.00015,0.00005,0.00000,0.00000
Ecuador,C,55.09552372,0.49286832,3.94070708,0.00000,0.00000,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.00005,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
1 team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
2 USA D 95.45258729 3.70670664 0.43661394 0.83120 0.14365 0.01500 0.00025 0.00990 0.98985 0.88025 0.75275 0.44685 0.31220
3 Germany B 95.74933425 3.79385302 0.39593267 0.95900 0.03695 0.00400 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.82000 0.61190 0.37760 0.27175
4 Japan C 92.58618730 2.83997609 0.53550587 0.86360 0.10085 0.03550 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.77695 0.39465 0.23615 0.09095
5 Brazil E 92.29951461 2.79851577 0.57728392 0.89850 0.08960 0.00980 0.00015 0.00195 0.99790 0.53345 0.29640 0.17885 0.06695
6 France F 92.46626518 2.85230995 0.58571044 0.89625 0.08355 0.01395 0.00035 0.00590 0.99375 0.76050 0.29395 0.13005 0.06625
7 Canada A 89.71423000 2.24317949 0.66146145 0.68945 0.12460 0.18590 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.72510 0.39650 0.18640 0.06505
8 Sweden D 91.63559023 2.75974428 0.72676405 0.12580 0.39885 0.14035 0.22590 0.10910 0.66500 0.34490 0.20835 0.10420 0.04090
9 Norway B 89.13804380 2.22887301 0.78195420 0.04020 0.95950 0.00025 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.54075 0.27370 0.10485 0.02640
10 England F 89.31446506 2.21101600 0.72119016 0.05950 0.62520 0.18555 0.02805 0.10170 0.87025 0.41090 0.20210 0.07590 0.02065
11 Australia D 89.24755427 2.41965105 0.96530941 0.04195 0.43645 0.44390 0.04320 0.03450 0.92230 0.29705 0.13865 0.05915 0.01870
12 Netherlands A 86.04379842 1.83680314 1.01017759 0.15005 0.10480 0.60015 0.04005 0.10495 0.85500 0.30105 0.09495 0.02920 0.00625
13 China A 85.32763332 1.45250263 0.72668872 0.16050 0.50095 0.13280 0.00725 0.19850 0.79425 0.39540 0.09105 0.01945 0.00415
14 Switzerland C 84.20604951 1.96055439 1.48994284 0.04245 0.61400 0.34285 0.00070 0.00000 0.99930 0.40075 0.07990 0.01735 0.00335
15 Spain E 84.13540785 1.56336958 1.06773886 0.07390 0.35895 0.11570 0.25755 0.19390 0.54855 0.12285 0.02885 0.00770 0.00170
16 South Korea E 83.89662686 1.67874704 1.23633693 0.01810 0.42005 0.27520 0.06065 0.22600 0.71335 0.13340 0.02970 0.00565 0.00155
17 Cameroon C 80.40516800 1.21596261 1.31293477 0.09390 0.28515 0.61855 0.00240 0.00000 0.99760 0.27280 0.05185 0.00930 0.00095
18 Nigeria D 86.02023110 1.77123940 0.94300306 0.00105 0.02105 0.06150 0.06990 0.84650 0.08360 0.01615 0.00630 0.00235 0.00080
19 New Zealand A 82.46137284 1.37130291 1.14593139 0.00000 0.26965 0.03380 0.00000 0.69655 0.30345 0.13080 0.01660 0.00270 0.00065
20 Mexico F 81.00151371 1.51370976 1.54272389 0.02790 0.17205 0.09800 0.32395 0.37810 0.29795 0.07120 0.02075 0.00455 0.00060
21 Colombia F 78.09182807 0.85181403 1.27586629 0.01635 0.11920 0.07600 0.27415 0.51430 0.21155 0.03835 0.00890 0.00165 0.00020
22 Costa Rica E 73.74211141 0.87175706 1.94324525 0.00950 0.13140 0.09415 0.18680 0.57815 0.23505 0.01375 0.00120 0.00005 0.00000
23 Thailand B 68.21170173 0.92110512 2.75637495 0.00070 0.00355 0.51600 0.47750 0.00225 0.52025 0.01350 0.00095 0.00005 0.00000
24 Ivory Coast B 71.28425747 1.32768145 2.78682572 0.00000 0.00000 0.00110 0.00115 0.99775 0.00110 0.00015 0.00005 0.00000 0.00000
25 Ecuador C 55.09552372 0.49286832 3.94070708 0.00000 0.00000 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.00005 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000

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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150612-205525.csv Normal file
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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,F,France,England,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.58151136,0.20017474,0.21831390
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,0.75859810,0.08237145,0.15903046
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.79981991,0.06002909,0.14015100
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,0.65904740,0.14440312,0.19654949
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,0.62070655,0.17117758,0.20811587
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.62152843,0.17058714,0.20788443
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00400559,0.95174323,0.04425117
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.05322790,0.81321049,0.13356161
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.20893341,0.57009170,0.22097490
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.45511079,0.30514872,0.23974049
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00346516,0.95801497,0.03851987
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.47514897,0.28729989,0.23755114
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.07724859,0.76772264,0.15502878
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.29101529,0.47093386,0.23805086
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.09257954,0.74091079,0.16650966
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.68806353,0.12519172,0.18674475
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.02842855,0.86689609,0.10467536
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.37196381,0.38449734,0.24353885
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
10 2015-06-09 F France England 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.58151136 0.20017474 0.21831390
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.75859810 0.08237145 0.15903046
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.79981991 0.06002909 0.14015100
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.65904740 0.14440312 0.19654949
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62070655 0.17117758 0.20811587
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.62152843 0.17058714 0.20788443
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00400559 0.95174323 0.04425117
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.05322790 0.81321049 0.13356161
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20893341 0.57009170 0.22097490
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45511079 0.30514872 0.23974049
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00346516 0.95801497 0.03851987
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.47514897 0.28729989 0.23755114
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.07724859 0.76772264 0.15502878
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.29101529 0.47093386 0.23805086
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09257954 0.74091079 0.16650966
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.68806353 0.12519172 0.18674475
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02842855 0.86689609 0.10467536
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.37196381 0.38449734 0.24353885