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Update WWC forecast

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Jay Boice
2015-06-16 19:01:42 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150616-190139.csv Normal file
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team,group,wspi,wspi_offense,wspi_defense,group_first,group_second,group_third_advance,group_third_no_advance,group_fourth,sixteen,quarter,semi,final,win
Germany,B,95.70034207,3.75431823,0.38775410,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.82500,0.68870,0.43315,0.31280
USA,D,95.27472923,3.60698345,0.41691760,0.84265,0.13710,0.02025,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.85010,0.75050,0.44015,0.29590
Japan,C,92.21704726,2.74702985,0.54830386,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.78680,0.39660,0.23550,0.08475
Brazil,E,92.21287802,2.74900043,0.55168896,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.53295,0.29310,0.17400,0.06600
Canada,A,89.48649085,2.20473047,0.67332341,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.75195,0.42905,0.19805,0.06355
France,F,91.86524257,2.75970786,0.66401264,0.26600,0.48910,0.13755,0.00005,0.10730,0.89265,0.56365,0.27850,0.13120,0.05275
Sweden,D,91.46293885,2.68573878,0.69560211,0.07845,0.39105,0.20375,0.26755,0.05920,0.67325,0.29995,0.17870,0.08565,0.03240
Norway,B,89.02696289,2.21752966,0.79455522,0.00000,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.52720,0.25205,0.09500,0.02665
England,F,89.22908830,2.20725007,0.73653426,0.51630,0.16660,0.30570,0.00965,0.00175,0.98860,0.51715,0.17280,0.05755,0.02240
Australia,D,89.23060701,2.41777179,0.96667180,0.07425,0.45550,0.38525,0.04655,0.03845,0.91500,0.29850,0.15340,0.06225,0.02060
Netherlands,A,86.25607303,1.85880014,0.98976450,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.22610,0.07055,0.02415,0.00625
China,A,85.25455133,1.48967961,0.77701653,0.00000,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.60540,0.10930,0.01810,0.00585
Switzerland,C,83.84739945,1.94774836,1.53424908,0.00000,0.00000,0.99835,0.00165,0.00000,0.99835,0.24725,0.08320,0.01985,0.00320
Spain,E,83.90830449,1.48397841,1.01580528,0.00000,0.54665,0.01330,0.07840,0.36165,0.55995,0.19425,0.02690,0.00615,0.00240
Cameroon,C,81.48235683,1.34752078,1.27597973,0.00000,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.39460,0.04715,0.00610,0.00155
Nigeria,D,86.03600803,1.77622587,0.94234149,0.00465,0.01635,0.06140,0.01525,0.90235,0.08240,0.01490,0.00695,0.00270,0.00115
Colombia,F,80.04607031,1.05188111,1.18387122,0.21770,0.26910,0.51320,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.19315,0.03610,0.00595,0.00095
South Korea,E,83.28252220,1.67716927,1.33603797,0.00000,0.34800,0.01365,0.12570,0.51265,0.36165,0.12480,0.01790,0.00310,0.00070
Mexico,F,81.27495477,1.54422152,1.52524933,0.00000,0.07520,0.03385,0.00000,0.89095,0.10905,0.02445,0.00730,0.00135,0.00015
Thailand,B,68.30894912,0.89896963,2.71027826,0.00000,0.00000,0.24170,0.75830,0.00000,0.24170,0.00375,0.00010,0.00005,0.00000
Costa Rica,E,74.44848919,0.98077628,1.95310589,0.00000,0.10535,0.07205,0.69690,0.12570,0.17740,0.01810,0.00115,0.00000,0.00000
New Zealand,A,82.77428063,1.47330966,1.19937434,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
Ivory Coast,B,71.84341174,1.38046923,2.75918414,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
Ecuador,C,57.99573693,0.48329002,3.56375946,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
1 team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
2 Germany B 95.70034207 3.75431823 0.38775410 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.82500 0.68870 0.43315 0.31280
3 USA D 95.27472923 3.60698345 0.41691760 0.84265 0.13710 0.02025 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.85010 0.75050 0.44015 0.29590
4 Japan C 92.21704726 2.74702985 0.54830386 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.78680 0.39660 0.23550 0.08475
5 Brazil E 92.21287802 2.74900043 0.55168896 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.53295 0.29310 0.17400 0.06600
6 Canada A 89.48649085 2.20473047 0.67332341 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.75195 0.42905 0.19805 0.06355
7 France F 91.86524257 2.75970786 0.66401264 0.26600 0.48910 0.13755 0.00005 0.10730 0.89265 0.56365 0.27850 0.13120 0.05275
8 Sweden D 91.46293885 2.68573878 0.69560211 0.07845 0.39105 0.20375 0.26755 0.05920 0.67325 0.29995 0.17870 0.08565 0.03240
9 Norway B 89.02696289 2.21752966 0.79455522 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.52720 0.25205 0.09500 0.02665
10 England F 89.22908830 2.20725007 0.73653426 0.51630 0.16660 0.30570 0.00965 0.00175 0.98860 0.51715 0.17280 0.05755 0.02240
11 Australia D 89.23060701 2.41777179 0.96667180 0.07425 0.45550 0.38525 0.04655 0.03845 0.91500 0.29850 0.15340 0.06225 0.02060
12 Netherlands A 86.25607303 1.85880014 0.98976450 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.22610 0.07055 0.02415 0.00625
13 China A 85.25455133 1.48967961 0.77701653 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.60540 0.10930 0.01810 0.00585
14 Switzerland C 83.84739945 1.94774836 1.53424908 0.00000 0.00000 0.99835 0.00165 0.00000 0.99835 0.24725 0.08320 0.01985 0.00320
15 Spain E 83.90830449 1.48397841 1.01580528 0.00000 0.54665 0.01330 0.07840 0.36165 0.55995 0.19425 0.02690 0.00615 0.00240
16 Cameroon C 81.48235683 1.34752078 1.27597973 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.39460 0.04715 0.00610 0.00155
17 Nigeria D 86.03600803 1.77622587 0.94234149 0.00465 0.01635 0.06140 0.01525 0.90235 0.08240 0.01490 0.00695 0.00270 0.00115
18 Colombia F 80.04607031 1.05188111 1.18387122 0.21770 0.26910 0.51320 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.19315 0.03610 0.00595 0.00095
19 South Korea E 83.28252220 1.67716927 1.33603797 0.00000 0.34800 0.01365 0.12570 0.51265 0.36165 0.12480 0.01790 0.00310 0.00070
20 Mexico F 81.27495477 1.54422152 1.52524933 0.00000 0.07520 0.03385 0.00000 0.89095 0.10905 0.02445 0.00730 0.00135 0.00015
21 Thailand B 68.30894912 0.89896963 2.71027826 0.00000 0.00000 0.24170 0.75830 0.00000 0.24170 0.00375 0.00010 0.00005 0.00000
22 Costa Rica E 74.44848919 0.98077628 1.95310589 0.00000 0.10535 0.07205 0.69690 0.12570 0.17740 0.01810 0.00115 0.00000 0.00000
23 New Zealand A 82.77428063 1.47330966 1.19937434 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
24 Ivory Coast B 71.84341174 1.38046923 2.75918414 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
25 Ecuador C 57.99573693 0.48329002 3.56375946 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000

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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150616-190139.csv Normal file
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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,F,France,England,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.08429302,0.75521989,0.16048710
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.29737328,0.46377478,0.23885193
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.11177176,0.70920561,0.17902263
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.63976216,0.15767373,0.20256411
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.03472684,0.85236938,0.11290377
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.36219276,0.39441778,0.24338946
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
10 2015-06-09 F France England 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08429302 0.75521989 0.16048710
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.29737328 0.46377478 0.23885193
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.11177176 0.70920561 0.17902263
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.63976216 0.15767373 0.20256411
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.03472684 0.85236938 0.11290377
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.36219276 0.39441778 0.24338946