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Update WWC forecast

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Jay Boice
2015-06-13 20:54:43 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150613-205441.csv Normal file
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team,group,wspi,wspi_offense,wspi_defense,group_first,group_second,group_third_advance,group_third_no_advance,group_fourth,sixteen,quarter,semi,final,win
Germany,B,95.77228656,3.79610714,0.39700041,0.96030,0.03610,0.00355,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.81015,0.67165,0.43025,0.30540
USA,D,95.27792303,3.61074728,0.41695791,0.84690,0.13240,0.02065,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.84975,0.72865,0.42550,0.29100
Japan,C,92.47884190,2.82807919,0.55821233,0.99735,0.00265,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.79830,0.41330,0.24645,0.09400
Brazil,E,92.20725671,2.74731707,0.55115540,1.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,1.00000,0.54200,0.28460,0.17120,0.06620
Canada,A,89.70643793,2.24124018,0.66172869,0.68790,0.12310,0.18895,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.72710,0.39270,0.18140,0.06440
France,F,91.87220926,2.76214211,0.66465358,0.27650,0.48285,0.13245,0.00010,0.10810,0.89180,0.55255,0.29020,0.13885,0.05720
Sweden,D,91.47551801,2.68704173,0.69366367,0.07900,0.38630,0.21205,0.26365,0.05900,0.67735,0.30135,0.17875,0.08790,0.03405
Norway,B,89.12310223,2.22525697,0.78164990,0.03865,0.96100,0.00030,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.52600,0.26945,0.10310,0.02595
England,F,89.24995369,2.21008703,0.73556020,0.50935,0.17215,0.30915,0.00745,0.00190,0.99065,0.51555,0.17925,0.05900,0.02085
Australia,D,89.22034186,2.41588671,0.96777624,0.06965,0.46435,0.38210,0.04320,0.04070,0.91610,0.30290,0.14775,0.06055,0.02025
Netherlands,A,86.03313814,1.83638818,1.01064258,0.15475,0.10605,0.58930,0.04815,0.10175,0.85010,0.28740,0.09385,0.02740,0.00540
China,A,85.29275334,1.44839128,0.72735845,0.15735,0.50030,0.13295,0.00715,0.20225,0.79060,0.40555,0.09615,0.02175,0.00475
Switzerland,C,84.18884602,1.96153604,1.49201996,0.00150,0.69540,0.30225,0.00085,0.00000,0.99915,0.39965,0.07815,0.01455,0.00315
Spain,E,83.91841216,1.48555798,1.01885236,0.00000,0.54550,0.01410,0.07655,0.36385,0.55960,0.19460,0.03080,0.00650,0.00210
New Zealand,A,82.43161190,1.37185237,1.14903014,0.00000,0.27055,0.03345,0.00000,0.69600,0.30400,0.13960,0.02025,0.00365,0.00135
Cameroon,C,80.91884043,1.28452064,1.30238465,0.00115,0.30195,0.69560,0.00130,0.00000,0.99870,0.26255,0.05250,0.00895,0.00115
Colombia,F,80.02779959,1.04388861,1.18170335,0.21415,0.26790,0.51790,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.19185,0.03890,0.00590,0.00110
South Korea,E,83.33284253,1.68223209,1.33610864,0.00000,0.35110,0.01270,0.12640,0.50980,0.36380,0.12495,0.01710,0.00310,0.00075
Nigeria,D,86.04743612,1.77916240,0.94519729,0.00440,0.01695,0.06535,0.01300,0.90030,0.08670,0.01590,0.00695,0.00235,0.00055
Mexico,F,81.29798421,1.54318843,1.52389108,0.00000,0.07710,0.03290,0.00000,0.89000,0.11000,0.02630,0.00770,0.00145,0.00035
Costa Rica,E,74.48002721,0.98054072,1.95263815,0.00000,0.10340,0.07510,0.69515,0.12635,0.17850,0.02120,0.00120,0.00020,0.00005
Thailand,B,68.17085735,0.92048679,2.75682063,0.00095,0.00290,0.27855,0.71545,0.00215,0.28240,0.00475,0.00015,0.00000,0.00000
Ivory Coast,B,71.29559208,1.32775438,2.78149296,0.00000,0.00000,0.00065,0.00150,0.99785,0.00065,0.00005,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
Ecuador,C,55.74903536,0.49994042,3.86438563,0.00000,0.00000,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.00005,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
1 team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
2 Germany B 95.77228656 3.79610714 0.39700041 0.96030 0.03610 0.00355 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.81015 0.67165 0.43025 0.30540
3 USA D 95.27792303 3.61074728 0.41695791 0.84690 0.13240 0.02065 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.84975 0.72865 0.42550 0.29100
4 Japan C 92.47884190 2.82807919 0.55821233 0.99735 0.00265 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.79830 0.41330 0.24645 0.09400
5 Brazil E 92.20725671 2.74731707 0.55115540 1.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.54200 0.28460 0.17120 0.06620
6 Canada A 89.70643793 2.24124018 0.66172869 0.68790 0.12310 0.18895 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.72710 0.39270 0.18140 0.06440
7 France F 91.87220926 2.76214211 0.66465358 0.27650 0.48285 0.13245 0.00010 0.10810 0.89180 0.55255 0.29020 0.13885 0.05720
8 Sweden D 91.47551801 2.68704173 0.69366367 0.07900 0.38630 0.21205 0.26365 0.05900 0.67735 0.30135 0.17875 0.08790 0.03405
9 Norway B 89.12310223 2.22525697 0.78164990 0.03865 0.96100 0.00030 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.52600 0.26945 0.10310 0.02595
10 England F 89.24995369 2.21008703 0.73556020 0.50935 0.17215 0.30915 0.00745 0.00190 0.99065 0.51555 0.17925 0.05900 0.02085
11 Australia D 89.22034186 2.41588671 0.96777624 0.06965 0.46435 0.38210 0.04320 0.04070 0.91610 0.30290 0.14775 0.06055 0.02025
12 Netherlands A 86.03313814 1.83638818 1.01064258 0.15475 0.10605 0.58930 0.04815 0.10175 0.85010 0.28740 0.09385 0.02740 0.00540
13 China A 85.29275334 1.44839128 0.72735845 0.15735 0.50030 0.13295 0.00715 0.20225 0.79060 0.40555 0.09615 0.02175 0.00475
14 Switzerland C 84.18884602 1.96153604 1.49201996 0.00150 0.69540 0.30225 0.00085 0.00000 0.99915 0.39965 0.07815 0.01455 0.00315
15 Spain E 83.91841216 1.48555798 1.01885236 0.00000 0.54550 0.01410 0.07655 0.36385 0.55960 0.19460 0.03080 0.00650 0.00210
16 New Zealand A 82.43161190 1.37185237 1.14903014 0.00000 0.27055 0.03345 0.00000 0.69600 0.30400 0.13960 0.02025 0.00365 0.00135
17 Cameroon C 80.91884043 1.28452064 1.30238465 0.00115 0.30195 0.69560 0.00130 0.00000 0.99870 0.26255 0.05250 0.00895 0.00115
18 Colombia F 80.02779959 1.04388861 1.18170335 0.21415 0.26790 0.51790 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.19185 0.03890 0.00590 0.00110
19 South Korea E 83.33284253 1.68223209 1.33610864 0.00000 0.35110 0.01270 0.12640 0.50980 0.36380 0.12495 0.01710 0.00310 0.00075
20 Nigeria D 86.04743612 1.77916240 0.94519729 0.00440 0.01695 0.06535 0.01300 0.90030 0.08670 0.01590 0.00695 0.00235 0.00055
21 Mexico F 81.29798421 1.54318843 1.52389108 0.00000 0.07710 0.03290 0.00000 0.89000 0.11000 0.02630 0.00770 0.00145 0.00035
22 Costa Rica E 74.48002721 0.98054072 1.95263815 0.00000 0.10340 0.07510 0.69515 0.12635 0.17850 0.02120 0.00120 0.00020 0.00005
23 Thailand B 68.17085735 0.92048679 2.75682063 0.00095 0.00290 0.27855 0.71545 0.00215 0.28240 0.00475 0.00015 0.00000 0.00000
24 Ivory Coast B 71.29559208 1.32775438 2.78149296 0.00000 0.00000 0.00065 0.00150 0.99785 0.00065 0.00005 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
25 Ecuador C 55.74903536 0.49994042 3.86438563 0.00000 0.00000 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.00005 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000

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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150613-205441.csv Normal file
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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,F,France,England,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00400246,0.95177946,0.04421808
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.05376695,0.81213220,0.13410085
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.20910819,0.56986566,0.22102615
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.45469986,0.30551972,0.23978042
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00359543,0.95649972,0.03990484
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.46179503,0.29914216,0.23906281
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.08401280,0.75571106,0.16027614
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.29647585,0.46478119,0.23874296
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.11161491,0.70945739,0.17892770
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.64134802,0.15656742,0.20208457
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.03479952,0.85220597,0.11299452
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.36318806,0.39340119,0.24341075
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
10 2015-06-09 F France England 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00400246 0.95177946 0.04421808
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.05376695 0.81213220 0.13410085
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20910819 0.56986566 0.22102615
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45469986 0.30551972 0.23978042
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00359543 0.95649972 0.03990484
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.46179503 0.29914216 0.23906281
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08401280 0.75571106 0.16027614
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.29647585 0.46478119 0.23874296
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.11161491 0.70945739 0.17892770
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.64134802 0.15656742 0.20208457
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.03479952 0.85220597 0.11299452
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.36318806 0.39340119 0.24341075