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Update WWC forecast

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Jay Boice
2015-06-11 20:01:02 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150611-200059.csv Normal file
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team,group,wspi,wspi_offense,wspi_defense,group_first,group_second,group_third_advance,group_third_no_advance,group_fourth,sixteen,quarter,semi,final,win
USA,D,95.43229310,3.70131963,0.43740045,0.81820,0.14050,0.03365,0.00055,0.00710,0.99235,0.87330,0.74285,0.43720,0.30090
Germany,B,95.78351283,3.81262172,0.39799119,0.96060,0.03820,0.00115,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.83005,0.62180,0.39085,0.28005
Japan,C,92.55632773,2.83754998,0.53780244,0.85415,0.12485,0.02095,0.00000,0.00005,0.99995,0.78135,0.39795,0.23255,0.09035
Canada,A,90.06968716,2.34215567,0.67999669,0.80040,0.10410,0.07360,0.00060,0.02130,0.97810,0.75040,0.43285,0.21035,0.07285
Brazil,E,92.29672254,2.80168163,0.57736370,0.90130,0.08820,0.00815,0.00010,0.00225,0.99765,0.55365,0.31100,0.18120,0.07095
France,F,92.44466841,2.84955967,0.58504945,0.89760,0.08400,0.01315,0.00010,0.00515,0.99475,0.75310,0.28875,0.12735,0.06520
Sweden,D,91.66473032,2.76751020,0.72347290,0.11880,0.39640,0.17975,0.12265,0.18240,0.69495,0.35380,0.21085,0.10125,0.03890
Norway,B,89.10931144,2.22777829,0.78393265,0.03760,0.92460,0.03775,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.54430,0.25525,0.09695,0.02540
England,F,89.29824217,2.21098641,0.72146333,0.06030,0.62160,0.18530,0.02855,0.10425,0.86720,0.41515,0.19975,0.07820,0.02230
Australia,D,88.82772117,2.37914531,1.01410579,0.01985,0.25445,0.26750,0.04890,0.40930,0.54180,0.17400,0.08255,0.03370,0.01035
Netherlands,A,85.98939467,1.83137281,1.01032202,0.08330,0.18440,0.56140,0.04665,0.12425,0.82910,0.29165,0.08535,0.02560,0.00565
Nigeria,D,86.61740038,1.86250920,0.92041257,0.04315,0.20865,0.21695,0.13005,0.40120,0.46875,0.12600,0.05435,0.01950,0.00445
China,A,85.29454998,1.44993025,0.72491974,0.08295,0.56015,0.20465,0.00960,0.14265,0.84775,0.39900,0.08415,0.01850,0.00390
Spain,E,84.10182972,1.56323472,1.06774429,0.06970,0.36515,0.13620,0.24020,0.18875,0.57105,0.12575,0.02970,0.00910,0.00260
Switzerland,C,83.53711649,1.80764779,1.43446895,0.00945,0.42490,0.49140,0.05500,0.01925,0.92575,0.31550,0.06750,0.01320,0.00180
South Korea,E,83.85353091,1.67922724,1.23861017,0.01940,0.41975,0.27600,0.06270,0.22215,0.71515,0.13915,0.02995,0.00535,0.00145
Cameroon,C,80.57860685,1.24706908,1.31292096,0.13640,0.44980,0.40980,0.00385,0.00015,0.99600,0.29665,0.04890,0.00815,0.00120
New Zealand,A,82.21307114,1.40862028,1.22226246,0.03335,0.15135,0.09695,0.00655,0.71180,0.28165,0.11120,0.02165,0.00495,0.00100
Mexico,F,80.98538630,1.51460398,1.54018146,0.02655,0.17140,0.11990,0.30220,0.37995,0.31785,0.07575,0.01930,0.00390,0.00050
Colombia,F,78.09492953,0.86605325,1.28455787,0.01555,0.12300,0.09445,0.25635,0.51065,0.23300,0.04325,0.00965,0.00150,0.00015
Ivory Coast,B,72.99119181,1.34597855,2.56244608,0.00155,0.03610,0.29070,0.21265,0.45900,0.32835,0.02720,0.00420,0.00055,0.00005
Costa Rica,E,73.70037787,0.87078416,1.94151969,0.00960,0.12690,0.11275,0.16390,0.58685,0.24925,0.01515,0.00125,0.00010,0.00000
Thailand,B,67.56214244,0.87282324,2.78245234,0.00015,0.00110,0.15550,0.30225,0.54100,0.15675,0.00415,0.00045,0.00000,0.00000
Ecuador,C,59.00849209,0.43527766,3.38737714,0.00000,0.00045,0.01240,0.00660,0.98055,0.01285,0.00050,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
1 team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
2 USA D 95.43229310 3.70131963 0.43740045 0.81820 0.14050 0.03365 0.00055 0.00710 0.99235 0.87330 0.74285 0.43720 0.30090
3 Germany B 95.78351283 3.81262172 0.39799119 0.96060 0.03820 0.00115 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.83005 0.62180 0.39085 0.28005
4 Japan C 92.55632773 2.83754998 0.53780244 0.85415 0.12485 0.02095 0.00000 0.00005 0.99995 0.78135 0.39795 0.23255 0.09035
5 Canada A 90.06968716 2.34215567 0.67999669 0.80040 0.10410 0.07360 0.00060 0.02130 0.97810 0.75040 0.43285 0.21035 0.07285
6 Brazil E 92.29672254 2.80168163 0.57736370 0.90130 0.08820 0.00815 0.00010 0.00225 0.99765 0.55365 0.31100 0.18120 0.07095
7 France F 92.44466841 2.84955967 0.58504945 0.89760 0.08400 0.01315 0.00010 0.00515 0.99475 0.75310 0.28875 0.12735 0.06520
8 Sweden D 91.66473032 2.76751020 0.72347290 0.11880 0.39640 0.17975 0.12265 0.18240 0.69495 0.35380 0.21085 0.10125 0.03890
9 Norway B 89.10931144 2.22777829 0.78393265 0.03760 0.92460 0.03775 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.54430 0.25525 0.09695 0.02540
10 England F 89.29824217 2.21098641 0.72146333 0.06030 0.62160 0.18530 0.02855 0.10425 0.86720 0.41515 0.19975 0.07820 0.02230
11 Australia D 88.82772117 2.37914531 1.01410579 0.01985 0.25445 0.26750 0.04890 0.40930 0.54180 0.17400 0.08255 0.03370 0.01035
12 Netherlands A 85.98939467 1.83137281 1.01032202 0.08330 0.18440 0.56140 0.04665 0.12425 0.82910 0.29165 0.08535 0.02560 0.00565
13 Nigeria D 86.61740038 1.86250920 0.92041257 0.04315 0.20865 0.21695 0.13005 0.40120 0.46875 0.12600 0.05435 0.01950 0.00445
14 China A 85.29454998 1.44993025 0.72491974 0.08295 0.56015 0.20465 0.00960 0.14265 0.84775 0.39900 0.08415 0.01850 0.00390
15 Spain E 84.10182972 1.56323472 1.06774429 0.06970 0.36515 0.13620 0.24020 0.18875 0.57105 0.12575 0.02970 0.00910 0.00260
16 Switzerland C 83.53711649 1.80764779 1.43446895 0.00945 0.42490 0.49140 0.05500 0.01925 0.92575 0.31550 0.06750 0.01320 0.00180
17 South Korea E 83.85353091 1.67922724 1.23861017 0.01940 0.41975 0.27600 0.06270 0.22215 0.71515 0.13915 0.02995 0.00535 0.00145
18 Cameroon C 80.57860685 1.24706908 1.31292096 0.13640 0.44980 0.40980 0.00385 0.00015 0.99600 0.29665 0.04890 0.00815 0.00120
19 New Zealand A 82.21307114 1.40862028 1.22226246 0.03335 0.15135 0.09695 0.00655 0.71180 0.28165 0.11120 0.02165 0.00495 0.00100
20 Mexico F 80.98538630 1.51460398 1.54018146 0.02655 0.17140 0.11990 0.30220 0.37995 0.31785 0.07575 0.01930 0.00390 0.00050
21 Colombia F 78.09492953 0.86605325 1.28455787 0.01555 0.12300 0.09445 0.25635 0.51065 0.23300 0.04325 0.00965 0.00150 0.00015
22 Ivory Coast B 72.99119181 1.34597855 2.56244608 0.00155 0.03610 0.29070 0.21265 0.45900 0.32835 0.02720 0.00420 0.00055 0.00005
23 Costa Rica E 73.70037787 0.87078416 1.94151969 0.00960 0.12690 0.11275 0.16390 0.58685 0.24925 0.01515 0.00125 0.00010 0.00000
24 Thailand B 67.56214244 0.87282324 2.78245234 0.00015 0.00110 0.15550 0.30225 0.54100 0.15675 0.00415 0.00045 0.00000 0.00000
25 Ecuador C 59.00849209 0.43527766 3.38737714 0.00000 0.00045 0.01240 0.00660 0.98055 0.01285 0.00050 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000

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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150611-200059.csv Normal file
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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,F,France,England,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.49057893,0.27387485,0.23554622
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.68525143,0.12701362,0.18773495
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,0.44955214,0.31018438,0.24026348
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,0.86483021,0.02930438,0.10586541
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.57868104,0.20233244,0.21898651
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,0.75345173,0.08530410,0.16124417
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.79868869,0.06061420,0.14069711
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,0.65956687,0.14405118,0.19638195
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,0.62013050,0.17159185,0.20827765
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.62116618,0.17084729,0.20798653
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00388654,0.95312168,0.04299178
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.06896257,0.78287366,0.14816376
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.19768179,0.58479561,0.21752260
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.46040551,0.30038644,0.23920805
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00403796,0.95136870,0.04459333
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.45266176,0.30736278,0.23997547
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.08684492,0.75076935,0.16238573
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.27683978,0.48714394,0.23601628
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.09304495,0.74011905,0.16683600
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.68703143,0.12585940,0.18710918
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.02831032,0.86717620,0.10451348
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.37172851,0.38473469,0.24353681
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
10 2015-06-09 F France England 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.49057893 0.27387485 0.23554622
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.68525143 0.12701362 0.18773495
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 0.44955214 0.31018438 0.24026348
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.86483021 0.02930438 0.10586541
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.57868104 0.20233244 0.21898651
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.75345173 0.08530410 0.16124417
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.79868869 0.06061420 0.14069711
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.65956687 0.14405118 0.19638195
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62013050 0.17159185 0.20827765
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.62116618 0.17084729 0.20798653
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00388654 0.95312168 0.04299178
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.06896257 0.78287366 0.14816376
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.19768179 0.58479561 0.21752260
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.46040551 0.30038644 0.23920805
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00403796 0.95136870 0.04459333
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.45266176 0.30736278 0.23997547
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08684492 0.75076935 0.16238573
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.27683978 0.48714394 0.23601628
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09304495 0.74011905 0.16683600
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.68703143 0.12585940 0.18710918
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02831032 0.86717620 0.10451348
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.37172851 0.38473469 0.24353681