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Update WWC forecast

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Jay Boice
2015-06-13 17:55:55 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150613-175552.csv Normal file
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team,group,wspi,wspi_offense,wspi_defense,group_first,group_second,group_third_advance,group_third_no_advance,group_fourth,sixteen,quarter,semi,final,win
Germany,B,95.76768045,3.79610826,0.39699025,0.95765,0.03815,0.00415,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.82130,0.68445,0.43130,0.30950
USA,D,95.27276268,3.61136608,0.41772521,0.84315,0.13580,0.02100,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.85725,0.73290,0.43015,0.29480
Japan,C,92.47736082,2.82824029,0.55817337,0.99670,0.00330,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.77805,0.40185,0.23605,0.08880
Canada,A,89.71430982,2.24326631,0.66172441,0.69000,0.12575,0.18410,0.00015,0.00000,0.99985,0.72835,0.39595,0.18890,0.06835
Brazil,E,92.23099686,2.75425694,0.55112544,0.99060,0.00940,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.54280,0.28715,0.17075,0.06485
France,F,91.87000347,2.76208456,0.66463449,0.26995,0.48180,0.13485,0.00060,0.11280,0.88660,0.55025,0.28660,0.13780,0.05705
Sweden,D,91.47351815,2.68701277,0.69364792,0.07955,0.39650,0.20140,0.26305,0.05950,0.67745,0.30350,0.17640,0.08410,0.03180
Norway,B,89.12227886,2.22534161,0.78164177,0.04145,0.95815,0.00035,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.53000,0.27415,0.10340,0.02605
England,F,89.24783789,2.20987408,0.73551821,0.51205,0.16925,0.30045,0.01620,0.00205,0.98175,0.51630,0.17450,0.06060,0.02005
Australia,D,89.23149626,2.41850379,0.96774469,0.07335,0.44990,0.35095,0.08420,0.04160,0.87420,0.28720,0.14425,0.05705,0.01875
Netherlands,A,86.03342262,1.83639022,1.01052005,0.15300,0.10330,0.54130,0.09665,0.10575,0.79760,0.27635,0.08850,0.02695,0.00550
China,A,85.31386994,1.45200013,0.72731780,0.15700,0.49945,0.12780,0.01395,0.20180,0.78425,0.39710,0.08815,0.02145,0.00525
Switzerland,C,84.19115186,1.96188397,1.49201498,0.00195,0.70290,0.29310,0.00205,0.00000,0.99795,0.40835,0.08490,0.01730,0.00305
South Korea,E,83.88350506,1.67980360,1.23769505,0.00300,0.46155,0.18025,0.13335,0.22185,0.64480,0.19190,0.03375,0.00725,0.00195
Cameroon,C,80.91988285,1.28452629,1.30237999,0.00135,0.29380,0.70180,0.00305,0.00000,0.99695,0.25905,0.05185,0.00935,0.00120
Spain,E,83.86502873,1.48568653,1.02840841,0.00000,0.39440,0.02495,0.37360,0.20705,0.41935,0.14710,0.02190,0.00425,0.00120
New Zealand,A,82.43301795,1.37195381,1.14900751,0.00000,0.27150,0.03605,0.00000,0.69245,0.30755,0.13610,0.02050,0.00305,0.00060
Nigeria,D,86.04752124,1.77916714,0.94511582,0.00390,0.01780,0.06480,0.01460,0.89890,0.08650,0.01765,0.00760,0.00285,0.00060
Colombia,F,80.02814071,1.04370789,1.18163869,0.21800,0.26605,0.51590,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.19740,0.03485,0.00550,0.00055
Mexico,F,81.28047897,1.54372644,1.52748592,0.00000,0.08290,0.03195,0.00000,0.88515,0.11485,0.02545,0.00800,0.00165,0.00005
Costa Rica,E,73.71261864,0.87643566,1.94910559,0.00640,0.13465,0.07700,0.21085,0.57110,0.21805,0.02490,0.00175,0.00030,0.00005
Thailand,B,68.18234521,0.92128397,2.75660255,0.00080,0.00370,0.20740,0.78615,0.00195,0.21190,0.00365,0.00005,0.00000,0.00000
Ivory Coast,B,71.29837001,1.32775537,2.78149283,0.00000,0.00000,0.00045,0.00150,0.99805,0.00045,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
Ecuador,C,55.75343506,0.49991471,3.86424921,0.00000,0.00000,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.00005,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
1 team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
2 Germany B 95.76768045 3.79610826 0.39699025 0.95765 0.03815 0.00415 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.82130 0.68445 0.43130 0.30950
3 USA D 95.27276268 3.61136608 0.41772521 0.84315 0.13580 0.02100 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.85725 0.73290 0.43015 0.29480
4 Japan C 92.47736082 2.82824029 0.55817337 0.99670 0.00330 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.77805 0.40185 0.23605 0.08880
5 Canada A 89.71430982 2.24326631 0.66172441 0.69000 0.12575 0.18410 0.00015 0.00000 0.99985 0.72835 0.39595 0.18890 0.06835
6 Brazil E 92.23099686 2.75425694 0.55112544 0.99060 0.00940 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.54280 0.28715 0.17075 0.06485
7 France F 91.87000347 2.76208456 0.66463449 0.26995 0.48180 0.13485 0.00060 0.11280 0.88660 0.55025 0.28660 0.13780 0.05705
8 Sweden D 91.47351815 2.68701277 0.69364792 0.07955 0.39650 0.20140 0.26305 0.05950 0.67745 0.30350 0.17640 0.08410 0.03180
9 Norway B 89.12227886 2.22534161 0.78164177 0.04145 0.95815 0.00035 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.53000 0.27415 0.10340 0.02605
10 England F 89.24783789 2.20987408 0.73551821 0.51205 0.16925 0.30045 0.01620 0.00205 0.98175 0.51630 0.17450 0.06060 0.02005
11 Australia D 89.23149626 2.41850379 0.96774469 0.07335 0.44990 0.35095 0.08420 0.04160 0.87420 0.28720 0.14425 0.05705 0.01875
12 Netherlands A 86.03342262 1.83639022 1.01052005 0.15300 0.10330 0.54130 0.09665 0.10575 0.79760 0.27635 0.08850 0.02695 0.00550
13 China A 85.31386994 1.45200013 0.72731780 0.15700 0.49945 0.12780 0.01395 0.20180 0.78425 0.39710 0.08815 0.02145 0.00525
14 Switzerland C 84.19115186 1.96188397 1.49201498 0.00195 0.70290 0.29310 0.00205 0.00000 0.99795 0.40835 0.08490 0.01730 0.00305
15 South Korea E 83.88350506 1.67980360 1.23769505 0.00300 0.46155 0.18025 0.13335 0.22185 0.64480 0.19190 0.03375 0.00725 0.00195
16 Cameroon C 80.91988285 1.28452629 1.30237999 0.00135 0.29380 0.70180 0.00305 0.00000 0.99695 0.25905 0.05185 0.00935 0.00120
17 Spain E 83.86502873 1.48568653 1.02840841 0.00000 0.39440 0.02495 0.37360 0.20705 0.41935 0.14710 0.02190 0.00425 0.00120
18 New Zealand A 82.43301795 1.37195381 1.14900751 0.00000 0.27150 0.03605 0.00000 0.69245 0.30755 0.13610 0.02050 0.00305 0.00060
19 Nigeria D 86.04752124 1.77916714 0.94511582 0.00390 0.01780 0.06480 0.01460 0.89890 0.08650 0.01765 0.00760 0.00285 0.00060
20 Colombia F 80.02814071 1.04370789 1.18163869 0.21800 0.26605 0.51590 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.19740 0.03485 0.00550 0.00055
21 Mexico F 81.28047897 1.54372644 1.52748592 0.00000 0.08290 0.03195 0.00000 0.88515 0.11485 0.02545 0.00800 0.00165 0.00005
22 Costa Rica E 73.71261864 0.87643566 1.94910559 0.00640 0.13465 0.07700 0.21085 0.57110 0.21805 0.02490 0.00175 0.00030 0.00005
23 Thailand B 68.18234521 0.92128397 2.75660255 0.00080 0.00370 0.20740 0.78615 0.00195 0.21190 0.00365 0.00005 0.00000 0.00000
24 Ivory Coast B 71.29837001 1.32775537 2.78149283 0.00000 0.00000 0.00045 0.00150 0.99805 0.00045 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
25 Ecuador C 55.75343506 0.49991471 3.86424921 0.00000 0.00000 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.00005 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000

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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150613-175552.csv Normal file
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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,F,France,England,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.62160915,0.17052918,0.20786166
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00400380,0.95176396,0.04423224
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.05376102,0.81214405,0.13409493
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.20885898,0.57018797,0.22095305
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.45529279,0.30498446,0.23972274
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00359532,0.95650110,0.03990358
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.46185277,0.29909050,0.23905673
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.08402608,0.75568777,0.16028615
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.29687584,0.46433246,0.23879170
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.11135664,0.70987222,0.17877113
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.64133940,0.15657342,0.20208718
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.02937191,0.86467158,0.10595651
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.37869813,0.37773655,0.24356532
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
10 2015-06-09 F France England 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.62160915 0.17052918 0.20786166
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00400380 0.95176396 0.04423224
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.05376102 0.81214405 0.13409493
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20885898 0.57018797 0.22095305
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45529279 0.30498446 0.23972274
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00359532 0.95650110 0.03990358
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.46185277 0.29909050 0.23905673
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08402608 0.75568777 0.16028615
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.29687584 0.46433246 0.23879170
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.11135664 0.70987222 0.17877113
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.64133940 0.15657342 0.20208718
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02937191 0.86467158 0.10595651
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.37869813 0.37773655 0.24356532