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Update WWC forecast

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Jay Boice
2015-06-11 21:02:33 -04:00
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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150611-210229.csv Normal file
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team,group,wspi,wspi_offense,wspi_defense,group_first,group_second,group_third_advance,group_third_no_advance,group_fourth,sixteen,quarter,semi,final,win
USA,D,95.43553495,3.70135193,0.43740388,0.81600,0.14530,0.03245,0.00065,0.00560,0.99375,0.87640,0.74855,0.44315,0.30765
Germany,B,95.74490750,3.79496979,0.39818237,0.95935,0.03710,0.00350,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.83180,0.62035,0.38405,0.27130
Japan,C,92.56705553,2.83757134,0.53783767,0.85905,0.12150,0.01940,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.80355,0.40575,0.23635,0.09135
Canada,A,90.08096875,2.34216677,0.67999469,0.80485,0.10840,0.06485,0.00055,0.02135,0.97810,0.75480,0.43050,0.20730,0.07500
Brazil,E,92.30759668,2.80171226,0.57745992,0.89885,0.09135,0.00775,0.00000,0.00205,0.99795,0.55125,0.30960,0.18230,0.06985
France,F,92.45551580,2.84955029,0.58505632,0.89845,0.08315,0.01355,0.00020,0.00465,0.99515,0.75800,0.29285,0.13245,0.06735
Sweden,D,91.67348096,2.76744143,0.72376205,0.12210,0.39560,0.16265,0.14280,0.17685,0.68035,0.35225,0.21295,0.10670,0.04040
Norway,B,89.12614556,2.22824436,0.78327694,0.04000,0.95985,0.00010,0.00005,0.00000,0.99995,0.54600,0.26395,0.09580,0.02535
England,F,89.30985161,2.21099574,0.72149619,0.05970,0.62085,0.18625,0.02755,0.10565,0.86680,0.41225,0.19590,0.07395,0.02045
Australia,D,88.83985540,2.37917261,1.01409992,0.02085,0.25065,0.27530,0.04450,0.40870,0.54680,0.17690,0.08330,0.03470,0.00980
Netherlands,A,86.00417257,1.83147621,1.01015106,0.07880,0.18205,0.58365,0.03670,0.11880,0.84450,0.28810,0.07725,0.02210,0.00550
China,A,85.31348551,1.45016913,0.72417529,0.08410,0.56090,0.20330,0.00755,0.14415,0.84830,0.39800,0.08455,0.01875,0.00425
Nigeria,D,86.59948862,1.85738374,0.92102236,0.04105,0.20845,0.19125,0.15040,0.40885,0.44075,0.12670,0.05310,0.01795,0.00415
Switzerland,C,83.55131315,1.80766708,1.43446437,0.00890,0.42535,0.49080,0.05515,0.01980,0.92505,0.30855,0.06650,0.01255,0.00185
Spain,E,84.11582971,1.56324581,1.06774018,0.07305,0.36495,0.12110,0.24650,0.19440,0.55910,0.12630,0.02840,0.00800,0.00160
South Korea,E,83.87341084,1.67962234,1.23800543,0.01895,0.41520,0.28330,0.05700,0.22555,0.71745,0.13320,0.03085,0.00595,0.00160
Cameroon,C,80.56638539,1.24364448,1.31347710,0.13190,0.45260,0.41295,0.00250,0.00005,0.99745,0.30550,0.04680,0.00905,0.00145
New Zealand,A,82.22749787,1.40863384,1.22225932,0.03225,0.14865,0.09910,0.00430,0.71570,0.28000,0.10795,0.01940,0.00370,0.00055
Mexico,F,80.99994761,1.51461180,1.54018059,0.02770,0.17490,0.10220,0.31695,0.37825,0.30480,0.07365,0.01835,0.00325,0.00045
Colombia,F,78.10928289,0.86600613,1.28456043,0.01415,0.12110,0.08190,0.27140,0.51145,0.21715,0.03840,0.00875,0.00165,0.00010
Costa Rica,E,73.71466064,0.87078433,1.94151844,0.00915,0.12850,0.09590,0.18845,0.57800,0.23355,0.01295,0.00140,0.00015,0.00000
Thailand,B,68.10284288,0.92246135,2.76744630,0.00055,0.00305,0.55680,0.43725,0.00235,0.56040,0.01735,0.00095,0.00015,0.00000
Ecuador,C,59.00654616,0.43526126,3.38892721,0.00010,0.00055,0.01075,0.00845,0.98015,0.01140,0.00010,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
Ivory Coast,B,71.31412391,1.32912908,2.77958007,0.00000,0.00000,0.00120,0.00115,0.99765,0.00120,0.00005,0.00000,0.00000,0.00000
1 team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
2 USA D 95.43553495 3.70135193 0.43740388 0.81600 0.14530 0.03245 0.00065 0.00560 0.99375 0.87640 0.74855 0.44315 0.30765
3 Germany B 95.74490750 3.79496979 0.39818237 0.95935 0.03710 0.00350 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.83180 0.62035 0.38405 0.27130
4 Japan C 92.56705553 2.83757134 0.53783767 0.85905 0.12150 0.01940 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.80355 0.40575 0.23635 0.09135
5 Canada A 90.08096875 2.34216677 0.67999469 0.80485 0.10840 0.06485 0.00055 0.02135 0.97810 0.75480 0.43050 0.20730 0.07500
6 Brazil E 92.30759668 2.80171226 0.57745992 0.89885 0.09135 0.00775 0.00000 0.00205 0.99795 0.55125 0.30960 0.18230 0.06985
7 France F 92.45551580 2.84955029 0.58505632 0.89845 0.08315 0.01355 0.00020 0.00465 0.99515 0.75800 0.29285 0.13245 0.06735
8 Sweden D 91.67348096 2.76744143 0.72376205 0.12210 0.39560 0.16265 0.14280 0.17685 0.68035 0.35225 0.21295 0.10670 0.04040
9 Norway B 89.12614556 2.22824436 0.78327694 0.04000 0.95985 0.00010 0.00005 0.00000 0.99995 0.54600 0.26395 0.09580 0.02535
10 England F 89.30985161 2.21099574 0.72149619 0.05970 0.62085 0.18625 0.02755 0.10565 0.86680 0.41225 0.19590 0.07395 0.02045
11 Australia D 88.83985540 2.37917261 1.01409992 0.02085 0.25065 0.27530 0.04450 0.40870 0.54680 0.17690 0.08330 0.03470 0.00980
12 Netherlands A 86.00417257 1.83147621 1.01015106 0.07880 0.18205 0.58365 0.03670 0.11880 0.84450 0.28810 0.07725 0.02210 0.00550
13 China A 85.31348551 1.45016913 0.72417529 0.08410 0.56090 0.20330 0.00755 0.14415 0.84830 0.39800 0.08455 0.01875 0.00425
14 Nigeria D 86.59948862 1.85738374 0.92102236 0.04105 0.20845 0.19125 0.15040 0.40885 0.44075 0.12670 0.05310 0.01795 0.00415
15 Switzerland C 83.55131315 1.80766708 1.43446437 0.00890 0.42535 0.49080 0.05515 0.01980 0.92505 0.30855 0.06650 0.01255 0.00185
16 Spain E 84.11582971 1.56324581 1.06774018 0.07305 0.36495 0.12110 0.24650 0.19440 0.55910 0.12630 0.02840 0.00800 0.00160
17 South Korea E 83.87341084 1.67962234 1.23800543 0.01895 0.41520 0.28330 0.05700 0.22555 0.71745 0.13320 0.03085 0.00595 0.00160
18 Cameroon C 80.56638539 1.24364448 1.31347710 0.13190 0.45260 0.41295 0.00250 0.00005 0.99745 0.30550 0.04680 0.00905 0.00145
19 New Zealand A 82.22749787 1.40863384 1.22225932 0.03225 0.14865 0.09910 0.00430 0.71570 0.28000 0.10795 0.01940 0.00370 0.00055
20 Mexico F 80.99994761 1.51461180 1.54018059 0.02770 0.17490 0.10220 0.31695 0.37825 0.30480 0.07365 0.01835 0.00325 0.00045
21 Colombia F 78.10928289 0.86600613 1.28456043 0.01415 0.12110 0.08190 0.27140 0.51145 0.21715 0.03840 0.00875 0.00165 0.00010
22 Costa Rica E 73.71466064 0.87078433 1.94151844 0.00915 0.12850 0.09590 0.18845 0.57800 0.23355 0.01295 0.00140 0.00015 0.00000
23 Thailand B 68.10284288 0.92246135 2.76744630 0.00055 0.00305 0.55680 0.43725 0.00235 0.56040 0.01735 0.00095 0.00015 0.00000
24 Ecuador C 59.00654616 0.43526126 3.38892721 0.00010 0.00055 0.01075 0.00845 0.98015 0.01140 0.00010 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
25 Ivory Coast B 71.31412391 1.32912908 2.77958007 0.00000 0.00000 0.00120 0.00115 0.99765 0.00120 0.00005 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000

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womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150611-210229.csv Normal file
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date,group,team1,team2,team1_win,team2_win,tie
2015-06-06,A,Canada,China,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-06,A,New Zealand,Netherlands,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Norway,Thailand,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-07,B,Germany,Ivory Coast,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,Sweden,Nigeria,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Cameroon,Ecuador,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,D,USA,Australia,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-08,C,Japan,Switzerland,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,F,France,England,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Spain,Costa Rica,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,F,Colombia,Mexico,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-09,E,Brazil,South Korea,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Germany,Norway,0.00000000,0.00000000,1.00000000
2015-06-11,A,China,Netherlands,1.00000000,0.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,B,Ivory Coast,Thailand,0.00000000,1.00000000,0.00000000
2015-06-11,A,Canada,New Zealand,0.68525088,0.12701398,0.18773514
2015-06-12,D,Australia,Nigeria,0.45051241,0.30931181,0.24017578
2015-06-12,C,Switzerland,Ecuador,0.86499511,0.02923422,0.10577066
2015-06-12,D,USA,Sweden,0.57874178,0.20228605,0.21897217
2015-06-12,C,Japan,Cameroon,0.75401993,0.08497879,0.16100128
2015-06-13,F,France,Colombia,0.79869323,0.06061185,0.14069492
2015-06-13,E,Brazil,Spain,0.65955528,0.14405902,0.19638569
2015-06-13,F,England,Mexico,0.62012567,0.17159532,0.20827901
2015-06-13,E,South Korea,Costa Rica,0.62132203,0.17073535,0.20794262
2015-06-15,B,Thailand,Germany,0.00399498,0.95186601,0.04413900
2015-06-15,B,Ivory Coast,Norway,0.05387276,0.81192090,0.13420634
2015-06-15,A,Netherlands,Canada,0.19771306,0.58475432,0.21753263
2015-06-15,A,China,New Zealand,0.46055756,0.30025016,0.23919227
2015-06-16,C,Ecuador,Japan,0.00403602,0.95139123,0.04457275
2015-06-16,C,Switzerland,Cameroon,0.45332704,0.30676061,0.23991234
2015-06-16,D,Nigeria,USA,0.08636689,0.75159998,0.16203313
2015-06-16,D,Australia,Sweden,0.27689333,0.48708205,0.23602462
2015-06-17,F,Mexico,France,0.09304706,0.74011547,0.16683748
2015-06-17,F,England,Colombia,0.68703595,0.12585647,0.18710758
2015-06-17,E,Costa Rica,Brazil,0.02831309,0.86716962,0.10451729
2015-06-17,E,South Korea,Spain,0.37187919,0.38458269,0.24353813
1 date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
3 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
4 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
6 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
7 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
8 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
9 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
10 2015-06-09 F France England 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
11 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
12 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
13 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
14 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.00000000 0.00000000 1.00000000
15 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000
16 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.00000000 1.00000000 0.00000000
17 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.68525088 0.12701398 0.18773514
18 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 0.45051241 0.30931181 0.24017578
19 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.86499511 0.02923422 0.10577066
20 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.57874178 0.20228605 0.21897217
21 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.75401993 0.08497879 0.16100128
22 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.79869323 0.06061185 0.14069492
23 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.65955528 0.14405902 0.19638569
24 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62012567 0.17159532 0.20827901
25 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.62132203 0.17073535 0.20794262
26 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00399498 0.95186601 0.04413900
27 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.05387276 0.81192090 0.13420634
28 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.19771306 0.58475432 0.21753263
29 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.46055756 0.30025016 0.23919227
30 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00403602 0.95139123 0.04457275
31 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.45332704 0.30676061 0.23991234
32 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08636689 0.75159998 0.16203313
33 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.27689333 0.48708205 0.23602462
34 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09304706 0.74011547 0.16683748
35 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.68703595 0.12585647 0.18710758
36 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02831309 0.86716962 0.10451729
37 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.37187919 0.38458269 0.24353813