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Add WWC match probabilities

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Jay Boice
2015-06-03 11:26:51 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/README.md
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### 2015 Women's World Cup tournament predictions
FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: `wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv`. All times are in EDT.
FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.
#### Overall forecasts
Overall forecasts are stored in files named like `wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv`.
Header | Definition
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__Note:__ These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A `win` probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.
#### Match probabilities
Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like `wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv`.
Header | Definition
---|---------
`team1_win` | The probability that team1 will beat team2
`team2_win` | The probability that team2 will beat team1
`tie` | The probability the game will end in a tie
For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, [click here](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/womens-world-cup/).
For an explanation of WSPI, [click here](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-womens-world-cup-model-works/).

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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150602-093000.csv Normal file
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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,0.60631040,0.18163693,0.21205266
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.28198239,0.48122291,0.23679471
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,0.85205770,0.03486549,0.11307681
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,0.93303357,0.00563435,0.06133208
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.58416865,0.19815679,0.21767456
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,0.71195575,0.11006236,0.17798189
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,0.68316007,0.12837415,0.18846577
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,0.68646793,0.12622442,0.18730765
2015-06-09,F,France,England,0.49540385,0.26973298,0.23486317
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.66244071,0.14210944,0.19544986
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.30909423,0.45075205,0.24015372
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,0.65239143,0.14893813,0.19867044
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.70071919,0.11709944,0.18218136
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,0.35041876,0.40654999,0.24303125
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.53949870,0.23309406,0.22740724
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.67870936,0.13128540,0.19000524
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,0.47318333,0.28902992,0.23778675
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,0.80622804,0.05674543,0.13702653
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.57582327,0.20451983,0.21965690
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,0.78403885,0.06833690,0.14762425
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.79888832,0.06051082,0.14060085
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,0.64063990,0.15706108,0.20229902
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,0.62653930,0.16700293,0.20645776
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.65077393,0.15004739,0.19917867
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00405491,0.95117263,0.04477245
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.10419151,0.72150623,0.17430226
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.20329669,0.57741985,0.21928345
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.45202932,0.30793570,0.24003498
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00473921,0.94328374,0.05197705
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.48802450,0.27607843,0.23589707
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.07662540,0.76884479,0.15452981
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.27644015,0.48760602,0.23595383
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.09493516,0.73691591,0.16814893
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.69672830,0.11963233,0.18363936
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.02389599,0.87785713,0.09824688
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.36650530,0.39002297,0.24347174
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 0.60631040 0.18163693 0.21205266
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.28198239 0.48122291 0.23679471
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 0.85205770 0.03486549 0.11307681
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 0.93303357 0.00563435 0.06133208
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.58416865 0.19815679 0.21767456
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 0.71195575 0.11006236 0.17798189
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 0.68316007 0.12837415 0.18846577
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 0.68646793 0.12622442 0.18730765
10 2015-06-09 F France England 0.49540385 0.26973298 0.23486317
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.66244071 0.14210944 0.19544986
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.30909423 0.45075205 0.24015372
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 0.65239143 0.14893813 0.19867044
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.70071919 0.11709944 0.18218136
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 0.35041876 0.40654999 0.24303125
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.53949870 0.23309406 0.22740724
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.67870936 0.13128540 0.19000524
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 0.47318333 0.28902992 0.23778675
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.80622804 0.05674543 0.13702653
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.57582327 0.20451983 0.21965690
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.78403885 0.06833690 0.14762425
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.79888832 0.06051082 0.14060085
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.64063990 0.15706108 0.20229902
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62653930 0.16700293 0.20645776
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.65077393 0.15004739 0.19917867
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00405491 0.95117263 0.04477245
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.10419151 0.72150623 0.17430226
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20329669 0.57741985 0.21928345
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45202932 0.30793570 0.24003498
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00473921 0.94328374 0.05197705
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.48802450 0.27607843 0.23589707
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.07662540 0.76884479 0.15452981
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.27644015 0.48760602 0.23595383
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09493516 0.73691591 0.16814893
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.69672830 0.11963233 0.18363936
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02389599 0.87785713 0.09824688
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.36650530 0.39002297 0.24347174